UFC Vegas 78: Betting Odds & Gambling Guide | Luque vs. Dos Anjos
The UFC returns to Vegas with an all-Brazilian headliner. UFC Vegas 78 features some incredibly underrated matchups and some juicy odds. So how does it look? Let's dive right in.
Terrance McKinney
UFC Vegas 78 Full Prelim Betting Odds & Previews
(Odds per BetOnline via fightodds)
Julianna Miller (+130) vs. Luana Santos (-150)
TUF alumni Miller was woefully outgrappled and outstruck throughout 15 minutes in her last fight. Santos is a former European Judo champion, she hits harder than Miller and always has that grappling expertise to fall back on. On paper Santos controls Miller for a victory.
Da'Mon Blackshear (-268) vs. Jose Johnson (+228)
Whilst Blackshear has looked impressive in all four of his UFC bouts, Johnson has a great equaliser in his crushing power. It's too risky. Skip it.
Montserrat Ruiz (+210) vs. Jaqueline Amorim (-250)
Amorim is an incredible threat on the ground, but she gassed hard in the first round of her UFC debut loss in April, so her cardio is very questionable. If you pick Amorim, choose her by RD1 submission (+115). Otherwise, Ruiz is a safe pick.
Martin Buday (-200) vs. Josh Parisian (+170)
Buday has a deceptively good gas tank, he's incredibly durable, with decent grappling and great power. Parisian is 2-3 in the UFC, and in his losses he has been easily controlled and subdued by lesser opposition than Buday. Pick Buday.
Francis Marshall (-180) vs. Isaac Dulgarian (+155)
We haven't seen the true ceiling of either fighter since Marshall has only lost one close decision, and Dulgarian is undefeated. If you feel risky, try Marshall by SUB (+290) or UD (+300), since Dulgarian has never left the first round.
Terrance McKinney (-255) vs. Mike Breeden (+215)
Skip this one. Whilst McKinney has shown he can decimate his opponents in the opening seconds, he also begins to faulter as the fight goes on.
Marcus McGhee (-365) vs. JP Buys (+280)
McGhee looked great in his UFC debut, bullying his smaller opponent to extend his 100% finish streak . Buys is also a smaller opponent and he's on a three-fight skid. This is a gimme fight for McGhee to move up the rankings. Pick McGhee.
Safe Prelim picks: Santos, Ruiz, Buday, McGhee
Risky prelim picks: Amorim SUB, Marshall SUB/UD
Vincente Luque
UFC Vegas 78 Full Main Card Betting Odds & Previews
(Odds per BetOnline via fightodds)
Josh Fremd (-350) vs. Jamie Pickett (+285)
Pickett is on the verge of being cut by the UFC, and for good reason. He is an aging fighter who scraped decision victories by hugging his opponent against the cage. Fremd not only has the ability to deny Pickett's oppression, he can threaten submissions and even work him on the feet. Pick Fremd.
Tafon Nchukwi (-141) vs. AJ Dobson (+121)
Skip this one. Both fighters have a history of showing no urgency, this could be a snoozer.
Iasmin Lucindo (-200) vs. Polyana Viana (+170)
Lucindo has some pretty nasty power in her hands, and she has good grappling to boot. The same goes for Viana, but her hands stay low and she can be easy to control on the ground. Lucindo should be able to bully Viana on the feet and shoot for the hips when her hands come up to block. Pick Lucindo.
Khalil Rountree (-170) vs. Chris Daukaus (+145)
Daukaus drops from heavyweight to light heavyweight, where he forfeits the agility advantage which gave him success in the heavier division. Whilst Rountree is inconsistent, Daukaus has set a precedent for his opponents, which is to absolutely batter him in the opening seconds because he can't withstand it. If one man can do this it's definitely Rountree. Pick Rountree.
Hakeem Dawodu (-210) vs. Cub Swanson (+180)
Swanson suffered greatly against Jonathan Martinez in his last fight, where he was worked with leg and body kicks leading to a leg kick TKO. Dawodu, being a Muay Thai striker, should be able to do more of the same. Pick Dawodu.
Vincente Luque (-105) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (-115)
I'd like to roll with Luque on this one, but I can't recommend any bet on this fight. Luque suffered brain bleed in his last fight (KO finish), and before that he demonstrated he could be controlled with pressure-wrestling against Belal Muhammad. It can't be guaranteed that the same Luque walks into the octagon this weekend.
RDA isn't safe either, he has struggled to control his opponents as a small welterweight, he's aging and has shown he can be cracked by big shots. With all these factors considered... skip this fight.
Safe main card picks: Fremd, Rountree
Risky main card picks: Lucindo, Dawodu
UFC Vegas 78 Best Bets & Parlays
- Safe Prelim Parlay --- Santos and Buday: $10 to win $15
- Risky Prelim Parlay --- Santos, Ruiz, Buday: $10 to win $67.50
- Single Bet Prelims --- Buday: $10 to win $5
- Safe Main Card Parlay --- Fremd and Rountree: $10 to win $10.42
- Risky Main Card Single --- Viana: $10 to win $17
- Single Bet Main Card --- Fremd: $10 to win $2.86
- Big Parlay --- Santos, Buday, Fremd, Dawodu: $10 to win $37.47
- Risky Big Money Parlay --- Ruiz, Buday, Viana: $10 to win $115.55
Please gamble responsibly.
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