UFC 310 Main Card Predictions: Does Garry Upset Rakhmonov?

MMAKO staff pick UFC 310 main card winners.

Mathew Riddle, Christopher De Santiago, Drew Beaupre, Zain Bando | Dec 7, 2024

UFC

It's that time again; a new UFC PPV means the authors at MMA Knockout are ready to test their prediction skills.

(Since UFC 309) Drew Beaupré (@mmameditations) is currently in the lead with 4 points, while Mat Riddle (@NotMattRiddle) and Zain Bando (@ZainBando99) are tied with 3, and Christopher De Santiago(@Chris_DSantiago) is at the bottom with 1.

Let's see how UFC 310 plays out.

Landwehr vs. Choi Predictions

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Mat: I'm not too familiar with either fighter but I'm going to lean Landwehr on this one. He has the advantage of activity and grit, in my opinion. Plus, when I reviewed Choi's most recent fight against Bill Algeo, he's far too happy and lazy staying in the pocket and doesn't pull out of range fast enough. This doesn't cut the cake against a dog like Nate The Train. (Pick: Landwehr)

Chris: Landwehr vs. Choi has all the makings of a ‘fight of the year’ contender, that is, if the fight makes it out of the first round. We haven’t seen a whole lot from Choi in his time away from the Octagon, fighting twice since the COVID-19 pandemic started and I don’t think that will serve him well against someone as relentless as Landwehr who might just come out guns-a-blazing. In a battle of heart and durability, I see Landwehr getting the knockout in the first half of the fight. (Pick: Landwehr)

Drew: The UFC always tries to open Pay-Per-View cards with an action fight, and this looks to be the clear pre-event favorite for Fight of the Night honors. It was fantastic seeing “The Korean Superboy” score his first win since 2016 when he knocked out Bill Algeo in July, but I think Choi is going to be outmatched here if he doesn’t catch Landwehr with something big in the early going. (Pick: Landwehr)

Zain: This has Fight of the Night written all over it. I just think Choi’s cardio will be too much to overcome. I’ll take him to win by decision. (Pick: Choi)

Picks: 3-1 Landwehr

Mitchell vs. Gracie Predictions

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Mat: I'm positive Gracie has a main card spot because of his name legacy, and the fact they're giving Mitchell an easier fight after his nasty knockout loss to Mitchell. If Gracie's last fight against Charles Jourdain is anything to go by, Mitchell either cruises to a decision or gets a TKO. (Pick: Mitchell)

Chris: It’s BJJ vs. BJJ in this fight but I don’t see the fight taking place on the ground because Mitchell’s striking should be levels above Gracie’s, not needing to take unnecessary risks despite being one of the better grapplers at 145lbs himself. I believe Mitchell outpoints Gracie to a decision in what could turn out to be a dog fight on the feet. (Pick: Mitchell)

Drew: I feel strongly that Aljamain Sterling vs. Movsar Evloev should be in this spot on the main card considering it’s also a grappler vs. grappler matchup with significantly higher stakes, but this fight should still be an entertaining one. I can’t pick against a two-time IBJJF champion if this fight does largely take place on the ground, and although Gracie has previously expressed some outlandish views himself, I’m hoping he spares fans from whatever “Thug Nasty” has cooked up for his post-fight interview – ideally by establishing “seatbelt” position on Mitchell’s back before he locks up a rear naked choke. (Pick: Gracie)

Zain: I simply don’t think Kron Gracie is that impressive, and despite his controversial pre-and-post-fight presser remarks, Bryce Mitchell is just better everywhere, and I see this fight not hitting the floor. Again, this is MMA, not grappling. (Pick: Mitchell)

Picks: 3-1 Mitchell

Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov Predictions

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Mat: The revisionism is insane with Ciryl Gane, up until his Jon Jones loss he was touted as one of the next best things at UFC heavyweight, and as far as I'm concerned he's just a step below Tom Aspinall; If only Gane was more active! Volkov has improved leaps and bounds but I'm expecting Gane to strike at range and befuddle the Russian giant for a unanimous decision win. (Pick: Gane)

Chris: Alexander Volkov was outstruck by Gane the last time they met, failing to make it anything other than a point-fight in which Gane narrowly led the dance for five rounds. I don’t think Volkov makes the same mistake again, I’m expecting a much tactical approach from Volkov, utilizing his ground game where Gane has shown weakness before and keeping him guessing on the feet where he did find success three years ago. Volkov will have be perfect on his takedown entries, not getting caught by Gane’s counters. It won’t be easy but I expect Volkov is a smart enough fighter to figure out Gane the second time around but he’ll have to use all his tools to keep his winning streak alive. (Pick: Volkov)

