MLB Insider Claims San Diego Padres Star Juan Soto is 'Almost Certain' to Get Traded

Juan Soto may be one of the most productive young players in baseball, but The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal says the San Diego Padres will trade him this offseason.

The San Diego Padres are more than likely going to trade star outfielder Juan Soto this offseason, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported Tuesday morning.

In Rosenthal's own words, Soto is "almost certain to be traded." Rosenthal went a step further with his analysis, claiming in his notebook that there isn't much doubt about Soto's fate in San Diego.

"The question is not whether Soto will be traded. The question is which team will acquire him."

- Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic

Rosenthal chalks the Padres' intentions of trading Soto up to their payroll goals for next season, as well as their desire for pitching. 

San Diego, which has spent the past three seasons above the luxury tax threshold, is currently projected to have $189 million on the books for next season, per Fangraphs. Rosenthal is reporting that the club would like to keep that figure under $200 million.

Meanwhile, three of the Padres' top-four starters – Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha – as well as three of their top five relievers – Nick Martinez, Luis Garcia and Josh Hader – are all free agents. To bring any of those pitchers back, or even replace them with other arms out on the market, would put San Diego right up against the luxury tax threshold yet again.

Soto is projected to have the highest 2024 salary of any player who is arbitration-eligible this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors predicted in October that Soto would net $33 million in his final year before hitting free agency.

Despite Soto's production in his brief time with the Padres, the writing appears to be on the wall for the 25-year-old corner outfielder. By signing Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Yu Darvish to big money deals, the franchise essentially boxed itself out of retaining Soto in the long term.

Soto played in all 162 games in 2023, blasting a career-high 35 home runs while leading the National League in walks for the third season in a row with 132. He hit .275 with a .930 OPS and a 5.5 WAR.

Ever since he debuted with the Washington Nationals in 2018, Soto has been one of the best hitters in baseball. He was runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year that season, then he finished ninth in NL MVP voting en route to a World Series ring in 2019.

Soto earned his first of four consecutive Silver Slugger Awards in 2020, all while finishing fifth in NL MVP voting. Soto was runner-up for NL MVP in 2021, and after getting dealt to the Padres midseason in 2022, he finished sixth for the honor in 2023.

The left-handed slugger out of the Dominican Republic has the fourth highest OPS since entering the league at .946, and he ranks ninth in fWAR in that same span.

It remains to be seen what the Padres can get in exchange for Soto, given their potential lack of leverage in negotiations. Soto's impending free agency could also complicate his value, although whoever trades for him would likely only do so with a guarantee that he signs an extension.

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