Would Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs Reunion Make Sense for 2023?
Three-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove Award winner and former Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo has opted out of the final year of his two-year contract with the New York Yankees, making him a free agent to sign with any team, beginning Thursday.
Rizzo signed a two-year, $32 million contract with the Yankees last March, one year after the slugger reportedly declined a five-year, $70 million extension to remain with the Cubs.
After failing to agree to terms with Rizzo on an extension, the Cubs traded their first baseman to the Yankees for prospects Kevin Alcantara and Alexander Vizcaino.
In his first full season with the Yankees, Rizzo tied his career-high home run total with 32 long balls, and posted his highest OPS (.817) since 2019.
Rizzo will almost certainly see a pay-increase. The Yankees are expected to extend a qualifying offer worth $19.65 million. Rizzo could accept the qualifying offer, or test the free agent market again.
If Rizzo declines the qualifying offer, perhaps the Yankees would lock the 33-year-old up to a longer deal. Perhaps Rizzo would receive more money on the open market. Or perhaps Rizzo could reunite with his former team, the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs are in a rebuild and have money to spend, if the front office chooses to spend it.
Entering free agency, the Cubs have $101.51 million on their payroll for 2023, the 13th-highest payroll in Major League Baseball.
The Cubs won 74 games last season, and have a batch of promising young prospects in their farm system. They are realistically at least another year (and maybe more) away from seriously competing in the National League.
As president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer hopes to build a team that is competitive for years to come, it may be counterproductive for him to shell out a great deal of money this winter, before the club is ready to compete.
The Cubs have a number of exciting young players that should be coming up through their pipeline over the next few years. The last thing the Cubs front office should do is block those players from getting big league reps.
With Nick Madrigal and Nico Hoerner up the middle, now might not be the time for the Cubs to sign a highly-priced free agent shortstop. With a handful of highly-ranked outfield prospects in their farm system, and Seiya Suzuki entering his sophomore season, it would make little sense for the club to add a star outfielder like Aaron Judge at this time.
The Cubs have a number of intriguing pitching options for 2023 as well.
First base was a weakness for the Cubs in 2022, however. Frank Schwindel was designated for assignment after slashing .229/.277/.635 with eight home runs and 36 RBI in 75 games. Alfonso Rivas slashed .235/.322/.628 in 101 games, and does not appear to be a long-term solution at the position.
The Cubs have two intriguing first base prospects that spent most of the 2022 season in Double-A Tennessee.
Bryce Ball, who the Cubs acquired in the 2021 Joc Pederson trade with the Atlanta Braves, batted .265 with a .357 On Base Percentage, 11 home runs and 76 RBI. Ball is more likely to be a big league designated hitter, however, than a first baseman.
Matt Mervis, who went undrafted in the shortened, five-round 2020 MLB Amateur Draft, out of Duke University, slashed .291/.344/.999 in 2022.
Both Mervis and Ball have shown a great deal of promise, but have yet to reach Triple-A. It seems unlikely that either player would open the 2023 season on the big league roster, but are prime candidates for a mid-season call-up if they continue on the current trajectory both player is on. The Cubs will need a placeholder at first until one or both are ready for a Major League promotion.
Rizzo could be that placeholder. The Cubs could give him a short contract, and he could serve as a mentor to young players. But would he want to play on a retooling Cubs team instead of a 2023 contender, where he can be a difference-maker? It would be hard to take Rizzo out of the lineup if and when Mervis and Ball are called up, and it would make little sense for either player to be called up, and not be given regular repetitions to play everyday.
Rizzo might in fact be more valuable to the Yankees than he would be to any other team. Not only do the Yankees value his veteran leadership and keen ability to get on base, but Rizzo hit 29 of his 32 home runs in 2022 to right field. Many of his home runs would be fly outs at other ballparks, but the Yankees have one of the shortest right field walls in the sport. As a pull hitter, Rizzo thrived at Yankee Stadium. And with MLB banning the shift, Rizzo should have an even better season in 2023. Rizzo has made great use of the Yankees short porch.
Entering his age-34 season, Rizzo might not get many more cracks at winning another World Series. It certainly wouldn't come with the Cubs in 2023. He probably wants to play for a contender at this stage of his career.
Perhaps a reunion would make more sense for both parties when the Cubs are ready to compete in two to three years. Rizzo could come full-circle and be the "Grandpa Ross" figure on the next Cubs' contender, then retire a Cub.
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