Breaking Down the Tampa Bay Rays' 2024 Starting Rotation Ahead of Opening Day

The Tampa Bay Rays have picked out their top five starting pitchers to open 2024, leaning on Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale while Shane McClanahan and several others remain sidelined.

Mar 11, 2024; Port Charlotte, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Zach Eflin (24) throws a pitch in Spring Training. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 MLB regular season is about to begin, and that means it's time for every club to lock down its top five starting pitchers.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been able to cobble together some elite rotations over the years, despite significant injuries and constant payroll limits. Tampa Bay will have to face similar obstacles this season, with a handful of top candidates banged up, putting even more pressure on their fliers and prospects to take major leaps.

Here is a quick preview of how Tampa Bay's starting pitching will look in 2024:

1. Zach Eflin, RHP
2023 Stats: 16-8, 3.50 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 3.5 WAR
2024 Projections: 12-10, 3.65 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.4 WAR

One year ago, the Rays had just extended themselves to pay for Eflin on the open market, taking a risk on the righty following seven solid seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies. Eflin immediately showed that he has the ability to hold down a spot in the top half of a contender's rotation, although his showing in the 2023 AL Wild Card Series didn't live up to his 2022 playoff run with the Phillies.

2. Aaron Civale, RHP
2023 Stats: 7-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 WAR
2024 Projections: 9-9, 4.17 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 1.9 WAR

The Rays did not get what they wanted out of Civale down the stretch last season, as his ERA exploded following the trade deadline deal with the Cleveland Guardians. His 5.25 ERA in Spring Training hasn't shown the turnaround many were hoping for, but he still has a strong enough resume to be relied upon as a top-half of the rotation arm.

3. Zack Littell, RHP
2023 Stats: 3-6, 4.10 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 1.0 WAR
2024 Projections: 8-10, 4.69 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 0.6 WAR

Tampa Bay made Littell a part-time starter after picking him up off waivers from the Boston Red Sox last spring, and he put together a solid campaign as a result. He had previously been a reliever for the San Francisco Giants and Minnesota Twins, but the Rays will once again ask him for much more production and innings-eating in 2024.

4. Tyler Alexander, LHP
2023 Stats: 2-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.114 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 0.2 WAR (DET)
2024 Projections: 3-4, 4.56 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 0.0 WAR

Alexander is a beneficiary of all the Rays' injuries, as he likely would have remained a relief pitcher if everyone had been at full strength. He is probably going to bounce around roles in 2024, serving as an opener and long-reliever at different points of the year, depending on who else becomes available.

5. Ryan Pepiot, RHP
2023 Stats: 2-1, 2.14 ERA, 0.762 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 1.3 WAR (LAD)
2024 Projections: 8-9, 4.45 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 0.8 WAR

Pepiot was probably the biggest piece the Rays got back when they traded Tyler Glasnow to the Los Angeles Dodgers in December. The 26-year-old has just 78.1 major league innings under his belt, but he has been efficient in that time, in addition to his previous minor league prowess.

Shane Baz and Taj Bradley were both expected to compete for spots in the Rays' starting rotation, but the former is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery and the latter is dealing with a strained pectoral. Shane McClanahan, who surely would have been Tampa Bay's ace, underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs are less than a year removed from UCL surgeries of their own.

All 2024 projections are compiled using FanGraphs' Steamer model.

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