IndyCar championship: Will it come down to the last turn of the last lap?

Five drivers still have a chance to win the crown: Team Penske's Will Power, Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin, and Chip Ganassi Racing's Scott Dixon and Marcus Ericsson

After a thrilling sixteen races, the NTT IndyCar Series heads to California’s Weather Tech Raceway Laguna Seca for the 17th and final race of the 2022 season.

Five drivers enter Sunday's Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey mathematically eligible to win it all. Will Power, Josef Newgarden, and Scott Dixon - the top three drivers entering this weekend’s race - all have experienced winning a title before. Marcus Ericsson and Scott McLaughlin are both seeking their first title.

The battle for the championship will likely come down to the wire, potentially the last turn of the last lap. This year marks the 17th consecutive season that the IndyCar title will be decided in the final race of the season.

Here’s a look at the five drivers who will fight it out for the championship:

Will Power. Photo: IndyCar / Chris Owens

WILL POWER - Current Point Leader

Best Championship Position: 1st (2014)

2022 Wins: 1 (Detroit)

Best Laguna Seca Finish: 2nd (2019)

Power needs to finish third or better to win his second championship regardless of what happens in the race. The Aussie driver won his lone title in 2014 and would love to win another for his crew.

“I just want to win this championship for the guys who have been with me for more than a decade like my engineer Dave (Faustino) and my data acquisition guy Robbie (Atkinson) and the group,” Power said after finishing second at Portland last Sunday. “It’s a lot less selfish for me this time around because they deserve it. I feel their pain over the years of losing so many. I’d love to win it for them.”

Perhaps no driver is more deserving of another title as Power. He’s come so close to winning so many times, having finished second in the standings four times and third overall twice. Power finished ninth overall last year, his worst showing in the standings since he ran a partial season in 2009.

Josef Newgarden. Photo: IndyCar / Chris Owens

JOSEF NEWGARDEN - 20 Points Back

Best Championship Position: 1st (2017, 2019)

2022 Wins: 5 (Texas, Long Beach, Road America, Iowa 1, Gateway)

Best Laguna Seca Finish: 7th (2021)

With a series-leading five wins this year, Newgarden has dominated the IndyCar circuit. He also has found success at IndyCar’s season finale in California, winning the 2017 championship at Sonoma Raceway and the 2019 title at Laguna Seca.

“I wouldn't rule anything out,” Newgarden said of the championship last weekend at Portland.”I think we all have to be on our game. At the end of the day we feel really good about being together and having fast cars. I think the team has done an amazing job to give us these great cars to fight with.”

Newgarden can win the title if he wins the race and Power finishes no better than fourth. If Newgarden can’t win the race, he can still win the title if he finishes second or third and Power finishes 15th or worse.

Scott Dixon. Photo: IndyCar / Joe Skibinski

SCOTT DIXON - 20 Points Back

Best Championship Position: 1st (2003, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2020)

2022 Wins: 2 (Toronto, Nashville)

Best Laguna Seca Finish: 3rd (2019)

Dixon has a chance to make history this weekend. If he wins his seventh championship, he’ll tie the legendary A.J. Foyt for the most titles in IndyCar history.

"For us, we set out two goals and we won the Indianapolis 500 with Marcus [Erricsson], which was tremendous, and then definitely top off the season with a 7th championship would be crazy,” Dixon said. “We’ll do all that we can. It is definitely going to be a tough race with Laguna Seca.

“(Tire) degradation is probably going to be very high. The race should be exciting and probably pretty tough to see who the final winner is going to be. We’ll see what we’ve got; we can only try.”

Like Newgarden, Dixon can win the title if he wins the race and Power finishes no better than fourth. If Dixon can’t win the race, he can still win if he finishes second or third and Power finishes 15th or worse.

Marcus Ericsson. Photo: IndyCar / Joe Skibinski

MARCUS ERICSSON - 39 Points Back

Best Championship Position: 6th (2021)

2022 Wins: 1 (Indianapolis 500)

Best Laguna Seca Finish: 6th (2021)

Marcus Ericsson has a chance to win two of IndyCar’s biggest prizes in a single season.

In May, he became just the second driver from Sweden to win the Indy 500. Now he looks to cap off a dream season with a championship as well.

“We want to go out strong,” Ericsson said. “We still have a chance in the championship, so all we can do is go there to win the race and see where things shake out. I’m excited and feel like we’re going to have a strong package there after our test a week ago.

“I’m really looking forward to it and want to finish this year strong. A win would be nice; that’s what we’re aiming for.”

Realistically, Ericsson will have to win, have Newgarden and Dixon both finish outside of the top 5, and have Power finish 20th or worse to clinch the title.

However, stranger things have happened in racing, and as Yogi Berra once famously said, “It ain’t over til it’s over”.

Scott McLaughlin. Photo: IndyCar / Chris Owens

SCOTT MCLAUGHLIN - 41 Points Back

Best Championship Position: 14th (2021)

2022 Wins: 3 (St. Petersburg, Mid-Ohio, Portland)

Best Laguna Seca Finish: 12th (2021)

If you thought Marcus Ericsson’s path to a championship was a long shot, see what faces McLaughlin. He’ll basically have to pray that all four drivers ahead of him crash out of the race to even have a remote chance at winning the title.

However, he still enters this weekend with a mathematical chance to win because he won at Portland last Sunday.

“We did exactly what we needed to do this weekend, which was win and get max points to keep ourselves in the championship fight,” McLaughlin said after winning at Portland. “Yeah, we’re a long shot. I don’t care because we have a shot. so I’m looking forward to it.”

If McLaughlin falls short, so be it. But at the same time, he'll likely go into 2023 as one of the likely favorites based upon what he has accomplished in 2022. His time is coming. It isn't a matter of if he'll win a championship, but rather when he'll win a championship.