F1 News: Mercedes' Ground Effect Struggles Revealed As Insider Makes 2025 Prediction

Saajan Jogia | Nov 13, 2024

Oct 18, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team driver Lewis Hamilton (44) of Team Great Britain drives during practice for the 2024 US Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Former F1 driver and Sky F1 presenter Karun Chandhok has highlighted Mercedes' ongoing challenges since the start of the ground effect era in 2022, pointing out the team’s unpredictable performance trend that potentially extends into 2025. Chandhok dismissed the possibility of a major redesign for Mercedes in 2025 as the team is expected to shift focus toward the 2026 car in preparation for the sport's new regulatory era.

Mercedes enjoyed a dominant run from 2014 to 2021 in the turbo-hybrid era, claiming eight Constructors' titles, while Lewis Hamilton secured six of his seven world championships. However, with the shift to the ground effect era in 2022, Mercedes took a wrong turn in its development path, resulting in significant struggles with its car.

Red Bull initially stood alone in mastering the new era, courtesy of the team's chief technical officer Adrian Newey, but this season saw McLaren and Ferrari step up, ultimately overtaking the Milton Keynes outfit in the Constructors' Championship. Mercedes also enjoyed a brief resurgence, securing three Grand Prix victories before the summer break and ending its winless streak since 2022. However, post-break upgrades, particularly the package introduced at the United States Grand Prix, disrupted the W15's balance and led to new challenges.

Mercedes has confirmed that its 2025 car will be an evolution of the current model, as F1 teams will officially begin work on their 2026 cars next year. This approach risks carrying over many of the W15’s existing issues if they remain unaddressed. Reflecting on the team’s challenging journey in the ground effect era, Chandhok noted that despite Mercedes' attempts to improve its performance, the car ultimately fell short, resulting in a drop to fourth place in the Constructors' Championship. When asked if Mercedes could challenge for the championship in 2025, he told Betway:

"It’s very hard to read their situation because I feel like in the last three years on so many occasions, you hear them say that they have finally understood the issues and could crack it.

"A good example was the front wing which unlocked some performance and we then see a temporary boost and results this year like Canada, Spain or Silverstone, the car looked good and competitive.

"But it’s then just gone away again, and they’ve gone back to being the fourth best team. It’s been the case since these set of regulations came in. On recent form you would have to say they are the fourth best team.

"Are they going to go completely back to the drawing board and do a whole new car for 2025 ahead of the new regulations in 2026? I don’t think so.

"The 2025 car is going to be an evolution of 2024 so maybe their effort is fully focused on 2026 and getting the best car for the new regulations."