Saddle Bronc World Championship Analysis Coming Into Round 10

It will come down to the Round 10 rides in the saddle bronc to determine the World Champion.

Saddle Bronc / Hillary Maybery for Rodeo On SI

So, nine rounds of the Wrangler National Finals Rodeo are done and just one more remains. Who will come out victorious out of the Thomas and Mack and be crowned the World Champion in the saddle bronc event?

Let's take a quick look at the World Standings so far:

1. Ryder Wright $435,131.64
2. Damian Brennan $360,941.47
3. Wyatt Casper $352,941.00
4. Brody Cress $325,773.95
5. Zeke Thurston $320,001.90
6. Lefty Holman $281,577.96
7. Statler Wright $274,286.36
8. Kade Bruno $255,958.65
9. Dawson Hay $248,596.47
10. Brody Wells $229,205.82
11. Sage Newman $218,405.64
12. Kolby Wanchuk $171,386.20
13. Zachary Dallas $146,220.16
14. Logan Hay $144,041.28
15. Ben Andersen $142,718.14

There is one round left so, recalling the round payoff:

1. $33,687.18
2. $26,623.74
3. $20,103.64
4. $14,126.88
5. $8,693.47
6. $5,433.42

Now, there is the ever important average payout:

1. $86,391.31
2. $70,091.06
3. $55,420.84
4. $40,750.62
5. $29,340.45
6. $21,190.32
7. $14,670.22
8. $8,150.12

Wyatt Casper is holding down the number one position in the average. Dawson Hay sits second and Damian Brennan is third.

So, what has to happen in Round 10 to be the World Champion?

Let's start with the World Standings leader Ryder Wright. He is currenly sitting No. 8 in the average which if he doesn't move up at all in Round 10, will pay $8,150.12. He is 24 points ahead of the next man in the average so, really if he just gets a qualified ride, he is nearly guaranteed that average check.

With everything else staying the same and Wright not placing in Round 10, he would have a lead of $82,340.27 over Damian Brennan.

Brennan is sitting No. 3 in the average on nine head. That is a paycheck of $55,420.84 meaning that if Wright just has a qualified ride and does not place in the round, Brennan would need to hold his place in the average and win the round to catch Wright for the title.

Wyatt Casper is leading the average thus far by three points. Adding in an average win would still leave Casper short some if Wright holds his average check. So, this scenerio required Wright to place in the round to stay ahead if Casper is to place in the round. Casper will have to place higher in the round than Wright if they both place in Round 10 in order to win the title. If Wright places ahead of him and holds his average spot, he will be the World Champion.

Zeke Thurston is holding down No. 4 in the average. Thurston would need to win the average and place second in the round to catch Wright, if Wright were not to win another dime, which is unlikely. If Wright stays in the average, it looks like it will be mathematically impossible for Thurston to catch him.

What about Brody Cress and Lefty Holman? Cress is a nearly impossible scenerio given that he is No. 12 in the average and nearly $110,000 behind Wright.

Holman sits No. 10 in the average. The most he could ride is nine horses total meaning that he could only move up two spots if all the men ahead of him ride their horses. Looking at the standings now, it appears that even if he won the round, there is no way he can catch Wright.

So really it all comes down to Wright. He needs to ride his Round 10 horse and place ahead of Wyatt Casper in the round and that will pretty much sum up the win for him.

Looks like it will come down to a one-header here between two very talented cowboys. Time will tell.