My Two Cents: I Get Rays Selling, But Why Not for 2025?

The pitching-depleted Tampa Bay Rays have been spinning their wheels throughout 2024, so it's no surprise they became sellers Friday when they traded Randy Arozarena and Zach Eflin. But why?

Tom Brew | Jul 26, 2024

Tampa Bay outfielder Randy Arozarena poses after hitting a home run. He was traded to the Seattle Mariners on Friday. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

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ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — There is no joy in RandyLand. Mighty Randy Arozarena has checked out.

There was quite a somber tone out in the left field bleachers at Tropicana Field on Friday night prior to the Tampa Bay Rays taking on the Cincinnati Reds in the first of a weekend three-game series. Friday nights at the Trop are supposed to be a party, when fans having fun with left fielder Randy Arozarena, who's been a Rays fan favorite since joining the club for that incredible postseason run in 2020.

Left field. That's RandyLand. But not any more.

Arozarena's chapter with the Rays ended Friday, when the front office — whom we always trust to know best — traded him to the Seattle Mariners for two minor-leaguers at the Class A level, and a player to be named later.

The move answered the question emphatically. Are the Rays, who have been stuck at .500 for what seems like months now, buyers or sellers in 2024?

The answer, clearly, is seller, especially after they went ahead and traded starting pitcher Zach Eflin to the Baltimore Orioles later on Friday. Does this suprirse me? No, not at all. I expected them to move veteran pieces that were about to get very expensive, and they have. The 29-year-old Arozarena makes $8.1 million this year, but is arbitration eligible in 2024. Next year's number? Probably in the $13-14 milliion range. The last year of Eflin's three-year deal is $18 million.

The Rays, after some serious soul-searching, didn't deem Randy to be a worthy long-term investment. To be honest, I don't blame them. Sure, he has a nice smile and some cute poses, but he's struck out nearly 600 times since the start of the 2021 season, he's a liability defensively in left field — the easiest position to play in baseball — and he's hitting .211. His April and May were brutal — .112 and .178 averages — and though he's been better since, this is still going to be a below-average year.

And when he turns 30 next February, how much of a long-term future does he have?

To me, that was always the question the Rays had to answer during this July trade deadline period. Who's really here for the long-term? You can replace Arozarena with Amed Rosario — he's hitting .311 — and not really miss a beat. You can replace Eflin with Jeffrey Springs, who's looked great in his rehab starts — and still be knocking at the door in 2024.

My only concerns with the trades? Their prospect haul is TOO FAR out there. I've heard great things about the two Mariners kids, but they are 2026 big-leaguers at the earliest. I'm still learning about the Orioles prospects.

To me, I really thought that Rays might move guys now for players who could help in 2025. Here's why: When April rolls around and Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and either Shane Baz or Ryan Pepiot are your five starters, you have the BEST rotation in baseball. The Rays are serious contenders in 2025 — and they should be thinking that way in the front office.

But are they?

I get that walking away from Eflin and Arozarena saves $30 million or more in 2025, and the rest or the current roster is still very affordable. Keep all those best bullpen pieces and maybe get a bat or two, and they are just as good as any team in baseball.

I have faith, of course, in McClanahan, Rasmussen and Springs returning to past form. I predicted Taj Bradley would become a star in 2024, and he has. I have faith in manager Kevin Cash, his staff and the Rays' front office.

i just thought we'd see a few 2025 pieces out of these trades. Some of you might now that I co-own our Seattle Mariners site here on Sports Illustrated too, so I see all of our stories on their minor-league prospects too. They have a catcher named Harry Ford who's their No. 2 overall prospect, and he's doing well in Double-A now. I thought that might have been a better target for the catching-starved Rays, especially since he's blocked by Cal Raleigh on his way to the big leagues.

And the Eflin move was a little surprising because it's inside the American League East. If you're on my page — as many of you often are — I think 2025 is a battle between the Orioles and Rays in the AL East. (I'm still fully convinced the Yankees have a boat load of problems.) Why you you help our biggest rival with immediate pitching depth in exchange for another year down the road?

I figured 2024 would be something of a wash for the Rays, especially with all that pitching out. To be honest, I think it's a miracle they are still at .500 considering they've been a bad defensive team, still run the bases worse than anyone in baseball and have had many long stretches with bad bullpen nights.

They also don't hit much. Sure they're only four games out of the wild-card heading into Friday night, but there are eight teams in the AL with a better record. Their schedule is not easy, either.

I very much want to be in ''wait till next year'' mode with the Rays, because I really want to see that pitching staff all healthy and dealing nasty stuff night after night. The Rays have made the playoffs five years in a row, and I'd like to see that be a regular thing.

The Rays are forced to work on a shoestring budget, and they do the best they can. The Arozarena trade? Was that the best they could do? Maybe, but we certainly won't know who won that trade until 2026 at the earliest. Same with the Eflin deal.

There's living in the future — and wishing the future was right around the corner. We'll just have to let it all play out now.

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