UFC 302 Bold Predictions: Can Dustin Poirier Pull off the Miracle in Newark?

Settle in because it's time for the MMA Knockout on Sports Illustrated main card predictions for UFC 302.

Mar 9, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Benoit Saint Denis (blue gloves) fights Dustin Poirier (red gloves) during UFC 299 at Kayesa Center. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The UFC is making its return to Newark, New Jersey for UFC 302 this Saturday, and MMA Knockout on Sports Illustrated has main card predictions ready to roll.

Fans inside the Prudential Center and those watching the ESPN+ PPV broadcast will get to see UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev go for his third successful title defense when he shares the Octagon with Dustin Poirier. There's also the co-main event between former middleweight king Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa.

There are three other main card bouts for fight fans to salivate over, and we've got something to whet your appetite with UFC 302 main card predictions.

UFC 302: ISLAM MAKHACHEV VS. DUSTIN POIRIER FULL PRELIM CARD PREDICTIONS

UFC 302 Main Card Predictions

Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Dustin Poirier - for the UFC Lightweight Championship

Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier meet face-to-face before their UFC 302 championship fight. / (via UFC broadcast)

Fernando Quiles Jr: I know everyone is expecting Makhachev's path to victory to be his grappling, but don't dismiss his striking. Makhachev has already proven to be a technically sound striker, and he can avoid danger even if he remains on the feet with "The Diamond." I believe Makhachev is too well-rounded and elite to lose this fight. (Pick: Makhachev)

Mathew Riddle: All respect to Dustin but I think Islam has it in the bag. Islam has way better striking than people give him credit for, I can even see him scoring a KO. That said, Poirier struggled a lot with Benoit Saint-Denis' back control and grappling - I believe Islam is better in this department and probably mauls 'The Diamond'. (Pick: Makhachev)

Drew Beaupré: The fact that a massive portion of the MMA community wants to see Poirier finally win an undisputed UFC belt on Saturday doesn’t make me feel any better about his chances here. I’d love to see him score the upset (especially if it was miraculously via guillotine) but Makhachev is too well-rounded to pick against and still seems to be adding new skills every time he steps into the cage. (Pick: Makhachev)

Zain Bando: There isn’t much more I can say. This is the big one—Dustin Poirier’s final chance at lightweight gold against the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world. Something has to give. As talented as Poirier’s résumé is, Islam Makhachev's youth and overwhelming wrestling base will be too much for the Louisiana native. Unless Poirier clips Islam early, the champion should be able to extend his win streak to 14. For the sake of the MMA community, I hope I’m wrong. (Pick: Makhachev)

Christopher De Santiago: (Pick: Makhachev)

Consensus: 5-0, Islam Makhachev

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa

Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa during their faceoffs at the UFC 302 pre-fight press conference. / (via UFC broadcast)

Fernando Quiles Jr: Costa can certainly put the pressure on Sean and make things uncomfortable with his power. I just think that Philly shell style defense will keep Strickland upright for five rounds. I see this one being a boxing clinic unless "Borrachinha" can clip his opponent with a hard strike. (Pick: Strickland)

Mathew Riddle: I wouldn't be shocked if Strickland jabs his way to a UD. However, I think Costa is the more gifted and athletic fighter, and he should be pushing the pace with his recent losses. (Pick: Costa)

Drew Beaupré: UFC 302 will mark the first time Costa has fought twice in a calendar year since 2017, and although he came up short against Robert Whittaker in February it didn’t seem like ring rust was much of an issue. Strickland should be able to keep the Brazilian on the end of his jab and outland him over the course of five rounds, but if Costa is able to apply consistent pressure I think he’s capable of pulling off an upset. (Pick: Costa)

Zain Bando: I don’t understand the point of this being a five-rounder. I guess that will let Sean Strickland do more damage, but similarly to the main event, if this fight stays standing, it’s interesting, but if not, it will be a long night for the Brazilian. (Pick: Strickland)

Christopher De Santiago: (Pick: Strickland)

Consensus: 3-2, Sean Strickland

Kevin Holland vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk

Mar 9, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Michael Page (blue gloves) fights Kevin Holland (red gloves) during UFC 299 at Kayesa Center. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Fernando Quiles Jr: I know Holland hasn't been looking too hot inside the Octagon as of late, but
Oleksiejczuk's resume simply isn't that impressive. It's hard to get behind him when his most recent wins are against the likes of Chidi Njokuani, Cody Brundage, and Sam Alvey. I'll take Holland getting back on track. (Pick: Holland)

