Projecting Philadelphia Phillies' Starting Rotation in Wake of Jesús Luzardo Trade

The Philadelphia Phillies already boasted one of the most dominant rotations in baseball in 2024, and now they have added Jesús Luzardo to Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez.

Oct 5, 2024; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch against the New York Mets in the seventh inning in game one of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Citizens Bank Park. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies made their biggest move of the offseason Sunday morning, bolstering a starting rotation that was already among the best in baseball.

Jesús Luzardo came over from the Miami Marlins in a trade that cost the Phillies two prospects – shortstop Starlyn Caba and outfielder Emaarion Boyd. Luzardo's arrival comes after weeks of rumors that linked Philadelphia to Garrett Crochet and Roki Sasaki, both of which had fizzled out.

With Luzardo now in the mix, here is what the Phillies' rotation could look like entering 2025.

1. Zack Wheeler, RHP
2. Aaron Nola, RHP
3. Cristopher Sánchez, LHP
4. Ranger Suárez, LHP
5. Jesús Luzardo, LHP

Wheeler is still going to be the Phillies' unchallenged ace, coming off a season in which he finished second in NL Cy Young voting and 12th in NL MVP voting. He went 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 224 strikeouts and a 6.1 WAR across 32 starts in 2024.

Even heading into his age-35 season, Wheeler remains one of the top pitchers in baseball. He is 82-47 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a 32.3 WAR since 2018.

Nola just wrapped up his first decade in MLB – all with the Phillies – by notching his 100th career win and placing 11th in the NL Cy Young race. The 31-year-old bounced back from a spotty 2023 by going 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.199 WHIP, 197 strikeouts and a 3.6 WAR in 2024.

Sánchez, who just turned 28 years old, finished 10th in NL Cy Young voting in 2024. He went 11-9 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, 152 strikeouts, 3.4 WAR, making his first career All-Star appearance in the process.

Suárez, like Sánchez, was a first-time All-Star in 2024. The 29-year-old went 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.201 WHIP, 145 strikeouts and a 2.6 WAR.

Luzardo could ascend above Sánchez and Suárez in the rotation, but it remains to be seen how he bounces back from the back injury that ended his 2024 campaign in June. To that point, the 27-year-old southpaw was 3-6 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 58 strikeouts and a 0.9 WAR through 12 starts.

Between 2022 and 2023, however, Luzardo went 14-17 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, 328 strikeouts and a 6.1 WAR across 40 total starts.

While Taijuan Walker remains on the roster, the 32-year-old right-hander is now a candidate to get traded himself.

In 15 starts and four relief appearances this past season, Walker went 3-7 with a 7.10 ERA and -1.6 WAR. That marked a sharp dropoff from his production over the previous seven years, when he went 47-34 with a 3.86 ERA and 9.9 WAR.

If Walker doesn't get traded, he will likely open 2025 as Philadelphia's first replacement starter. Later in the season, though, that role could go to top prospects Andrew Painter or Mick Abel.

Painter is ranked as the No. 32 prospect and No. 8 pitching prospect in all of baseball. Abel may no longer be viewed as a top 100 prospect after a shaky showing in Triple-A in 2024, but he does still rank No. 5 in the Phillies' system.

Suárez is slated to hit free agency in 2026, followed by Walker and Luzardo in 2027, Wheeler in 2028, then Sánchez and Nola in 2031. Having Painter and Abel waiting in the wings gives Philadelphia some solid flexibility moving forward, depending on how the young righties fare once they reach the big leagues.

Follow Fastball On SI on social media

Continue to follow our Fastball On SI coverage on social media by liking us on Facebook and by following us on Twitter @FastballFN.

You can also follow Sam Connon on Twitter @SamConnon.