UFC 305 Predictions: Will Israel Adesanya Dethrone Dricus du Plessis at RAC Arena?

UFC 305 is almost here, and with it comes the MMA Knockout on Sports Illustrated predictions.

Israel Adesanya and Dricus du Plessis meet face-to-face ahead of their UFC 305 title fight. / UFC

Fight fans have been looking forward to UFC 305, and the MMA Knockout on SI team is here to whet your appetite with main card predictions.

There are a lot of questions surrounding this Saturday's pay-per-view event from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Many are wondering if Israel Adesanya can prove that he's still an elite 185-pounder, while others are questioning how long the awkward style of Dricus du Plessis can remain feasible at the highest of levels.

We'll also see if Steve Erceg can take what he learned in his highly competitive title fight against Alexandre Pantoja to get to the next gear. Standing in his way will be Kai Kara-France.

There are three other main card fights to get into, so let's jump right in with our UFC 305 predictions.

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Dricus du Plessis (c) vs. Israel Adesanya - for the UFC Middleweight Championship

Israel Adesanya watches on as Dricus Du Plessis has his post-fight interview following a UFC bout. / (via Cooper Neil/Zuffa LLC)

Fernando Quiles Jr.: I won't discredit Sean Strickland's victory over "Izzy" because he was as sharp as he's ever been on that night, but it's safe to say Adesanya was off. The timing just wasn't what we're used to seeing from "The Last Stylebender." One thing Strickland did well was avoid the kicks of Adesanya, but I'm not so sure Du Plessis will be that elusive. I think it's time for Adesanya to remind everyone why he's a future UFC Hall of Famer. (Pick: Adesanya)

Mathew Riddle: I want to say Adesanya is lightyears ahead in the striking, but that logic didn't work for DDP vs. Robert Whittaker or Darren Till. Du Plessis has a remarkable ability to prove my predictions wrong, so I'm running with 'Stillknocks' this time round. (Pick: DDP)

Drew Beaupré: I’ve been guilty of underestimating Du Plessis in a number of his UFC fights, and even after he claimed the middleweight belt from Strickland it still feels like fans have some questions about how much farther his unique style will carry him. I won’t be surprised if “Stillknocks” defies his doubters once again when he meets a returning Adesanya, but I have to side with the two-time champion based on his striking skills and previous body of work. (Pick: Adesanya)

Zain Bando: This is a fight that I have been looking forward to all summer long. Adesanya is coming off a near one-year layoff and has a lot riding on the fight. He’s 4-3 in his last seven, brutally losing his title to then-champion Sean Strickland. It'll be a short night if Dricus Du Plessis can’t wrestle the former champion. (Pick: Adesanya)

Consensus: 3-1, Israel Adesanya

Steve Erceg vs. Kai Kara-France

Kai Kara-France and Steve Ercge have a staredown ahead of their UFC 305 flyweight fight. / (via Zuffa LLC)

Fernando Quiles Jr.: Having lost two straight and being out of action for over a year, this could be tough sledding for Kara-France. Erceg knows he's good enough to compete at the highest level in the flyweight division after pushing the champion Alexandre Pantoja to his limits. I see a good mix of striking and grappling from Erceg to notch a decision win. (Pick: Erceg)

Mathew Riddle: I think we saw shades of a future champion when Erceg took on Pantoja. I believe he outworks KKF on the feet for a decision victory. (Pick: Erceg)

Drew Beaupré: This is arguably the most interesting matchup at UFC 305, especially with Kara-France coming off back-to-back losses and a layoff of more than a year. Erceg may have been rushed into a title shot too quickly after kicking off his UFC career with three wins, but “AstroBoy” can put himself right back into the mix for another crack at Alexandre Pantoja with what would be the biggest win of his career. (Pick: Erceg)

Zain Bando: High-level flyweights will go to war in this one. Steve Erceg showed a lot of heart and determination, keeping it close with champion Alexandre Pantoja in May. I believe he’s destined to be a champion at some point; to do that, you have to beat a guy like Kai Kara-France to establish yourself. I think he does just enough to earn a decision win. (Pick: Erceg)

Consensus: 4-0, Steve Erceg

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker

Dan Hooker speaks during a UFC press event. / (via Zuffa LLC)

