Projecting Chicago Cubs' Starting Rotation Following Matthew Boyd Signing

Matthew Boyd joining the Chicago Cubs on a two-year contract gives the team five solid starting pitchers to lean on in 2025, starting with Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga.

Sep 16, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Matthew Boyd (16) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

With Opening Day still four months out, the Chicago Cubs might already have their starting rotation locked down for 2025.

The Cubs signed veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd to a two-year, $29 million contract on Monday. Reports surfaced shortly after that Chicago's front office was aggressively pursuing relief pitchers, signalling that they are ready to pivot away from focusing on starters.

Boyd's arrival comes in the wake of Kyle Hendricks' departure, marking an end to his 11-year stint with the Cubs. Hendricks signed with the Los Angeles Angels in November, looking to build upon the 270 starts and 22.6 WAR he racked up in Chicago.

With Boyd walking in the door and Hendricks' out, here is what the Cubs' rotation looks like heading into 2025:

SP: Justin Steele
SP: Shota Imanaga
SP: Jameson Taillon
SP: Javier Assad
SP: Matthew Boyd

Steele is the Cubs' unquestioned ace, considering the 29-year-old is 25-17 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.199 WHIP, 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings and a 7.8 WAR over the last three seasons. While he did not make an All-Star appearance and place top-five in Cy Young voting in 2024 like he did in 2023, Steele still posted a 3.07 ERA and 1.099 WHIP across 24 starts.

Imanaga was stellar this past season as well, making an All-Star appearance as a 30-year-old rookie. The Japanese left-hander finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting and fifth in NL Cy Young voting after going 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.1 WAR in his 29 starts.

Taillon is more of a journeyman than Steele or Imanaga, but the 33-year-old has still been a staple of Chicago's rotation the past two years. In 2024, he went 12-8 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.131 WHIP and 2.2 WAR in 28 starts, besting any campaign he put together with the New York Yankees and falling just shy of his career year with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018.

Assad became a full-time starter in 2024 after showing flashes between 2022 and 2023. Even though he went 3-5 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.572 WHIP after June 1, the 27-year-old still finished 2024 with a 7-6 record, 3.73 ERA, 1.401 WHIP and 1.6 WAR.

Boyd will likely slide into the fifth spot in Chicago's rotation after going 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings and a 0.7 WAR in his seven starts with the Cleveland Guardians. He also allowed just one earned run across 11.2 innings and three starts in the postseason.

Given Assad's late-season struggles and the fact that Boyd has thrown just 214.2 total innings over the last four seasons, the Cubs will need some potential injury replacements in place.

Top prospect Jordan Wicks fits the bill, even though the 24-year-old posted a 5.48 ERA in his first taste of MLB action this season. Ben Brown and Hayden Wesneski, on the other hand, combined for a 3.73 ERA and 1.114 WHIP as part-time starters in 2024.

Those three should provide more than enough reinforcements to a group that is otherwise well-rounded, if they are needed.

And if they don't need to step into starting roles at any point in 2025, the Cubs may wind up boasting one of the best rotations in the entire National League.

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