Can BYU Afford to Bet Big on AJ Dybantsa’s Enormus NIL Demand?

AJ Dybantsa’s $4M NIL expectations test college programs’ budgets, raising questions on whether a single recruit is worth risking depth, especially for programs like BYU.

Prolific Prep's AJ Dybantsa, left, with teammate Zoom Diallo share a laugh before a game versus Orangeville Prep on Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024. / Marc Vasconcellos/The Enterprise / USA TODAY NETWORK

The recruitment of AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 overall high school basketball prospect in the 2025 class, has truly spotlighted how much the NIL era is reshaping the landscape of college sports. Dybantsa, a 6’9” forward with impressive versatility and scoring ability, has been attracting attention from major programs nationwide. The stakes to land him are extraordinarily high, with his NIL package expected to soar between $4 million and $4.5 million, according to On3’s Peter Nakos, and up to 10 million per Jeff Goodman. With the BYU Cougars reportedly leading the chase thanks to deep-pocketed support from Utah Jazz owner Ryan Smith and executive Danny Ainge, the question isn’t only where Dybantsa will go but whether his massive NIL price tag is worth it for a single recruit.

As enticing as it sounds to land a generational talent like Dybantsa, there’s a catch. High NIL valuations create a dynamic that’s forcing traditional basketball powerhouses to think twice. Traditional Powerhouses like the Kansas Jayhawks, which initially pursued Dybantsa, appear to be opting out of this bidding war, instead focusing on other top players with a lower NIL price tag. This isn’t about Kansas being cheap; it’s about long-term strategy. With the average NIL compensation for top-tier players in the transfer portal estimated at around $750,000, allocating $4 million to one high school recruit could have major repercussions on a program’s ability to build a complete,
competitive roster.

How much will student-athletes really make from this year’s basketball transfer portal?@AthleteNIL has aggregated data across its collective portfolio, as well other sources, to provide a comprehensive look at NIL compensation for DI men’s basketball transfers next season. pic.twitter.com/RS62U4XDKA

— Jason Belzer (@JasonBelzer) June 24, 2024

The chart on NIL compensation for the 2024-2025 transfer portal shows how heavy the financial burden can be at every level. The top 50 players command $750,000, while even those ranked 151-200 expect close to $250,000. This puts programs like BYU in a tough spot: they may secure Dybantsa with a hefty NIL package, but what happens to the rest of the roster? Where depth matters as much as star power, there’s a risk that chasing a top-tier recruit with a high price tag could leave a program thin across other positions.

Another angle worth considering is the value of experienced talent from the transfer portal, which often comes at a lower price and can offer immediate impact with far less risk. For example, Coleman Hawkins, a four-year forward from Illinois, made headlines this past offseason when he withdrew from the NBA Draft and entered the transfer portal. Hawkins landed a deal reportedly worth $2 million to play at Kansas State, making him one of the highest-paid players in college basketball. Unlike high school recruits like Dybantsa, who is unproven at the collegiate level, players like Hawkins have spent years developing in college, already know how to play within structured systems and understand the rigors of college basketball.

These seasoned veterans offer more predictability and reliability, valuable assets for programs looking to run deep in March. Paying for a known entity, like Hawkins, who has played in high-level competition and has established himself as a top player, should be a safer bet than banking on a one-and-done freshman like Dybantsa.

Alabama, also once seen as a frontrunner for Dybantsa, has similarly pulled back as the NIL demands escalated. Instead, the Tide doubled down on sustainable roster-building, opting to pursue high-level recruits who align more reasonably with their financial strategies. This approach reflects a belief that a well-rounded team with talent across the board stands a better chance in March than a roster centered around one or two high-priced players. For Kansas, for example, the shift in focus to Darryn Peterson, the nation’s No. 3 recruit, is a strategic move to ensure that NIL dollars are distributed in a way that maximizes team depth, while still grabbing a top talent.

While enticing, paying exorbitantly for a star player like Dybantsa could ultimately hinder effective roster-building for programs in the long run. By investing such a massive sum in a single recruit, programs risk compromising their ability to attract and support other talented players who may not command such high NIL figures but are equally vital to a balanced roster. Basketball, especially at the college level, is a team game that often rewards depth over individual stardom. Players outside the starting five, role players, defensive specialists, and reliable bench contributors are the difference-makers in critical games, and securing these players requires resources.

For programs like BYU, where NIL resources aren’t as deep across the board as traditional powerhouses, this “all-in” approach on one player could prove to be a double-edged sword. With so much of the NIL budget allocated to Dybantsa, BYU may struggle to provide similar incentives to other prospective recruits or to retain their current players amid a competitive transfer portal landscape. Essentially, by overextending for one recruit, they could face a situation where the surrounding talent doesn’t match up to compete at the highest level, leaving a star like Dybantsa without the support needed to win big games.

In the broader landscape, overpaying for top talent could set a risky precedent in college recruiting, with more programs feeling pressured to overspend on individual players to stay competitive. While this strategy might yield short-term gains or a hype season, it could jeopardize long-term program health and consistency, as other roster areas may remain underdeveloped. For college basketball programs aiming to achieve sustained success, the challenge lies in balancing the allure of a marquee recruit with the practical demands of building a cohesive, multi-dimensional team that can compete at every level.