Tom Aspinall Fights 2 Opponents at UFC 295
Tom Aspinall enters UFC 295 facing a dual challenge: to overcome a formidable opponent, and to conquer seemingly insurmountable odds which are stacked against him.
Aspinall will be the 19th fighter in the last decade to show up for a short-notice title fight when he enters the octagon to fight Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295.
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Despite the circumstances surrounding the fight, Aspinall is the only one really fighting on short-notice, as Pavlovich has had a full training camp as the original replacement opponent for Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic.
The odds are stacked against the British technician, as fighters entering a title shot on 20 days-notice or less (since 2013) have a 39% win rate, and 64% of them get finished:
| Short-notice fighter | Opponent | Date | Short-notice win? |
|---|---|---|---|
Tom Aspinall | Sergei Pavlovich | Nov 11, 2023 | ??? |
Alexander Volkanovski | Islam Makhachev | Oct 21, 2023 | No |
Jamahal Hill | Glover Teixeira | Jan 21, 2023 | Yes |
Alex Perez | Deiveson Figueiredo | Nov 21, 2020 | No |
Deiveson Figueiredo | Joseph Benavidez | Jul 18, 2020 | Yes |
Jorge Masvidal | Kamaru Usman | Jul 11, 2020 | No |
Justin Gaethje | Tony Ferguson | May 10, 2020 | Yes |
Al Iaquinta | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Apr 7, 2018 | No |
Yoel Romero | Luke Rockhold | Feb 10, 2018 | Yes (Romero missed weight, no belt) |
Jose Aldo | Max Holloway | Dec 2, 2017 | No |
Roxanne Modafferi | Nicco Montano | Dec 2 , 2017 | No |
Tonya Evinger | Cris Cyborg | Jul 29, 2017 | No |
Michael Bisping | Luke Rockhold | Jun 4, 2016 | Yes |
Ovince St. Preux | Jon Jones | Apr 23, 2016 | No |
Chad Mendes | Conor McGregor | Jul 11, 2015 | No |
Daniel Cormier | Anthony Johnson | May 23, 2015 | Yes |
Mark Hunt | Fabricio Werdum | Nov 15, 2014 | No |
Joe Soto | T.J. Dillashaw | Aug 30, 2014 | No |
T.J. Dillashaw | Renan Barao | May 24, 2014 | Yes |
Despite the numbers, Aspinall is the narrow favorite going into the fight. The savvy heavyweight stands on the brink of making history as the inaugural British heavyweight UFC champion (even as interim), following in the footsteps of Michael Bisping and Leon Edwards, the only other British UFC champions.
Though, even if Aspinall pulls off an upset, he'll need to reaffirm his prowess in an official title match, unless the UFC promotes him in the event of Jon Jones' retirement.
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