Mathew Riddle: I have Oleksiejczuk for the upset. I don't think Holland has put on a good performance in a while and the mileage from his activity isn't helping either. I think Michal storms Holland from the outset, targeting Holland's body when he leans back and perhaps securing a TKO. (Pick: Oleksiejczuk)

Drew Beaupré: I’m extremely happy Holland took this matchup instead of waiting to fight Nick Diaz, although the pre-fight and possibly in-fight banter between those two probably would have been entertaining. “Trailblazer” can’t get too comfortable on the feet against Oleksiejczuk, but he’s definitely capable of trading strikes with the Polish fighter and holds a considerable edge if things go to the ground. (Pick: Holland)

Zain Bando: Arguably the most underrated fight on the main card, I like Kevin Holland to snap a skid that has seen him lose four of his last six and do so impressively. I don't buy Oleksiejczuk's youthfulness compared to a grizzled veteran like Holland, who is making his 22nd Octagon appearance. (Pick: Holland)

Christopher De Santiago: (Pick: Holland)

Consensus: 4-1, Kevin Holland

Niko Price vs. Alex Morono

Dec 3, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Niko Price (red gloves) fights Phil Rowe (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Amway Center. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Fernando Quiles Jr: I'm not so sure that Price has aged well inside the Octagon. His chin might be shot, and Morono may be able to capitalize on it. This could be an early night, but if Price finds a second wind then fans may be in for a barn burner. I think Morono takes it. (Pick: Morono)

Mathew Riddle: Morono was KO'd pretty viciously by Price back in 2017, but I think that version of Price is long gone. Morono has found his steam and I believe he beats anybody who isn't a fringe top-15 --- Price isn't that right now. (Pick: Morono)

Drew Beaupré: Fans know that Price’s fights are always entertaining, but the 34-year-old is on a difficult stretch where he’s only picked up one win out of his last six bouts. “The Hybrid” is always capable of landing a big shot, but Morono should be able to avoid that threat and outwork Price over the course of three rounds to earn a decision. (Pick: Morono)

Zain Bando: Although this fight moved to the prelims, it won't matter. Niko Price's chin is still susceptible to big shots, and Morono has won six out of his last eight. Please give me the hot hand and heavy favorite to complete the job within 10 minutes. (Pick: Morono)

Christopher De Santiago: (Pick: Morono)

Consensus: 5-0, Alex Morono

Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Randy Brown punches at Wellington Turman in a welterweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event Saturday, June 24, 2023 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. Randy Brown defeated Wellington Turman by unanimous decision. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA

Fernando Quiles Jr: I could see Brown keeping distance in this fight and frustrating Zaleski at times. If the Brazilian wants a slugfest, I don't think he gets it here. I'll take Brown via decision. (Pick: Brown)

Mathew Riddle: I really rate Dos Santos, but I believe his gung-ho style could cost him against Brown. Brown knows his range and he's got excellent shot selection, I don't anticipate him letting EZD turn the fight into a war. (Pick: Brown)

Drew Beaupré: This is one of the most well-matched fights on the card, but it’s also difficult to gauge where Zaleski is at given that he’s 37 years old and returned from a lengthy layoff last year. The Brazilian certainly proved he’s got plenty of fight left in him with those last two performances, but Brown has really hit his stride over the last few years and is riding the momentum of back-to-back victories. (Pick: Brown)

Zain Bando: This is a decent welterweight scrap to open the main card. Although Elizeu Zaleski
has been inconsistent with activity and cancelations, he has managed to put together a 10-3-1 UFC record, which is not easy considering how deep 170 pounds is. Zaleski even holds a win against Benoit Saint-Denis, which is saying something considering who his last fight was against. To me, he is better everywhere than Randy Brown and will showcase it Saturday night. (Pick: Zaleski)

Christopher De Santiago: (Pick: Brown)

Consensus: 4-1, Randy Brown

MMA Knockout Staff 2024 Records

• Fernando Quiles Jr: 17-8
• Mathew Riddle: 12-8
• Drew Beaupré: 17-8
• Zain Bando: 14-11
• Christopher De Santiago: 11-4

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