UFC Fight Night Betting Guide: Predictions & Suggestions - Dawson vs. Green
The UFC returns from a two-week hiatus to grace us with one of the more underrated cards of the year. Dawson vs. Green contains a host of fights which should deliver on every front. There are also plenty of live underdogs, which is great for big money opportunities.
First of all, how did we do last time?
Context: These betting guides began with $10. This is the fourth betting guide using that money.
Our last betting guide was for UFC 293. We made a net profit, turning $10.80 into $12.04. We got 8/11 predictions correct, and 4/9 bets cashed out. We made a mistake by chasing big money bets on the main card, and it didn't pay off:
UFC 293's bets
This week however, we'll play it safer, despite picking some underdogs to cash out. Let's get into it:
Karolina Kowalkiewicz looks to make it four wins in a row at UFC Fight Night 226
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
UFC Fight Night 229 Odds, Predictions & Bets - Prelims
(odds via BestFightOdds, subject to change)
Montana De La Rosa (-148) vs. J.J. Aldrich (+124)
Very surprising to see Rosa as the favorite considering she is 1-3-1 in her last five fights. Aldrich should be a better all round fighter, and should be able to nullify Rosa's smothering wrestling, and her standup seems good enough to grind out a decision.
Pick: Aldrich
Johnny Munoz Jr. (-115) vs. Aoriqileng (-105)
Aoriqileng is a good striker with solid takedown defense. Munoz is a good grappler with sloppy striking. If Munoz can't impose his will early, I see Aoriqileng putting him out on the feet.
Pick: Aoriqileng KO/TKO
Vanessa Demopoulos (+260) vs. Kanako Murata (-325)
Demopoulos is probably going to be on the backfoot what with Murata's wrestling skills. The fight will probably hit the mat at some point, and if Demopoulos doesn't pull off a submission, I see Murata controlling the fight.
Pick: Murata
Mateus Mendonca (-238) vs. Nate Maness (+195)
Maness is better than the oddsmakers give him credit for, his only UFC losses are to Umar Nurmagomedov and Tagir Ulanbekov, both relatively competitive fights. Mendonca is aggressive and dangerous, but he's not sharp and hasn't faced nor beaten opposition on the level of Maness. I pick Maness as the considerable underdog.
Pick: Maness, Bet: Maness outright
Diana Belbita (+124) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-148)
Belbita is a decent volume puncher but her takedown defense lets her down a lot. Kowalkiewicz is aging but has had a resurgence by defeating one-dimensional fighters like Belbita with a mix of striking, volume and grappling. I pick Kowalkiewicz as the favorite to win.
Pick: Kowalkiewicz
Ion Cutelaba (-135) vs. Philipe Lins (+114)
Cutelaba relies a lot on being able to control his opponent whether it's with plodding footwork or his wrestling. The underdog Lins appears to be the bigger, denser man in this matchup, and if he can deny Cutelaba's grappling early, I see a late-round finish.
Pick: Lins, Bet: Lins outright
- Predictions: Aldrich, Aoriqileng, Murata, Maness, Kowalkiewicz, Lins
- Bets: Maness, Lins
Full prelim parlay: $10 to win $595
Drew Dober looks to re-enter the win column at UFC Fight Night 229
UFC
UFC Fight Night 229 Odds, Predictions & Bets - Main Card
Bill Algeo (-102) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-118)
The odds are too close on this one to make a good bet. I do lean Hernandez for his grit and snappy striking. However, both men are too inconsistent for anything to be safe.
Pick: Hernandez
Drew Dober (-410) vs. Ricky Glenn (+320)
The UFC likes Dober, and on paper, Glenn is a gimme fight for him to win. Dober was in the lightweight rankings just one fight ago whilst Glenn has gone back-and-forth with fringe talent for years. Pick Dober here, it should be safe as long as the KO hasn't changed him.
Pick: Dober
Alex Morono (+150) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-167)
This fight is very hard to call. Whilst Morono is a wizened veteran, he's quite undersized and forfeits a lot of strength to his contemporaries. Buckley opts to pressure his opponents with his bobbing and weaving style and looping hooks.
Buckley isn't a one-trick pony, however, as he's quite durable and has underrated cardio. His explosiveness and imposing physique should pay dividends in this fight where Moreno's going to have to manage space and stifle his opponent.
If Moreno can't impose his grappling early, I see Buckley with the TKO or hard-fought decision.
Pick: Buckley
Joe Pyfer (-360) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+350)
Tough fight for Pyfer, who is on the fast-track to UFC stardom but first has to go through Alhassan, a fighter with 11 first-round knockouts. Pyfer's odds don't really justify a bet, but if anyone's going to score a first round KO it's Alhassan.
This will be the only 'just because' bet of the night, and I'm also going to pick Alhassan for the upset too.
Pick: Alhassan Bet: Alhassan KO
Grant Dawson (-420) vs. Bobby Green (+360)
These odds are wide, and for good reason. Dawson has shown great promise, demonstrating some of the best wrestling in the lightweight division, he's also undefeated in the UFC and Green is a step-down in competition (albeit a step-up in name value).
Green is crafty, his striking is much better than Dawson's and his submissions are good. His wrestling, however, shouldn't hold up against Dawson's. In my eyes, Green's only path to victory is knocking Dawson out on the feet or getting a shock submission.
Pick: Dawson by SUB or UD
- Predictions: Hernandez, Dober, Buckley, Alhassan, Dawson
- Bets: Dober, Pyfer, Alhassan by finish
- Main card parlay (Pyfer over Alhassan): $10 to win $48
- Main card parlay (Alhassan over Pyfer): $10 to win $194.70
UFC Fight Night 226: Official Bets & Parlays
- Safe prelim: Murata - $10 to win $3.07
- Prelim: Maness - $10 to win $19.5
- Risky prelim parlay: Maness, Lins - $10 to win $53.13
- Safe main: Dober - $10 to win $2.44
- Main: Buckley - $10 to win $6
- Risky main: Alhassan by finish - $10 to win $55
- Main card parlay: Dober, Buckley - $10 to win $9.90
- Underdogs parlay: Maness, Lins, Morono - $10 to win $147.82
- Big money full prelim parlay: $10 to win $595
- Main card favorites parlay: Dober, Buckley, Pyfer, Dawson - $10 to win $21,46
Please gamble responsibly
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