UFC 292 Betting Guide: Betting Suggestions & Predictions | Sterling vs. O'Malley

Everything you need to know about betting on UFC 292 (August 19 2023)

UFC 292 is almost upon us, and with it comes a stacked roster of fights. Most notably, the bantamweight strap is on the line and WMMA phenoms battle for the flyweight title.

The card comes prepared with plenty of razor-thin matchups with precarious odds, so let's dive right into it.

How did we do last time?

I placed $1.27 (£1) into every suggested bet from my UFC Vegas 78 betting guide last week on August 12, for a total of eight bets at roughly $10.20.

The end result was a net profit, totaling $17.83. 5/8 of my suggested bets paid out, with Martin Buday being a solid pick for the night. One caveat is that I cashed out on the big parlay before Dawodu was robbed defeated by Cub Swanson in the co-main.

So let's see if we can continue this trend into UFC 292.

Chris Weidman returns from his horrific leg-break in 2021 / © Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

UFC 292 Full Prelim Betting Odds & Suggestions

(Odds per BetOnline & fightodds, subject to change)

Karine Silva (-140) vs. Maryna Moroz (+120)

Skip this fight. Both women have slick submission skills and subpar striking. Moroz is the UFC veteran with the better strength of schedule, but WMMA is wildly unpredictable.

Andrea Lee (+250) vs. Natalia Silva (-300)

This is an unsafe fight. Still, Natalia Silva has demonstrated some of the best striking in women's flyweight, if Lee opts to fight on the feet then I don't see why she won't be picked and prodded for the full 15. Pick Silva.

Gerald Meerschaert (+190) vs. Andre Petroski (-225)

This is another miss. Both men are exceptional grapplers with a lot left to be desired on the feet. Petroski's victories either come by early sub or life-or-death decisions. Meerschaert's bread and butter is the grappling, and most of his recent victories have been come-from-behind submissions when his opponent gases. It's too unpredictable.

Brad Katona (-159) vs. Cody Gibson (+139)

Katona is the safer stylistic matchup in this fight. Gibson has great striking but leaves himself open to takedowns. Katona is more than happy to lay and pray for a decision, so take Katona in this one.

Kurt Holobaugh (+158) vs. Austin Hubbard (-183)

No doubt about it this is going to be a striking affair. Holobaugh is a very dangerous striker, but Hubbard's style supports that brawler style. Hubbard uses footwork and head movement to evade at close range and land power shots of his own, he's also savvy with knees and he's not afraid to take the fight to the ground. On the mat, Hubbard uses elbows very nicely. Due to the likelihood of a 'swang n bang' style fight, it's a coinflip, but I lean Hubbard.

Gregory Rodrigues (-361) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+286)

This is a match made for Rodrigues, who blends pressure striking with his exceptional grappling skills. Tiuliulin is notorious for his poor takedown defense and grappling IQ. Granted Rodrigues doesn't get chinned on a takedown entry (questionable jaw), he should be a safe pick.

Chris Weidman (+220) vs. Brad Tavares (-260)

Weidman was a ranked middleweight prior to his injury, where his last victory was a decisive win over the ever-game Omari Akhmedov. Weidman's game is pressure, wrestling, and sneakily good striking. What Tavares doesn't excel at is composure under pressure, and this has really showed in his last two performances against Dricus Du Plessis and Bruno Silva. Pick Weidman for the upset.

Prelim picks: Silva, Katona, Hubbard, Rodrigues, Weidman

Fan favorite Marlon Vera kicks off the UFC 292 main card / © Aaron Meullion-USA TODAY Sports

Marlon Vera (-183) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+158)

Vera struggles with unorthodox, agile strikers. Dominick Cruz worked him until the KO, and Sandhagen completely shut him down. It's a cliché by now that Vera is a slow starter, but it's true, he never leaves first-gear. On the opposite end, Munhoz likes to storm his opponent from the opening bell. It's a risky pick, but Munhoz may not let Vera settle into a rhythm for the full 15. Pick Munhoz.

Mario Bautista (-206) vs. Da'Mon Blackshear (+176)

Going with another underdog pick here in Blackshear. Blackshear's length and height advantage should benefit the striking exchanges, whilst his exceptional grappling should help mitigate the ground threat of Bautista, who has been preparing for an evasive striker in Garbrandt. Pick: Bautista

Neil Magny (+375) vs. Ian Garry (-500)

This fight isn't worth the risk. Whilst I lean Garry for his precise striking, his odds are too bloated. Magny is also notorious for derailing hot prospects, and his style is that of a wet blanket. If you're feeling it, take Magny on those absurd odds.

Weili Zhang (-310) vs. Amanda Lemos (+260)

Lemos was undeservedly granted this title shot. If Zhang can endure an early onslaught, she should be able to control Lemos for the dub. Pick Zhang.

Aljamain Sterling (-265) vs. Sean O'Malley (+225)

Don't pick anything on this fight. Sterling is renowned for his smothering grappling skills, and O'Malley has shown some underrated grappling skills. O'Malley is a superb striker, and Sterling has underrated striking. There are too many uncertainties to make a safe pick here, despite the fight heavily favoring Sterling on paper.

Main card picks: Munhoz, Blackshear, Zhang

UFC 292 Best Bets & Parlays - 8 Bets

• Safe single prelim --- Natalia Silva: $10 to win $3.33
• Safe single prelim --- Gregory Rodrigues: $10 to win $2.77
• Risky single prelim --- Chris Weidman: $10 to win $22
• Safe prelim parlay --- N.Silva, Rodrigues: $10 to win $7.02
• Safe single main --- Zhang: $10 to win $3.22
• Risky single main --- Munhoz: $10 to win $15.80
• Risky single main --- Blackshear: $10 to win $17.60
• Risky parlay main --- Munhoz, Zhang: $10 to win $24.12
• Super risky parlay --- Munhoz, Blackshear: $10 to win $61.20
• Mega risky UFC 292 --- Weidman, Munhoz, Blackshear: $10 to win $217.86

Please gamble responsibly.

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