Breaking Down the Baltimore Orioles' 2024 Starting Rotation Ahead of Opening Day

Former NL Cy Young Corbin Burnes has arrived to take the Baltimore Orioles' rotation to the next level, joining a combination of top prospects, stop-gap options and injured arms.

Feb 24, 2024; Sarasota, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) faces the Boston Red Sox. / Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 MLB regular season is about to begin, and that means it's time for every club to lock down its top five starting pitchers.

The Baltimore Orioles are fresh off their best regular season in decades, and they've reloaded this winter to try to replicate that success in 2024. While a few of their best arms remain sidelined, former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes as arrived to head things up and provide some much-needed stability at the top of the rotation.

Here is a quick preview of how Baltimore's starting pitching will look in 2024:

1. Corbin Burnes, RHP
2023 Stats: 10-8, 3.39 ERA, 1.069 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.5 WAR (MIL)
2024 Projections: 13-10, 3.78 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.2 WAR

Burnes was a full-on stud with the Milwaukee Brewers, having made the last three All-Star Games and placing top-eight in NL Cy Young voting four years in a row. He won the award in 2021 and was one of the hottest commodities on the trade market this offseason, so the Orioles were willing to pay a premium to get him to lead their pitching staff for the foreseeable future.

2. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP
2023 Stats: 7-4, 4.35 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 WAR
2024 Projections: 12-9, 3.66 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.8 WAR

Injuries and inconsistencies clouded what was an otherwise really solid rookie season for Rodriguez, but those issues could very easily be in the rear-view mirror. As a former top prospect with elite stuff at his disposal, it likely won't take long for Rodriguez to reach All-Star status in the big leagues.

3. Tyler Wells, RHP
2023 Stats: 7-6, 3.64 ERA, 0.986 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 1.8 WAR
2024 Projections: 5-5, 4.50 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 0.4 WAR

Wells has served as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter for two years in a row now, and while it seemed as if he wouldn't need to fill that role again in 2024, injuries to other arms have kept him right where he's been. If he can replicate his production from 2023, that won't be a problem for the O's.

4. Dean Kremer, RHP
2023 Stats: 13-5, 4.12 ERA, 1.309 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.5 WAR
2024 Projections: 10-11, 4.55 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 WAR

It took some time for Kremer to adjust to the big leagues, but he proved in 2022 and 2023 that he has what it takes. He has tossed roughly 300 innings with a 3.74 ERA over the past two seasons, so there's no reason he can't be a reliable innings-eater again in 2024.

5. Cole Irvin, LHP
2023 Stats: 1-4, 4.42 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 0.2 WAR
2024 Projections: 5-5, 4.33 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 0.4 WAR

Irvin started 30 games for the Oakland Athletics in both 2021 and 2022, and his 4.11 ERA across those two seasons was certainly respectable. He was a sixth starter and middle reliever upon his arrival in Baltimore in 2023, however, and he is probably going to return to that role once everyone else gets healthy.

Kyle Bradish suffered a sprained UCL at the start of Spring Training, so instead of leading the rotation, he won't be ready for the start of the regular season. John Means is also dealing with an elbow issue and will open 2024 on the injured list.

Once Bradish and Means return to full strength, Irvin and Wells will likely be bumped out of the rotation.

All 2024 projections are compiled using FanGraphs' Steamer model.

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