UFC 301 Full Advanced Prelim Predictions & Breakdowns

Predictions & breakdowns of every prelim fight at UFC 301

UFC 301 is fast approaching, and many fans are unaware of a host of stacked prelims. MMA Knockout's Mat Riddle is here to give his opinion on the fights and offer his predictions.

Kevin Borjas vs. Alessandro Costa Prediction

This is an amazing start to the night if you're not already aware. Costa and Borjas are two of the best unranked flyweight prospects in the UFC. Costa has a 78% pick rate on Tapology, but I'd lean Borjas, just judging by his performance against Joshua Van in his UFC debut.

Costa is a dogged fighter. He's good everywhere the fight goes, especially up close and personal, where he can rough his opponents. In his UFC debut, he made a good short-notice showing against Amir Albazi and hurt Erceg badly in his last fight. However, his activity is slightly lacking, and his reaction to shots can be slow by flyweight standards.

Kevin Borjas ripping the body in his 2023 DWCS fight. /

This is where I think Borjas can pull away with his speed. Borjas' hand speed and bodywork can pay dividends as the fight goes on. He took round one from Joshua Van, and it was his cardio and body defense that cost him the fight; if he's made these adjustments then I can see him pulling the upset against Costa.

Pick: Borjas

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel Prediction

Pichel is returning from a two-year hiatus --- at 41 years of age --- to fight Bonfim, a 28-year-old -450 favorite. I don't like Pichel's chances here against the aggressive Bonfim. Pichel's wiry stance, lazy boxing and low hands could see him on the receiving end of Bonfim's onslaught.

Bonfim stunned in his UFC debut by knocking out Terrance McKinney with a flying knee. / Jason da Silva-USA TODAY Sports

I definitely see Bonfim storming out of the gate and catching Pichel early for a finish. If not, Bonfim might have worked on his cardio and plans to outwork Pichel over 15.

Pick: Bonfim

Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite Prediction

Both women are making their debuts after successful stints on DWCS. Barbosa has the better resume stemming from LFA, but she's much shorter, younger, and forfeits 4.5 inches in reach.

Watching tape on Barbosa, she has a nice jab, mixing it up to the body and head. She doesn't commit much to other strikes without smothering her punches or putting herself out of position. Barbosa's cardio holds up over 15 minutes and her takedowns are also quite effective.

Ernesta's grappling isn't as slick, but her striking is more savage. What I fear for Kareckaite is that she will storm onto a takedown and forfeit rounds on her back or against the cage. Barbosa isn't as effective a striker, but her ground game is smothering, and she could easily rack up control time. For this reason, I pick Barbosa, the underdog, for an upset.

Pick: Barbosa

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey Prediction

Mullarkey is effectively on a three-fight losing streak if you consider his dicey decision win over John Makdessi. The Aussie fighter has been finished three times now in his UFC career and he goes up against another puncher in Ruffy --- don't mistake it, Mullarkey is being fed to the wolves.

Ruffy hails from The Fighting Nerds, so his grappling should be on point, as well as his cardio. He struggles with activity, but more than makes up for it with his power and finishing instinct. One flaw, however, is his remarkably low rear hand, which could leave him wide open for Mullarkey's excellent left hook.

Mauricio Ruffy earned his UFC contract with an emphatic win on DWCS. / Louis Grasse/ UOL

I want to say that despite his technical flaws, Luffy should compensate against Mullarkey with his physicality, grit, and power. If Mullarkey doesn't get him out early, it could be another Naimov fight.

Pick: Ruffy

Joaquim Silva vs. Drakkar Klose Prediction

This might be the toughest fight on the prelims to lock down - pick'em isn't the word. Both fighters have heavy hands and are well-rounded on the feet and ground. Klose, in particular, uses a nice collar-tie to wing uppercuts at his opponents, and Silva's frame at lightweight is something to behold. Silva also fights well out of both stances and has a nice flying knee from southpaw.

Because of Silva's physicality, I feel that Klose will be playing matador in this fight. If Silva closes the distance or launches flying attacks, Klose can engage the ground fight and play position over submission to deny Silva any success with the grappling. Klose is the more reliable pick since his resume of fights is better, and he took the required time off after his defeat to Beneil Dariush and came back much improved.

Pick: Klose

Jean Silva vs. William Gomis Prediction

Gomis is excellent at fighting on the outside. He's a wiry featherweight of 5'10" who stands in the southpaw stance, kicking at range and stomping his opponent's knees when they try to crowd him. He's been caught and dropped by fighters who shift into range, and definitely lacks the pop on his punch to make fighters like Jean Silva respect his power.

Jean Silva barks at the camera after winning his UFC debut / UFC

Despite his antics, Silva is quite a measured fighter. He opts to wait for his opponent to commit to movements before swinging hard with counter punches. This works against fighters the caliber of Westin Wilson, but I'm not sure Gomis is stylistically a good matchup for the Brazilian. First of all, Silva is the shorter man by several inches, and forfeits several inches in reach to boot. He also stands low and wide, so he won't be able to shift the weight from his lead leg when Gomis stomps the knee.

Silva's patient style could cost him this fight, as Gomis is more than content to play on the outside with potshots and kicks. If or when Silva gets impatient and storms in, Gomis can either circle out or land an intercepting shot over Silva's low hands, I could be wrong, that is the nature of MMA, but I'm choosing Gomis in this matchup.

Pick: Gomis

Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai Prediction

It's kill or be killed between these two finishers. This is great matchmaking, too. I think Orolbai's wrestling and Brener's grit are the determining factors in this fight. Orolbai showed great ability to control, damage, and finish his opponent in his debut against Uros Medic, and I can see him imposing his inhuman strength against Brener.

Brener is a Chute Boxe student, meaning his offensive grappling is always a threat. His Chute Boxe patented aggressive striking style might not help in a fight against a position-heavy grappler like Orolbai, who will commit to a takedown as soon as Brener overextends. This, I believe, will be the narrative of the fight - Orolbai stifling the pressure of Brener and controlling him on the ground.

Pick: Orolbai

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction

Karolina Kowalkiewicz has clawed back a four-fight win streak since losing five in a row from 2019 to 2021 / Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports

Polish UFC veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz might not have much finishing ability, but on her recent four-fight streak, she's shown bulletproof determination and experience. Lucindo is a tough fight, she's aggressive and strong, but she's shown susceptibility to being taken down --- by lesser fighters than Kowalkiewicz.

I think it's a matter of surviving the onslaught for Kowalkiewicz, who should be able to use her veteran knowledge to shut down Lucindo and 'just win the fight', whether that's by holding against the cage or firing potshots on the feet.

Pick: Kowalkiewicz

Joanderson Brito vs. Jack Shore Prediction

The most intriguing fight for me on the prelims, and I think it all comes down to one thing: can Jack Shore fight the perfect fight for 15 minutes?

As Deontay Wilder once said, "They have to be perfect for 36 minutes, I only have to be perfect for two seconds." This is definitely the case with Joanderson Brito, who can spin one opening into a victory like he did against Jonathan Pearce in his last fight.

I believe the primary flaw with Shore is this: He's not a freak athlete by nature and most of his impressive victories were uphill battles. This is the case (in my opinion) with fighters like Brad Riddell, who can beat almost anybody but can't afford to make one mistake. I have it in full faith that Shore can make it happen against Brito, but the safe choice here is the Brazilian.

Pick: Brito

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