'Cub Your Enthusiasm': Rebuilding Chicago Cubs are Far from Contending

The Chicago Cubs have a winning record of 19-14 since the All-Star break, and prior to Thursday's loss, had won their last six series. Some are speculating that with a strong finish to the 2022 season, Cubs' president Jed Hoyer could be well-positioned to spend big in free agency this winter, and that the team could contend in 2023. Some are drawing comparisons to the 2014 Cubs, but the Cubs are far from contention, and spending big this offseason would be a mistake.

The Chicago Cubs are 19-14 since the All-Star break, and prior to Thursday's loss, had won their last six series.

Jordan Bastian, who covers the Cubs on MLB.com penned a piece Thursday titled, 'Thrilled' Hoyer sees flashes of 2014 Cubs in '22 club.'

In year three of their rebuild, the 2014 Cubs showed enough promise down the stretch of that season, that the front office believed the team was ready to turn a corner in 2015. The Cubs finished the 2014 season 30-28 over their final 58 games.

“The overall record wasn’t impressive but the last couple months were impressive,” Hoyer said of 2014. “And it definitely gave us the confidence that what we were building on top of was starting to be real."

That winter, then-president of baseball operations Theo Epstein cut ties with manager Rick Renteria and made a splash, bringing in two-time American League Manager of the Year Joe Maddon. He traded for veterans Dexter Fowler and Miguel Montero and inked three-time All-Star Jon Lester to a six-year, $155 million deal. The next season, the new-look Cubs won 97 games and reached the National League Championship Series.

After winning their last six series in 2022, there appears to be a growing sense of optimism on the north side of Chicago, and some are drawing comparisons to where the Cubs stood in 2014.

“I’d love to finish strong that way I felt in 2014,” Hoyer said. “I’d love to feel that way. We’ve been playing really, really good baseball. In spite of the fact that we traded — I traded — our bullpen away.

“These guys have been stepping up. It’s really encouraging to watch. In a way, it’s sort of similar to 2014. It gave us confidence going into the offseason that what we were building on was fairly close.”

The 2014 Cubs were an extremely different group than the team Hoyer has fielded in 2022. 

In 2014, the Cubs called up MLB.com top-100 prospects Jorge Soler and Javier Báez and already had young All-Star infielders Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro on their big league roster. At the time, Chicago had blue-chip prospects Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora Jr. not far from coming up to the show and making an immediate impact.

Fast forward to the present, and Hoyer, to his credit, has drastically improved the Cubs' farm system over the past year, since taking the reigns from Theo Epstein.

Entering 2021, the Cubs had MLB.com's 22nd-ranked farm system. Earlier this week, Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra released their 2022 midseason rankings, on which the Cubs were 10th. The Cubs now have a top-10 farm system that has the potential to eventually churn out high-impact players akin to Bryant, Russell, Schwarber and Almora, but patience is of the essence.

Currently the Cubs' best prospects are still far from a big league call-up.

The Cubs have three top-100 prospects, outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong (no. 31), Brennen Davis (no. 51) and Kevin Alcantara (no. 91). Crow-Armstrong, 20, is currently in high-A South Bend and most likely won't receive a call up to the show until 2024, at the earliest. Alcantara, currently in Single-A Myrtle Beach, is on a similar track. Davis just recently returned to baseball activity, after missing the bulk of the season with a back injury. He's played just 22 games in 2022. He's currently at South Bend with Armstrong, and while he could receive a September call-up, most likely won't be a featured player for the Cubs until 2023.

Just two other of the Cubs' top 10 prospects — pitcher Jordan Wicks and outfielder Alexander Canario — are on track for a 2023 call-up.

Cubs fans will get to see a glimpse of the future next summer when some of the franchise's most promising young players reach the show, but the team is still far from contending, and spending big this winter on free agents would be counter-productive.

This winter's free agent class could be headlined by stars Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. With three top-100 outfield prospects and outfielder Canario as a potential 2023 call-up, breaking the bank on Judge would block the development of some of the Cubs' best young players.

The Cubs appear to be set at shortstop, too. Nico Hoerner leads National League shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved (12) this season and is slashing .291/.340/.747 with seven home runs, 41 RBI, 14 stolen bases and 4.1 Wins Above Replacement. Hoerner, 25, is owed just $720,000 this season and is under club control through 2025. He's a prime candidate for an extension.

25-year-old second baseman Nick Madrigal has been an integral part of the Cubs' recent success, batting .300 with a .382 On Base Percentage since his return from injury August 4. The Cubs are 13-10 since injecting a healthy Madrigal into the club's daily lineup. 'Nicky Two-Strikes' is under club control through 2026.

The Cubs don't need a high-priced middle infielder or an outfielder.

Pushing forward and signing a star would make sense, if the Cubs were in fact ready to compete in 2023, which they don't appear to be. Prior to their recent stretch, the club lost nine in a row in July and had a ten-game losing streak in June. With their schedule hardening, they're overdue for another losing skid.

The Cubs' recent stretch is a small sample size. Chicago capitalized on a weak schedule over the last several weeks, ganging up on the struggling Milwaukee Brewers (8-14 over their last 22) and the lowly Miami Marlins (54-70), Cincinnati Reds (48-75) and Washington Nationals (42-83), twice. Despite catching several weak teams at the right time, the Cubs didn't exactly clean up on their schedule, winning 12 of 20 games over that stretch. Good, but not great. They played well, but didn't play the way a contending team would.

The National League's second wild card team, the Philadelphia Phillies, on the other hand, have maxed out on a thin schedule this summer, the way a contending team should. Since the start of June, they're 48-26.

The Cubs will have a chance to show what they're really made of over their upcoming nine-game road trip, visiting Milwaukee, St. Louis, and being without 'three or four' unvaccinated players in Toronto next week.

It would make more sense for the Cubs to remain patient, let their young talent develop, and target the 2024 and 2025 free agent classes, when Shohei Ohtani and other stars are set to hit the open market. The Cubs will need more time to develop young players and identify the team's needs.

The 2022 Cubs (54-71) mirror the 2012 Cubs (61-101) more than they do the 2014 Cubs.