UFC 296 Bold Predictions & Preview: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington

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UFC 296 looms, and the MMA Knockout staff has you covered with main card predictions.

It's never easy picking high-profile MMA fights. Upsets happen frequently, and there are times when two fighters are so evenly matched it becomes quite the toss-up. For the UFC's final event of 2023, the promotion has stacked the deck with some big names, even amid losing a rising Irish star for the UFC 296 card.

UFC 296 Fight Saved as Controversial Fighter Steps in on Short Notice

Headlining the show will be Leon Edwards putting his UFC Welterweight Championship at stake against Colby Covington. Alexandre Pantoja defends the UFC flyweight gold against Brandon Royval in the co-main event.

Let's skip the formalities and jump right into our main card picks for UFC 296:

Leon Edwards (c) vs. Colby Covington - for the UFC Welterweight Championship

Leon Edwards and Colby Covington are separated during the UFC 296 pre-fight press conference

Fernando Quiles Jr: Edwards showed tremendous improvement with his grappling against Kamaru Usman, so I'm sure the game plan will be on point for the Covington rematch. We all know Covington's cardio is top notch and he will look to pressure Leon, but I can't help but think of the times "Rocky" stifled Usman in that trilogy fight, and I feel he'll be able to do the same to Colby, who hasn't fought since March 2022 against a fighter who is now retired. I'm taking Leon Edwards via unanimous decision (Pick: Edwards)

Mathew Riddle: I have Edwards by whatever the hell he wants. Colby is smaller, older, weaker, his striking is lacking and I think this is his last ditch effort to get a title before retirement comes calling. He's also 35 and historically fighters this age at welterweight have an almost 0% chance of winning title fights. People are heavily underestimating Leon's takedown defense/grappling here and I see him denying Colby's game and dismantling him on the feet. (Pick: Edwards)

Drew Beaupré: It’s a title fight that seemingly no one other than Covington asked for, but at the very least he and Edwards can finally settle things in the cage. Covington is almost two years removed from his last bout and is taking on a fighter that’s coming off the two best performances of his career. I do think his pressure and wrestling might cause some problems for Edwards, but “Rocky” should retain his title and turn his attention to some of the rising contenders in the welterweight division. (Pick: Edwards)

Zain Bando: Leon Edwards will represent his country proudly Saturday night in Las Vegas, Nev. Colby Covington is getting his third crack at gold, which is rare in today's MMA landscape. While Covington may be a better wrestler, Edwards is the more well-rounded fighter and has a better resume overall, especially with back-to-back victories against Kamaru Usman. If Covington can't take Edwards down, it'll be a rough night for the "King of Miami." (Pick: Edwards)

Consensus: 4-0, Leon Edwards

Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Brandon Royval - for the UFC Flyweight Championship

UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval stare down ahead of UFC 296

Fernando Quiles Jr: Royval looks like he's shot out of a cannon in just about every fight. If he catches you with one of his wild strikes, it could mean trouble. Having said that, Royval does leave himself open often and against someone like Pantoja, I think this is where "Raw Dawg's" hot streak comes to an end. Pantoja is sharp on the feet and slick on the ground, and I'll pick him to win the rematch. (Pick: Pantoja)

Mathew Riddle: I see Pantoja coming right out of the gates with his bar-room brawling style of fighting. If Royval can't defend the onslaught, Pantoja should take his back and lock in the submission. (Pick: Pantoja)

Drew Beaupré: This is the first flyweight title fight in years that doesn’t include Brandon Moreno or Deiveson Figueiredo, but it’s a familiar matchup for both men involved. Royval has looked impressive in his three wins since losing to Pantoja, who is coming off a fantastic Fight of the Year candidate against Moreno. This bout should almost certainly feature some wild grappling exchanges, and I’ll pick Pantoja to defend his title and improve to 2-0 over Royval. (Pick: Pantoja)

Zain Bando: An under-the-radar co-main event, both of these men have been chomping at the bit to rematch one another. Alexandre Pantoja, a winner of 18 finishes, recently became the flyweight champ with an upset victory against Brandon Moreno, who had held gold on and off for the better part of two years. Pantoja has not lost since Feb. 2021 and has a win against Royval previously, which should play a factor. Both men are two of the most active fighters in the division, and there is a case for this fight to earn 'Fight of the Night' honors. 

