My Two Cents: When Grayson Rodriguez Deals, He Provides October Hope For Orioles

Grayson Rodriguez picked up his 10th win for the Baltimore Orioles in a 2-0 win over the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night. When he's on, he's simply been spectacular. His sparkling outing provides hope for postseason success.

Tom Brew | Jul 3, 2024

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Grayson Rodriguez threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings in a 2-0 win over the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night. / Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

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Baltimore Orioles

SEATTLE — Raise your hand if you picked the Baltimore Orioles to win the World Series this year. (My hand is raised.) But would you raise your hand now, in early July?

They have the scariest lineup in baseball from top to bottom, and they lead all of baseball by a wide margin in home runs. But they also have flaws, and some flaws are so big they could ruin their season.

For as good as they are, they simply do not have enough starting pitching. Injuries have decimated their rotation, and the fragile Orioles fan base isn't handling that well. Kyle Bradish and John Means are done for the year with elbow injuries, and Dean Kremer has missed half the season, though he will start here Wednesday after making just nine starts so far. Their replacements have been average at best. And that's probably being too nice.

You can dream about October successes — and have October nightmares — in early July. It's just how baseball works. But on Tuesday night, Orioles Nation slept well after another brilliant outing by right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. He pitched 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Seattle Mariners, allowing just two hits and striking out eight in Baltimore's 2-0 victory.

Baltimore needs Rodriguez to be great like he was on Tuesday. He's that important. Like postseason life-or-death important.

The Orioles (54-31) have the best record in the American League. Only the Philadelphia Phillies at 56-29 are better in all of baseball. But the Orioles won a lot of games last year too, 101 to be exact while winning the American League East by two games over the Tampa Bay Rays. And they got drummed out of the playoffs in a three-game sweep by the Texas Rangers when their starting pitching imploded.

Corbin Burnes, acquired in the offseason from the Milwaukee Brewers, is Baltimore's proven ace. He's had 13 quality starts in 17 appearances, which just doesn't happen anymore. He's a Game 1 starter in the postseason for sure.

And the Orioles desperately need Rodriguez to fit the part of a No. 2.

Like very, very desparately.

He certainly played the role well on Tuesday night. He's 10-3 now in 15 starts, and when he's on, he's practically unhittable. He has had the occasional stinkers though, giving up seven runs in losses to Houston (June 21) and the Los Angeles Angels (April 23). His other loss was at home against Boston on May 28, when he gave up four runs.

But here's how good he's been otherwise. In his 12 other starts, he's given up two runs or less EVERY SINGLE TIME. Counting Tuesday, he's covered 73 2/3 innings in those 12 games and allowed just 16 earned runs. That's a 1.95 ERA, which would lead all AL pitchers if statistics could be manhandled this way.

That's some impressive stuff. And at his best, he's that good.

It will take an epic collapse in the second half for the Orioles to not make the playoffs. And I don't see that happening with this lineup full of thumpers, especially with an 8.5-game cushion presently in the standings.

So then it will be all about October.

And it will be all about starting pitching.

In last year's ugly sweep, Baltimore's starters — including Rodriguez — were brutal. They only got eight innings total from their starting pitchers over the three games, and they allowed 13 runs for an eye-popping 14.63 ERA. They were outscored 21-11, and their first postseason series since 2014 was a complete embarrassment. It mattered very little that the red-hot Rangers went on to win the World Series.

The Orioles never used age as an excuse, but it is a very clear fact. They were a very young team a year ago, and it was the first taste of pressure-paced baseball for all of their young stars. They certainly feel like they've learned from it, and you'd presume they will handle it better this October.

But we won't know that until October, of course. What Rodriguez gave the Orioles Tuesday night, though, was a big dose of optimism. Still, we're all smart enough to realize that it is still just July 2. There is still a lot of baseball — and a trade deadline — that needs to play out.

Bottle it, please. And pop that cork back open in October. It's when the Orioles will need Grayson Rodriguez the most.

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