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College Football Free Agency: Transfer Portal Trends and NIL Impact

In only three days of the Fall Transfer Portal window being open staggering data from The Portal Report shows that, 5.9% of all DI college football players intend to transfer for the upcoming 2025 CFB season

Noah Henderson

Jul 23, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza answers questions from the media during the ACC Kickoff at Hilton Charlotte Uptown. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
Jul 23, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza answers questions from the media during the ACC Kickoff at Hilton Charlotte Uptown. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Free agency has reached collegiate football. Only three days into the opening of the Fall Transfer Portal Window, 5.9% of Division-I football players have declared that they will be looking for new programs to play for in the upcoming 2025 season –– quarterbacks are entering at nearly double the average rate, as 10.8% of signal callers have already indicated their choice to leave their current teams.  

From 2021 to 2023, all student-athletes were granted one-penalty-free transfer, a departure from the previous NCAA policy that, outside of unique circumstances, would suspend players who switched schools. This change in guidance started the transfer portal hysteria that has permeated college football today. 

Coinciding with the changes to athlete compensation rules and NIL ‘pay-for-play’ contracts in 2021, many students used the portal to test the market and see how much other institutions would be willing to spend on their athletic talents. The 2021 to 2023 version of the transfer portal was collegiate free agency lite. 

Roughly a year ago, a federal judge stripped the NCAA of its ability to enforce transfer restrictions. Starting with last year's portal cycle, every athlete, regardless of previous transfers, became eligible to find a new home for the ensuing season. What was created is a system where, after every season, all players can become what is known in the professional ranks as an unrestricted free agent.

Players looking for more money at more prominent programs, greater on-field opportunities after losing battles for playing time, or simply a new culture fit have been afforded the autonomy to make those decisions for themselves. Early indications from the Fall Transfer Portal Window have shown that many players believe the grass is indeed greener on the other side. 

Thanks to the incredible work of The Portal Report, fans (and members of coaching staffs) can access aggregated data to see just how vast this pool of transfer athletes is, along with rankings, school offers, and more. As of December 12 at 9:40 EST, 1692 DI college football players had formally entered or informally declared on social media that they will be entering the transfer portal. 

A sneak peek into The Portal Report’s complete data shows interesting early trends worth watching. By position, quarterbacks are the most likely to hit the portal, with 10.8% intending to transfer this offseason. While quarterbacks have a clear separation in transfer propensity compared to other positions, they are tailed closest by wide receivers, at 8.1%, and defensive backs, at 7.2%. 

These figures are significant and indicate that athletes who play positions that stand to gain the most financially from the transfer portal are also the most likely to use it. Is this finding intuitive? Sure, but having the data points to back it up is essential. 

According to aggregated NIL collective payment data from Jason Belzer, Founder of Student Athlete NIL, those positions that most often opt for the portal tend to command the highest payment for their athletic services. While not a direct one-to-one correlation this early in the process, as the players continue to opt for the portal, it will be interesting to see if the rate at which athletes enter fully aligns with position spending. 

One notable outlier in this data set is tight ends, who, despite being the eighth highest-paid position group per player, is the third most likely to hit the transfer portal. This is likely due to significant divergence in how the position is used at the collegiate level in wide-ranging offensive schemes. More than other positions, tight ends could be inclined to transfer into a system more conducive to their strengths, whether blocking or receiving. 

With college general manager roles emerging across the football landscape, the valuation and recruitment of talent through the transfer portal will only become more strategic. Nearly 1,700 players have entered the portal, presenting opportunities and challenges for programs as they work to identify impactful players and assign value to their potential contributions.

Just days into this year’s transfer cycle, it’s clear that how schools approach their portal strategy will define their success in the 2025 season. While marquee quarterback transfers will continue to grab headlines, effectively building out the rest of the roster will be just as critical to long-term success.

For the first time in the sport’s history, programs have the chance to transform their fortunes almost overnight. With 5.9% of players already exploring new opportunities, the offseason has become pivotal for teams aiming to make substantial gains before kickoff next fall.

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Noah Henderson
NOAH HENDERSON

Professor Noah Henderson teaches in the sport management department at Loyola University Chicago. Outside the classroom, he advises companies, schools, and collectives on Name, Image, and Likeness best practices. His academic research focuses on the intersection of law, economics, and social consequences regarding college athletics, NIL, and sports gambling. Before teaching, Prof. Henderson was part of a team that amended Illinois NIL legislation and managed NIL collectives at the nation’s most prominent athletic institutions while working for industry leader Student Athlete NIL. He holds a Juris Doctor from the University of Illinois College of Law in Urbana-Champaign and a Bachelor of Economics from Saint Joseph’s University, where he was a four-year letter winner on the golf team. Prof. Henderson is a native of San Diego, California, and a former golf CIF state champion with Torrey Pines High School. Outside of athletics, he enjoys playing guitar, hanging out with dogs, and eating California burritos. You can follow him on Twitter: @NoahImgLikeness. 

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