Posting Decision Expected Soon on Superstar Japanese Pitcher Roki Sasaki

Roki Sasaki would be one of the top free agents on the market if he were headed to MLB this offseason, but his fate still lies in the hands of the Chiba Lotte Mariners.

Mar 20, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Japan starting pitcher Roki Sasaki (14) delivers a pitch during the first inning against Mexico at LoanDepot Park. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Chiba Lotte Marines' decision on whether or not to post Roki Sasaki to MLB free agency is expected to be announced in the next few days, Francys Romero reported Thursday morning.

Sasaki turned 23 years old last week and has only played four seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball. There have been conflicting reports coming out about Sasaki's chances of leaving Japan this winter, which seem like they could be answered as soon as this week.

There are multiple paths to the big leagues for Sasaki, and which one he is allowed to take could shift the future of multiple franchises.

Since he is currently younger than 25 years old, Sasaki would be subject to international bonus pool restrictions. That means he would be capped at a $2.5 million signing bonus if he is posted prior to Dec. 15 and a $7 million signing bonus if he is posted after that.

Sasaki would then have a 45-day window to negotiate with MLB teams, and the Los Angeles Dodgers would surely be among them.

However, if Sasaki waits two more years, there will not be any limits on the amount of money he or the Marines could earn from an MLB team. Yoshinobu Yamamoto took that route last offseason, and he would up scoring a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers that also netted the Orix Buffaloes a $50.6 million release fee.

Sasaki would still be subject to the posting system until the 2030 offseason, and it appears very unlikely he waits anywhere near that long considering the hype he has at the moment.

The Chiba Lotte Marines' decision on Roki Sasaki is expected to be announced in the next few days.

Several executives believe it could be as soon as this week.

— Francys Romero (@francysromeroFR) November 7, 2024

Sasaki is 30-15 with a 2.02 ERA, 0.883 WHIP and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings since turning pro in 2019. He also went 1-0 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.174 WHIP and 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, winning a Gold Medal with Japan.

The 6-foot-4 righty is already a two-time NPB All-Star, having pitched a perfect game and broken NPB's single-game strikeout record in 2022.

Even if Sasaki doesn't get posted, that doesn't mean there won't be any Japanese on the market.

Tomoyuki Sugano is coming over to MLB after a successful 12-year career with the Yomiuri Giants. The Chunichi Dragons are posting Shinnosuke Ogasawara as well, and he has already drawn interest from the Mets, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.

Their arrival comes in the wake of Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga signing with the Dodgers and Cubs, respectively, last offseason.

Whether or not the Marines let Sasaki walk, the wave of Japanese pitchers coming to MLB doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

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