Fernando Quiles Jr.: I suppose Hooker has a puncher's chance here, but he's gonna have to avoid being smothered by Gamrot's takedown attempts. Ultimately, I don't think the "Hangman" will be able to keep Gamrot off of him throughout the fight. (Pick: Gamrot)

Mathew Riddle: It's either a grueling Gamrot UD or a late-round Hooker finish as far as I'm concerned, and I'm leaning with Gamrot. (Pick: Gamrot)

Drew Beaupré: It’s not often that fans are treated to a definitive clash of styles at such a high level of the sport, but it seems pretty clear that Gamrot and Hooker will both enter this matchup with very different game plans. Hooker got to showcase his incredible toughness during a gutsy win against Jalin Turner, but “The Hangman” is going to have a hard time fighting off repeated takedown attempts from Gamrot. (Pick: Gamrot)

Zain Bando: Not much to say here. If Mateusz Gamrot can bring the fight to Dan Hooker and outwrestle him, he should win an easy decision. But, if Hooker keeps it standing, anything is possible. The safer pick here is Gamrot, as he is still in the thick of the lightweight title picture. (Pick: Gamrot)

Consensus: 4-0, Mateusz Gamrot

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Dec 3, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Tai Tuivasa (red gloves) after the fight against Sergei Pavlovich (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Amway Center. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Fernando Quiles Jr.: If you look at Rozenstruik's losses, they've all come come against opponents who were more technically sound than him in one aspect of the game or another. "Bigi Boy" is more technical than Tuivasa, but "Bam Bam" has the power to shut anyone's lights off. With that said, I'm picking Rozenstruik here. (Pick: Rozenstruik)

Mathew Riddle: Tuivasa is relieved he's not fighting a wrestler for a change, but I don't think Rozenstruik is to be underestimated. 'Bigi Boy' can bang and he has better cardio and striking acumen than Tuivasa, leading me to choose Rozenstruik by KO. (Pick: Rozenstruik)

Drew Beaupré: There’s unfortunately a not-insubstantial chance that this matchup plays out as a slow-paced striking battle, but I’m hoping that Tuivasa’s desire to snap his four-fight skid in front of the Australian crowd will give “Bam Bam” some serious urgency when he steps into the cage. Rozenstruik is the more technical striker of the two, but it’s been far too long since we’ve gotten to see Tuivasa do a shoey after a knockout-win. (Pick: Tuivasa)

Zain Bando: Tai Tuivasa is due for a big win, and despite his struggles over the last few years, he is catching Jairzinho Rozenstruik at just the right time. I think the Aussies can’t go home happy without their hometown guy adding another highlight to the hit list, as long as he avoids the fight hitting the floor. (Pick: Tuivasa)

Consensus: 2-2, Tied

Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates

Sep 10, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Li Jingliang (red gloves) fights Daniel Rodriguez (blue gloves) during UFC 279 at T-Mobile Arena. / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Fernando Quiles Jr.: Prates utilizes distance effectively and he has a solid chin. "The Leech" leaves himself exposed when his offense opens up and if he has some ring rust due to inactivity, that would be bad news for him. (Pick: Prates)

Mathew Riddle: Big step up for Prates and it does feel like rushed matchmaking, but I give him the benefit of the doubt with Li taking such a long time off. The way Li fights puts him at risk all the time, and I fear Prates only has to find one opportunity to end the fight. (Pick: Prates)

Drew Beaupré: This is a pretty sizeable step up for Prates, but Jingliang is also making his return to the cage for the first time in nearly two years. That layoff combined with his age (36) creates some serious questions around “The Leech” at this stage of his career, and while I think Jingliang will push Prates quite a bit more than his previous UFC competition I have to pick the Brazilian to extend his current win streak. (Pick: Prates)

Zain Bando: Carlos Prates is riding huge momentum, having won nine in a row. I think Jingliang Li's layoff and his not having won a fight since 2022 will negatively impact him. Prates should have no trouble implementing his game plan and getting the job done. (Pick: Prates)

Consensus: 4-0, Carlos Prates

UFC 305: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya Full Prelim Fight Card Predictions

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