Why Tom Aspinall Will Beat UFC Legend Jon Jones

The heavyweight titan poised to defeat the UFC's greatest fighter. [OPINION]

Mathew Riddle | Aug 23, 2024

Historical revisionism in MMA is rampant, especially concerning the legends of the sport.

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A single poor performance can make fans and pundits question an athlete's place among the all-time greats, overlooking their prime. Statistics are twisted, narratives are rewritten, and new stories quickly take shape.

If any athlete transcends this kind of judgment—extracurricular activities aside—it’s Jon Jones.

Widely regarded as the greatest fighter of all time, 'Bones' plans to retire on top this year or next, with a rumored matchup against fellow UFC legend Stipe Miocic. However, a new challenge has emerged in the heavyweight division: a British fighter with all the tools and hype to spoil Jones’ fairytale retirement.

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Tom Aspinall Will Beat Jon Jones if They Fight

Tom Aspinall is the man poised to beat Jon Jones, rising to fame with cruelly ironic timing just as Jones aims to cap his career with a legacy fight.

Bigger, younger, stronger, faster, better. It sounds cliché, but Aspinall is all these things and more when stacked against Jones. His resume is nothing to sniff at either, trumping tough stylistic matchups in Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes, both fighters many considered stiff tests for heavyweight Jones.

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The Reyes Factor

First, let's circle back to Jones vs. Dominick Reyes, which many, including myself, scored for Reyes. Jones struggled with volume and aggression out of the gate in this fight. Reyes didn't respect Jones' range or his striking, opting to storm him with boxing combinations, smashing his parrying arm away and launching rib-crushing kicks. If Reyes could have kept that pace for one more round, that's an official loss on Jones' record.

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This is relevant because Aspinall is bigger and stronger than Reyes, a more accomplished finisher, and arguably a better boxer. At 2:02, Aspinall has the shortest average fight time in UFC history. If Jones can struggle this much against a light heavyweight fighter like Reyes, it's not hard to imagine Aspinall steamrolling him in the opening frame.

The reality of this fantasy matchup is that Aspinall could make it completely anticlimactic, a one-round demolition job with no payoff. But that makes the fight so alluring: does Jones overcome one final hurdle? Or does Aspinall make MMA history?

The Age Factor

It's no secret that Jones, who debuted in the UFC at 21, was much younger than his opponents on his rise to fame. Jones has only fought three fighters in his career who were truly younger than him: Anthony Smith (-1 years), Dominick Reyes (-2 years), and Ciryl Gane (-3 years). If Jones and Aspinall fought in 2024, Aspinall would be six years younger.

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In the later stages of his career, Jones was known less for his reactivity and dynamism and more for his durability and ability to do just enough to win. 'Just enough' gets harder to apply when your opponent is younger, fitter, and reacts faster. Aspinall's fast-twitch style demands attention, and it is known in combat sports that a fighter's reaction times diminish with age.

The Physical Factor

I mentioned it before, but Aspinall would be the biggest opponent Jones has ever faced. In this sport, some fighters bypass and override technique with their overwhelming presence. Examples include early-career Francis Ngannou and Brock Lesnar, who were exceptionally strong, fast, and athletically gifted. Aspinall fits this description perfectly.

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The difference is that Ngannou and Lesnar relied on sheer athleticism rather than technical skill. In contrast, Aspinall is technically well-rounded and exceptionally athletic, which allows him to overcome skill disparities. While Jones' range control and fight IQ are highly praised, their effectiveness may be limited when facing a 6'5" boxer-grappler who can impose his dominance in the cage.

Aside from Alex Pereira vs. Jones, a bout between Aspinall and Jones for the heavyweight strap would be the biggest fight the UFC could make this decade. The result matters less to me than the fact that it happens, although it's unlikely. Still, Aspinall is doing a great job of calling out Jones and building interest in the matchup, so there's always potential.

Tom Aspinall Will Beat Jon Jones if They Fight

The Reyes Factor

The Age Factor

The Physical Factor

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