Projecting San Francisco Giants' Rotation After Shocking Justin Verlander Signing

Future Hall of Fame ace Justin Verlander signed with the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday, joining Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison at the top of their starting rotation.

Sep 20, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) delivers a pitch during the third inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The San Francisco Giants, who have been hovering around .500 for three years running now, are rolling the dice on some championship DNA.

The Giants went out and signed Justin Verlander to a one-year, $15 million contract on Tuesday, rounding out their rotation in the process. The future Hall of Famer may be entering his age-42 season, but he still brings a breath of fresh air to a pitching staff that ranked No. 19 in ERA across MLB in 2024.

With Spring Training just over a month away, here is what San Francisco's rotation is set to look like in 2025:

1. Logan Webb, RHP
2. Robbie Ray, LHP
3. Justin Verlander, RHP
4. Kyle Harrison, LHP
5. Jordan Hicks, RHP

Webb is being paid like the Giants' ace, and for good reason. After finishing 11th in NL Cy Young voting in 2022 and second in 2023, Webb placed eighth and made his first career All-Star appearance in 2024.

Leading the NL in innings pitched for the second season in a row, Webb went 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 172 strikeouts and a 3.7 WAR in 2024. The 28-year-old is now 50-35 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.144 WHIP since 2021, averaging a 4.5 WAR and 172 strikeouts a year.

The dropoff after Webb could be concerning, considering how many question marks surround most of the Giants' other options.

Ray, who San Francisco acquired in a trade with the Seattle Mariners this time last year, was an All-Star with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2017 and the AL Cy Young with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021. However, he underwent Tommy John surgery early in 2023, missing almost all of that season and returning for just seven starts in 2024.

Over the course of his career, Ray is 77-73 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.301 WHIP and 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a 17.9 WAR. He went 3-2 with a 4.70 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a 0.0 WAR in 2024, and now heads into 2025 as a 33-year-old looking to fully return to his pre-injury self.

Then there's Verlander, who also missed significant time in 2024 due to a shoulder injury. The nine-time All-Star didn't look particularly sharp when he was on the mound, either, going 5-6 with a 5.48 ERA, 1.384 WHIP, 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings and a -0.3 WAR in his 17 starts.

Still, Verlander went 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA and 3.5 WAR with the New York Mets and Houston Astros in 2023, fresh off going 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and 5.6 WAR in 2022 en route to his third AL Cy Young award and his second World Series ring.

Harrison took a slight step back in 2024 after making his MLB debut in 2023. He went 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.154 WHIP and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings during his brief debut season, then went 7-7 with a 4.56 ERA, 1.343 WHIP and 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings in his true rookie year.

Reaching 124.1 innings as a 22-year-old full-time starter is an achievement in its own right, though, so perhaps Harrison has laid the groundwork for a true breakout campaign in 2025.

Hicks is currently in line to round out the Giants' rotation, despite going through a roller coaster 2024 season himself.

San Francisco signed Hicks – a career reliever – to a four-year, $44 million contract last winter with the intention of making him a starter. He started hot, going 4-3 with a 2.82 ERA through his first 15 starts, but he went 0-4 with an 8.18 ERA between June 22 and July 23 and got demoted to the bullpen as a result.

Hicks made six consecutive scoreless relief appearances in August to salvage his season, only to suffer a shoulder injury and make just one appearance after Aug. 25.

President of baseball operations Buster Posey told reporters that he wanted the 28-year-old to return to the rotation in 2025, so it makes sense to pencil him in heading into Spring Training. But if the Giants change course and want to move Hicks back to the bullpen again, they should have another option or two joining the mix soon.

Keaton Winn showed promise with a 4.68 ERA, 1.039 WHIP and 0.3 WAR in 2023, but fell off a cliff with a 7.16 ERA, 1.373 WHIP and -1.1 WAR in 2024. Winn underwent ulnar nerve transposition surgery in July, so he may not be 100% by the start of Spring Training, but the righty could be cleared in time for Opening Day.

Left-hander Carson Whisenhunt is ranked as the top pitching prospect remaining in San Francisco's farm system, and while he struggled against Triple-A competition to the tune of a 5.42 ERA in 2024, he is a candidate to make his MLB debut in 2025.

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