Breaking it down: The breaking up of JGR?

Could Joe Gibbs Racing look a lot different as early as 2023 or 2024? There are signs already such may be the case.

Joe Gibbs Racing endured a bad case of the blues in Monday's rain-rescheduled Drydene 400 after constant misfortune negated strong runs for three of the organization's four drivers, leaving the team wondering what could have been had things went their way.

As the team collectively looked the best they have all year in terms of speed, it also left fans wondering “what could be?” when it comes to the future of one of NASCAR’s perennial top teams.

Besides Christopher Bell, who took home a fourth-place finish, each JGR driver faced terrible luck that put them in the spotlight at some point throughout the afternoon.

After winning Stage One and looking like the driver to beat, Denny Hamlin fell victim to a loose wheel during stage break pitstops. The miscue sent him to the back of the field and consequently resulted in a mandatory four-race suspension for crew chief Chris Gabehart and two other crew members.

Despite the setback, Hamlin made quick work of the field and made it all the way back up to 4th place before he found himself in the wrong place at the wrong time. He was collected by a spinning Cody Ware and sustained heavy right-side damage that took him out of contention for the race win and left him with a 21st-place finish.

With Hamlin gone, the door opened for teammate Kyle Busch to pull away as the favorite to win the race. That is until a poorly timed caution during green flag pit stops left him stuck a lap down.

Although he got the wave around shortly thereafter, the deficit from the caution was insurmountable for the younger Busch brother. Instead of competing for the win, he played catch-up the rest of the afternoon and settled for a seventh-place finish despite leading a race-high 103 laps.

Just when it seemed as though JGR’s luck could not get any worse, Martin Truex Jr. spun out on the final lap after a hard block from Ross Chastain as they battled for third place. Instead of going home with at least a top-five, Truex Jr fell out of the top 10 and went home in 12th after running upfront all day.

Now, bad days are a grim reality of racing. Yet, Monday’s struggles for JGR put the team on center stage and prompted a discussion far more critical than a simple talk about how the race could have gone differently.

Instead, the individual bad luck of each driver put the four-car team in the spotlight in such a way that leaves everyone wondering what’s next for one of NASCAR’s most storied organizations of the modern era.

Martin Truex Jr.'s future is one of the most pressing questions at Joe Gibbs Racing. Photo: James Gilbert / Getty Images

Perhaps the most likely shakeup of the offseason is the possible retirement of Martin Truex Jr. The 41-year-old driver is a free agent at the end of the season and he has been adamant that he is unsure of his future in the Cup Series.

Earlier in the season, Truex Jr. went on record to say that his future in the sport depends on how he feels about the new Gen 7 car.

“​​I still love racing, but for sure, that’s going to be a big deal," Truex Jr. said. "If it’s not fun, I won’t hang around too long. I don’t have to do this anymore. I’m still around because I really want to do this and continue winning races and hopefully more championships.”

WIth Truex's most recent win coming at Richmond last fall and a second-place finish in the championship last year, Truex Jr. is still by all means a championship contender. However, he has struggled with the new car compared to his past years in the Cup Series.

With his free agency coming up at the end of the season -- unless the team signs him to a renewal before then -- Truex is easily the biggest question mark when it comes to the impending Silly Season for JGR.

Will Kyle Busch return to JGR after this season? Could he potentially start his own Cup team? Photo: Chris Graythen / Getty Images

If Truex is the biggest question mark, teammate Kyle Busch is the biggest wild card. With his contract also ending at the end of the season, recent remarks from Busch and the loss of long-time anchor sponsor M&M’s throw a perplexing curveball into the scenario.

When asked earlier this season about the outlook on a contract extension with JGR, Busch abruptly replied, “Ask Joe Gibbs,” which sparked a flurry of speculation from fans and media alike.

Now, it’s important to not read too much into Busch’s remarks, as he is well-known for curt and controversial soundbites. That being said, the fact that the two-time champion for JGR does not have a contract extension in place by now -- and has long mentioned his desire to eventually start his own Cup team -- could present an interesting dilemma of timing that may raise some eyebrows.

Especially when you put owner Joe Gibbs’ grandson, Ty Gibbs, into the equation.

The 19 year-old hotshoe has collected 7 wins in just 28 Xfinity series starts and is blazing his way up the ranks. With his grandfather as a marquee team owner in the Cup Series, Ty's path to NASCAR’s highest level is set to accelerate even further.

With this factor coming into play, the odds that one of JGR’s four drivers are out of a seat by season’s end are significantly multiplied.

Even though he's the newest kid on the JGR block, Christopher Bell potentially could be far from safe when it comes to his future with the organization, just like predecessors Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones. Photo: Chris Graythen / Getty Images

With that in mind, nobody on the JGR roster is safe. The newest of the four drivers, Christopher Bell, is off to a rough tenure for the team. After replacing Erik Jones in the #20 car, Bell's results have been underwhelming outside of a win at the Daytona Road Course last year.

In fact, up to this point this season, Bell has a worse average finish than Jones, who now drives for the smaller Petty-GMS stable. While it’s somewhat safe to expect Bell to get a few years to find his footing, it is not unprecedented that Gibbs will force him out of his seat for the next up-and-coming driver in a very crowded Toyota prospect pipeline.

Jones was let go from Gibbs after only three years, despite winning two races. Before him, Daniel Suarez got the boot from JGR after two seasons, even after winning the Xfinity Series championship the season before moving up to Cup.

With the history that precedes him, Bell’s performance should give him no reassurance that his seat is guaranteed. If anything the uncertainty of his teammate’s future with Gibbs is the only thing that may give him some comfort about retaining his seat.

Denny Hamlin, right, shown with teammate Martin Truex Jr., may have the most options of any current JGR Cup driver. If things go south, he could potentially become an owner-driver for 23XI, the team he co-owns with NBA legend Michael Jordan. Photo: Logan Riely / Getty Images

The closest thing to a sure thing for JGR is Denny Hamlin, who has one more year on his contract after this season. However, even Hamlin, Gibbs’ longest-tenured driver, comes with some uncertainty, as well.

Last year, Hamlin started 23XI Racing with NBA Hall of Famer Michael Jordan and his future with his only Cup owner in his career has understandably been in slight question ever since. In fact, it would not be the first time a driver that built his legacy with Gibbs left to drive with his own team.

In 2009, Tony Steward left JGR to form a rebranded Stewart-Haas Racing and saw nearly instant success that secured him the 2011 championship as an owner-driver. For NASCAR fans, it's hard to imagine Hamlin racing anywhere besides JGR, but it would also make a lot more sense for him as an owner to drive for his own team.

For now, Hamlin’s 23XI Racing enjoys a partnership with JGR that plays a large role in the production of their cars. He may be the closest to a sure thing -- outside of Ty Gibbs -- that JGR has in its stable right now.

And even, then it's hard to imagine Hamlin does not at least consider driving for his own team when he becomes a free agent at the conclusion of the 2023 season.

The speculation across the board is destined to become more intense as the season continues and the answers fans crave likely won’t get answered until weeks after the checker flags fly in Phoenix later this year.

Every driver currently at Joe Gibbs Racing is talented enough to command a quality ride at the Cup Series level, and any type of moves made by them would potentially shake up the look of some of the other major teams in NASCAR, particularly those who may have their own pending changes or vacancies.

It’s nearly unprecedented to see so much uncertainty for an elite Cup Series team and the possibilities are enticing, to say the least.

No matter what happens, suffice to say that the impending future of JGR will be a hot topic of conversation throughout the season and even more so once the Silly Season begins.

If Silly Season hasn't begun already, that is.