Six Schools That Could Round Out the New Pac-12 Conference

With the Pac-12 beginning to poach Mountain West teams to rebuild the conference other schools will soon enter talks to develop the new look conference

Dec 26, 2023; Dallas, TX, USA; Texas State Bobcats running back Ismail Mahdi (21) and offensive lineman Brey Walker (70) celebrate after the game against the Rice Owls at Gerald J Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Breaking news has surfaced that the Pac-12 will likely poach four new member institutions —San Diego State, Boise State, Fresno State, and Colorado State — from the Mountain West.

Thanks to widespread conference realignment, the Pac-12 looks much more like the Pac-2 as its only member institutions are Oregon State and Washington State; next year, they look to turn into the Pac-6 with their new additions from the Mountain West. 

According to NCAA rules, the Pac-12 has a two-year grace period ending in July of 2026 to meet the threshold of eight teams to be a viable conference. I wanted to take my best shot at guessing who else would be targeted to round out the Pac-12. I have selected six schools that would seamlessly transition into the historic conference based on geography, media markets, athletic success, fan bases, and, on occasion, vibes. 

My methodology is admittedly hasty but can do the trick in a pinch.

Cash is king in college athletics, and the most crucial asset a school can provide a conference is an engaged fan base and a large television market to use in media rights negotiations with television and streaming providers. 

I have used the 2023-24 Nielsen rankings for TV markets as proxies for media rights value. Undergraduate enrollment is used as a proxy for fan base engagement –– fans don’t have to attend or have a degree from your school, but students and alumni often make up the bulk of fandom.

CBS Sports Football and Ken Pom Basketball rankings have been used to indicate current athletic strength. 

1. Texas State University (Sun Belt)

CBS Sports Football Rank: 46
Ken Pom Rank: 180
31,704 Undergrad enrollment 
San Antonio 31st Biggest TV Market / Austin 35th Biggest TV Market 

Texas State is pretty darn good at football. The Bobcats are in a position to be one of the teams vying for the one non-Power-4 auto bid for the expanding College Football Playoff. No school, no matter how talented, is excited to face G.J. Kinne’s up-tempo offense. 

Texas State is located in San Marcos, TX. For those undereducated in Texas geography, San Marcos is smack dab in the middle of two sizable TV markets, San Antonio and Austin. With the football powerhouse and state flagship University of Texas in Austin, little penetration into America’s 35th biggest TV market can be expected. 

Tapping into the larger San Antonio market is likely more accessible and achievable. Competition also exists within San Antonio as a UTSA team that has been good in recent years maintains footing within the region. Football is a religion in Texas; whether it’s in Austin or San Antonio, those with ties to the Bobcats will be tuning in. Two is often better than one. 

Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

2. University of Nevada Las Vegas (Mountain West)

CBS Sports Football Rank: 40
Ken Pom Basketball Rank: 73
25,365 Undergrad enrollment 
Las Vegas 40th Biggest TV Market

UNLV is by far the most well-rounded athletic department on this list. It is a March Madness hopeful and has a football team that, with a couple of key additions, could ultimately challenge for a Pac-12 title if added to the conference. 

The Runnin’ Rebels’ geographic profile is enticing.

Las Vegas is experiencing population growth and could quickly continue to rise as an important media market. The sporting economy in Vegas continues to grow with the integration of many new professional sports franchises. Establishing a foothold with the lone FBS institution in the region would be a tremendous strategic advantage for the conference. 

Beyond Vegas’s media value, the city's vast infrastructure makes it a premier destination for media days, championships, and any other need the Pac-12 may be able to utilize it for. The City of Sin is prime real estate in the world of sports. 

Candice Ward-Imagn Images

3. University of Hawaii (Mountain West) 

CBS Sports Football Rank: 114
Ken Pom Basketball Rank: 167
14,198 Undergrad enrollment 
Honolulu 68th Biggest TV Market 

Compared to other teams on this list, Hawaii’s Honolulu TV market and undergraduate enrollment are small; however, they are the only Division I university in the state and do not have to split the TV market or non-alumni fans with other local teams, although their on-field performance as of late leaves a lot to be desired. 

Hawaii offers something of value to the Pac-12: late-night, stand-alone games. As the only FBS team in the Hawaii Standard Time Zone, Hawaii’s home games can kick off after most of the country’s Saturday slate has finished, giving the Pac-12 exclusive access to the late window. 

“Pac-12 After Dark” has become part of the conference’s legacy, adding Hawaii will further cement that fans up late in the night on the East Coast and everywhere else in the country will tune in to Pac-12 football. With the continued proliferation of legal sports gambling across the country, providing a meaningful stand-alone game is wildly influential in capturing the attention of sports betters and enhancing conference visibility. 

Marco Garcia-Imagn Images

4. University of North Texas (Conference USA)

CBS Sports Football Rank: 89
Ken Pom Basketball Rank: 74
33,024 Undergrad Enrollment 
Dallas-Fort Worth 12th Biggest TV Market

I was deeply torn between the University of North Texas and the University of Texas San Antonio. I went with Mean Green because, at this point, moving from the AAC to an upstart Pac-12 may be seen as a lateral move for the Roadrunners. Also, if Texas State is to join, doubling up on the San Antonio market may not yield as valuable as chasing the Dallas market through UNT. 

The Dallas-Fort Worth area is home to Power conference SMU and TCU, however, with such a large market there is a piece of the pie for everyone at the table, especially when the Pac-12 shield is added to a game. A large fan base, a giant TV market, accessible travel routes for member schools, and strong enough athletic prowess should make the acquisition of UNT a no-brainer for the Pac-12. 

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

5. University of New Mexico (Mountain West)

CBS Sports Football Rank: 127
Ken Pom Basketball Rank: 29
15,914 Undergrad Enrollment
Albuquerque-Santa Fe 49th Biggest TV Market

Don’t overthink it. New Mexico has an excellent basketball program with a good fan base in a solid TV market. Are they the cream of the crop? No. Will they raise the tides of the new Pac-12? Most definitely. 

New Mexico State and the border rival University of Texas El Paso were considered. However, a much smaller El Paso-Las Cruces TV market and worse athletic programs make it a non-competition. 

Also, New Mexico has Richard Pitino. That is fun. 

Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK

6. San Jose State University (Mountain West)

CBS Sports Football Rank: 100
Ken Pom Basketball Rank: 248
26,863 Undergrad Enrollment 
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose 10th Biggest TV Market

The Spartans should be invited to the Pac-12 for more reasons than keeping the El Camino Real Rivalry between SDSU and SJSU alive. Their athletic record is spotty, but a jump to the Pac-12 will allow them to improve quickly. 

The real value of SJSU is the gigantic TV market of the Bay Area.

California and Stanford do exist within close proximity, however, it is strategically very important for the conference to maintain its longstanding foothold in an area that, for a long time, could have been considered the epicenter of the Pac-12. Letting the goodwill of the conference go to waste by fully abandoning the Bay Area would be foolish. 

Steven Erler-Imagn Images