Coleman Hawkins’ Historic NIL Deal Could Deplete the Second Round of the NBA Draft

After withdrawing from the NBA Draft the fifth-year forward from Illinois will make $2,000,000 in NIL compensation after being lured to Kansas State in the transfer portal

Mar 20, 2024; Omaha, NE, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Coleman Hawkins (33) talks with the media during the NCAA first round practice session at CHI Health Center Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports / Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

Coleman Hawkins has dominated headlines in June. When the four-year University of Illinois forward withdrew from the upcoming 2024 NBA Draft in late May, he instantaneously became the top player in the transfer portal and the belle of the ball to collegiate coaches nationwide. Roughly two weeks after withdrawing from the NBA Draft, Hawkins declared that he is off to Manhattan, Kansas, receiving a historic NIL “pay-for-play” contract in the ballpark of $2,000,000 to join the Kansas State Wildcats roster. 

Hawkins had an impressive campaign in his fourth year at Illinois, averaging 12.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and impactful defensive play. The senior has been an integral part of Brad Underwood’s successful tenure as the Illini’s head coach and a crucial piece of this year’s team that put Illinois into the elite eight for the first time in nearly two decades –– the Illini ultimately fell to the buzz saw that is the two-time repeating NCAA March Madness Champion UConn Huskies.  

Kansas State has not been shy about handing out money to basketball stars. This offseason alone, the team has picked up several highly touted players in the portal, including Ugonna Onyenso from Kentucky and Achor Achor from Samford. "The Manhattan Project", as I like to call it, will be an important case study on the performance returns of NIL spending. Success for the Wildcats in the 2024-25 season could greatly change the NIL market price for elite athletes and the composition of future NBA Drafts.

It has been widely reported that Hawkins has become the highest-paid collegiate basketball player with his new NIL contract. However, it's important to note that this claim may not be entirely accurate. Another transfer portal forward who similarly has a year of remaining eligibility, Great Osobor, left Utah State earlier this summer to take advantage of a similarly priced NIL deal. This deal, reported to be worth $2,000,000 at the University of Washington, could potentially rival Hawkins' contract. Ultimately, any nominal difference in compensation between the two portal stars is irrelevant; what is worth noting is how much “win-now” programs are prepared to invest in seasoned collegiate talent, even if it’s just for one season. 

Hawkins embodies the new era of collegiate sports; as a projected second-round pick in the NBA Draft, Hawkins will earn significantly more through NIL at Kansas State than he would have been able to solicit from being a second-round pick in the NBA. Outside of the first round, NBA teams do not guarantee rookie contracts; players must earn their roster spot ––  and payment –– throughout the offseason. The minimum salary for an NBA rookie is roughly $1,100,000, and for the now popular two-way contract between the NBA and G League, salaries will be around the $560,000 mark (half of the rookie minimum). 

Hawkins made a business decision; the NBA will continue to be there for him. While not guaranteed, another year of competition in a premier conference like the Big 12 (the soon-to-be Allstate 12) will bring him to the 2025 NBA draft a more seasoned and developed player, helping his draft stock. 

The implications of the hot transfer portal market don’t end at the collegiate level; in the long run, this trend could change the composition of the NBA. College ball, not the NBA, is the more financially attractive offer for any player similarly situated to Hawkins. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush for prospects not considered to be sure-fire first-round picks. Hawkins will make nearly double the rookie minimum next year off his NIL “pay-for-play” contract alone and almost four times as much as a two-way contract. 

First-round picks can sign for between 80% and 120% of a scaled rookie salary defined by the NBA's CBA. For 2024 lottery picks, the rookie scale ranges between $5,713,700 for the seventh overall pick and $10,504,800 for the first overall pick. The last pick of the first-round scaled salary is roughly $2,084,700. For the most elite prospects, the rookie-scaled contracts are more than we have seen any NIL program be willing to offer thus far. 

It is conceivable that incredibly wealthy boosters would be willing to pool resources to offer NIL payments close to rookie-scaled contracts to players of the most elite caliber, like recent first-overall picks Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, and Zion Williamson. Not to disrespect the talented game of Hawkins in any way, but if second-round talent can command $2,000,000 in transfer portal free agency, imagine the sum of money a player like Anthony Edwards or Anthony Davis would have been able to sign for in today’s transfer portal.  

It is important to remember that athletes have a finite career length. For a player to get the most financially out of their career, the faster they can transition from a scaled NBA contract and move towards a veteran contract or potentially a max or super-max contract (currently ~ $55,000,000) the better. It is unlikely that NIL, even to an extreme degree, would persuade bonafide first-round talent to stay in school at the expense of reaching a veteran contract later. 

So, what will the new precedent of transfer portal compensation set by Hawkins and Osobor translate to? For starters, it will make the second round of the NBA draft composed primarily of older players. For those with remaining eligibility and second-round or borderline first-round talent, the value they hold in the transfer portal is immense. Players in this position are virtually guaranteed to be high-impact players on any collegiate team; the security of a multi-million dollar NIL payout is a much more appealing offer than the potential of a two-way contract. 

This will dilute the talent pool of the NBA. Players who would have been selected in the second round are incentivized to stay back to cash in on NIL money, granting more opportunities for older players who have exhausted their full eligibility to get their chance to make an NBA roster. It will become increasingly common for collegiate players eligible for the NBA with adequate talent to make a roster to opt out of the draft process.

Intuitively, the NCAA will benefit from a stronger talent pool. With money to attract low-end NBA talent for an extra year or two, the NCAA will maintain an older and more skilled league. While a reduction in roster availability for incoming collegiate players due to players staying in college longer is a valid thesis, with over 350 Division I schools, the effects will be nominal. The more immediate concern is that NBA-level talent will likely concentrate on teams with the highest NIL payroll, further reducing parity in the NIL era. 

The success of Kansas State's "Manhattan Project" will shape the future transfer portal payment market. If a team born from ambitious portal spending can succeed in the Big 12 and put together a solid tournament run, we will see NIL compensation norms be pushed again in the summer of 2025, incentivizing even more players to stay in school for at least another season. Next year, all eyes will be on the Wildcats.