With the bout too close for comfort, I think experience is the biggest determining factor. Although a few years separate the two, I think Pantoja does just enough to edge it out. (Pick: Pantoja)

Consensus: 4-0, Alexandre Pantoja

Stephen Thompson vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov

Shavkat Rakhmonov and Stephen Thompson face off during the UFC 296 pre-fight press conference

Fernando Quiles Jr: "Wonderboy" is a big underdog going into his scrap with Rakhmonov. Thompson can still compete with some tough foes, but against someone as well-rounded as Rakhmonov, I don't see a path for Thompson to pull this off. "Wonderboy" is also not very good against guys who can take him down consistently. I think Rakhmonov batters Thompson. (Pick: Rakhmonov)

Mathew Riddle: I'm siding with Rakhmonov here but not counting "Wonderboy" out, I believe he's conscious that this is his last chance for a title run and is probably pouring his heart and soul into preparation. I'll pick Rakhmonov with his pressure for a decision, but won't be surprised if Thompson can pull off an upset. (Pick: Rakhmonov)

Drew Beaupré: With Ian Machado Garry off the card, Rakhmonov no longer has to share the spotlight as an unbeaten welterweight contender closing in on a title shot. Thompson will be easily the biggest name he’s faced thus far, and if “Nomad” chooses to stand and trade I expect him to have to absorb some big shots like in his last bout. I still expect Rakhmonov to be too much for “Wonderboy”, and it will be interesting to see if he’s able to maintain his perfect finishing rate against a fighter that’s only been stopped once. (Pick: Rakhmonov)

Zain Bando: A high octane welterweight showcase takes place midway through the main card which could easily determine a future title challenger. Simply put, Shavkat Rakhmonov is the scariest fighter in the division and Stephen Thompson won't be able to handle Rakhmonov's striking volume. (Pick: Rakhmonov)

Consensus: 4-0 Shavkat Rakhmonov

Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett

Tony Ferguson and Paddy Pimblett lock eyes ahead of UFC 296

Fernando Quiles Jr: Much has been made about Ferguson's training with retired U.S. Navy SEAL David Goggins. While "El Cucuy" looks to have a great physique, as expected, I highly doubt this was the answer Ferguson needed to light a spark. Ferguson's decline has been apparent, and I don't think it slows down here against Paddy, who I think will be quite active and too much for the older Ferguson. If "El Cucuy" takes another loss, hopefully he strongly considers retirement. (Pick: Pimblett)

Mathew Riddle: I don't like counting Ferguson out but he's on a steep decline and MMA is merciless, even if Paddy is the worst opposition Ferguson has faced in many years. Pimblett is the young gun with something to prove after the Gordon fight, Ferguson isn't enough of a striking purist to capitalize on Pimblett's habits, and he's not agile enough to defend Pimblett's takedowns. I see Pimblett picking up a submission. (Pick: Pimblett)

Drew Beaupré: This is the kind of fight where neither man really stands to gain much with a win, but a loss for either of them would be difficult to rebound from. Ferguson’s current losing run and status as a fan favorite mean that Pimblett won’t garner much praise in victory, and even if “El Cucuy” breaks his skid it will be against an unranked fighter only four bouts into his UFC run. It’s by no means a confident pick, but I’m hoping we don’t see another Ferguson loss on Saturday night. (Pick: Ferguson)

Zain Bando: This is a bad matchup every which way you look at it. Tony Ferguson has lost six straight and is a shell of his former self since his double-digit win streak was halted in May 2020. It seems obvious to me that the UFC is just trying to let Ferguson walk away in any way he can, and Paddy Pimblett is just the next victim on that list. However, with the way the press conference went Thursday, Pimblett may be looking past the former interim lightweight champ. Nonetheless, Pimblett should be able to do enough to get a stoppage victory. (Pick: Pimblett)

Consensus: 3-1, Paddy Pimblett

Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell

Josh Emmett during Octagon introductions for his UFC fight / (via Zuffa LLC)

Fernando Quiles Jr: Banger alert. One major strength of the UFC is that when initial plans go awry, a fight is usually booked in place of it that has a high chance of delivering. Emmett vs. Mitchell should be a fun one. At the age of 38 and having lost two key fights in a row, Emmett is hoping to avoid a third defeat, and possibly staring at retirement. Mitchell is going to look to shoot and go for submissions, but I believe he will come short of a finish there. I can see Emmett successfully thwarting takedown attempts and outstriking his opponent for three rounds of solid action. (Pick: Emmett)

Mathew Riddle: I'm surprised to see Emmett as a considerable underdog considering Mitchell is coming in on short notice. Emmett has five-round experience, great power and good TDD. If Emmett can deny Mitchell's takedowns, I can easily see him picking Mitchell apart on the feet for either a TKO or a UD. (Pick: Emmett)

Drew Beaupré: It’s a shame we missed out on the Garry vs. Luque fight, but it’s not often that UFC events feature a prelim bout that can slot in on a PPV main card as easily as this one. Emmett is currently on the first two-fight skid of his entire career, while Mitchell is taking advantage of a short-notice opportunity to try and further distance himself from his only professional loss. “Thug Nasty” reminded fans how effective he can be on the ground against Dan Ige, but I expect he’s going to have a lot of trouble getting Emmett to the mat in this matchup. (Pick: Emmett)

Zain Bando: A good replacement main card opener with two men desperate to remain in title contention? Say less. Josh Emmett should be able to outbox Bryce Mitchell, stop a few takedowns and control the center of the Octagon. (Pick: Emmett)

Consensus: 4-0, Josh Emmett

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