Tom Aspinall Fights 2 Opponents at UFC 295

The odds are stacked against Tom Aspinall.

Tom Aspinall enters UFC 295 facing a dual challenge: to overcome a formidable opponent, and to conquer seemingly insurmountable odds which are stacked against him.

Aspinall will be the 19th fighter in the last decade to show up for a short-notice title fight when he enters the octagon to fight Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295.

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Despite the circumstances surrounding the fight, Aspinall is the only one really fighting on short-notice, as Pavlovich has had a full training camp as the original replacement opponent for Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic.

The odds are stacked against the British technician, as fighters entering a title shot on 20 days-notice or less (since 2013) have a 39% win rate, and 64% of them get finished:

Short-notice fighter	Opponent	Date	Short-notice win?
Tom Aspinall	Sergei Pavlovich	Nov 11, 2023	???
Alexander Volkanovski	Islam Makhachev	Oct 21, 2023	No
Jamahal Hill	Glover Teixeira	Jan 21, 2023	Yes
Alex Perez	Deiveson Figueiredo	Nov 21, 2020	No
Deiveson Figueiredo	Joseph Benavidez	Jul 18, 2020	Yes
Jorge Masvidal	Kamaru Usman	Jul 11, 2020	No
Justin Gaethje	Tony Ferguson	May 10, 2020	Yes
Al Iaquinta	Khabib Nurmagomedov	Apr 7, 2018	No
Yoel Romero	Luke Rockhold	Feb 10, 2018	Yes (Romero missed weight, no belt)
Jose Aldo	Max Holloway	Dec 2, 2017	No
Roxanne Modafferi	Nicco Montano	Dec 2 , 2017	No
Tonya Evinger	Cris Cyborg	Jul 29, 2017	No
Michael Bisping	Luke Rockhold	Jun 4, 2016	Yes
Ovince St. Preux	Jon Jones	Apr 23, 2016	No
Chad Mendes	Conor McGregor	Jul 11, 2015	No
Daniel Cormier	Anthony Johnson	May 23, 2015	Yes
Mark Hunt	Fabricio Werdum	Nov 15, 2014	No
Joe Soto	T.J. Dillashaw	Aug 30, 2014	No
T.J. Dillashaw	Renan Barao	May 24, 2014	Yes

Despite the numbers, Aspinall is the narrow favorite going into the fight. The savvy heavyweight stands on the brink of making history as the inaugural British heavyweight UFC champion (even as interim), following in the footsteps of Michael Bisping and Leon Edwards, the only other British UFC champions. 

Though, even if Aspinall pulls off an upset, he'll need to reaffirm his prowess in an official title match, unless the UFC promotes him in the event of Jon Jones' retirement.

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