Drew: The heavyweight division is still in a holding pattern right now while the UFC figures out what to do with Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall, but the winner of this fight should be in line for a title shot. I’d love to see Volkov utilize his underrated ground game and exploit Gane’s grappling the way both Jones and Francis Ngannou did, but based on their previous meeting this has all the makings of a slow-paced kickboxing match that favors “Bon Gamin”. (Pick: Gane)

Zain: Gane is better everywhere. He has championship experience and better knockout power. I see him finding the chin early, getting Volkov out of there within the first 3:30 of the fight. (Pick: Gane)

Picks: 3-1 Gane

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Garry Predictions

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Mat: There is some serious Rakhmonov bias going round, and I think many people are forgetting how much he was being tagged by Geoff Neal, and how much he struggled with Stephen Thompson's range. As much as I rate 'Nomad', I think he's clinging on to the victories he's had over Garry in sparring, which mean literally nothing in a professional context. I'm going to give it to Garry to stick and move and keep Rakhmonov at range for the full duration. (Pick: Garry)

Drew: He hasn’t been running through opponents as of late the way Rakhmonov has, but I feel like Machado Garry’s skill in the cage has been overshadowed by his trash talk and feuds with other fighters. While I do agree that Rakhmonov should be the favorite here, I think the odds are too steep and am willing to roll the dice on an upset win from “The Future” to set up a welterweight title fight with Belal Muhammad. (Pick: Garry)

Chris: This fight is the most interesting on the card. Neither Garry or Rakhmonov have suffered a defeat nor been to rounds 4 or 5. Garry’s a future champion, that much is clear to me with what we’ve seen from him in Cage Warriors and 8 fights in the UFC. But, I think it’s a little bit too early for Garry at 27 years old with more room to grow, despite him being at a high level already. I believe Shavkat Rakhmonov to be just a tiny bit better everywhere. I think Rakhmonov takes the opening 3 rounds with Garry having to play catch-up in rounds 4 & 5 for what would be Rakhmonov’s first time seeing the scorecards. (Pick: Rakhmonov)

Zain: This is an awesome fight. Undefeated vs. undefeated, so someone’s zero has to go. Rakhmonov is the best welterweight without the title at present, in my opinion. His non-decision streak is nothing to sweat at either, which is why I feel he does enough to submit Garry inside of 15 minutes. (Pick: Rakhmonov)

Picks: Tied 2-2

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura Predictions

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Mat: To me, Pantoja is one of the most under-appreciated pound-for-pound talents in the UFC. I think 'The Cannibal's' elite back-taking and grappling skills will be enough to overwhelm Asakura in the opening rounds for a submission. As much as he is exciting, Asakura is stepping down from a promotion which essentially uses a boxing ring and allows knees and kicks to ground opponents, so I think he's working against the odds when he can't use his full skillset in an unfamiliar setting. (Pick: Pantoja)

Drew: It may be a symptom of the UFC’s well-documented indifference towards the men’s flyweight division, but I love the fact that they decided to throw an established star and champion from another promotion straight into a title fight. This is certainly a tough debut for Asakura from a stylistic standpoint, and while I do expect Pantoja to win I hope the RIZIN standout at least has the chance to introduce himself to casual MMA fans with some big moments during the fight. (Pick: Pantoja)

Chris: There’s lots of question marks around Kai Asakura’s UFC debut. A year off, first fight at flyweight, first time fighting in the Octagon rather than the RIZIN ring, which is better suited for strikers… Asakura steps into Pantoja’s world, a grappler of the highest order. Asakura is known for his one shot power but Pantoja’s got a chin on him and chains together his striking and grappling effectively. I think Pantoja ties Asakura up and sticks to him like glue for a submission win before the fight reaches the championship rounds. (Pick: Pantoja)

Zain: This is a hardcore fans-type fight. Alexandre Pantoja has established dominance ever since becoming champion and is showing no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, I think the bright lights will be too big for Kai Asakura given that it’s his UFC debut and the stakes that are attached to this fight. I like Pantoja to defend his title by decision in a conservative, yet technical performance. (Pick: Pantoja)

Picks: 4-0 Pantoja

MMAKO Staff Current Scores

(Since UFC 309)

Mat - 3
Drew - 4
Chris - 1
Zain - 3