What To Watch For in the Final Five Rounds of the National Finals Breakaway Roping

The ladies of the Women's Professional Rodeo Association kicked off the National Finals Rodeo festivities with the first five rounds. Let's analyze the situation.

Jackie Crawford / Hillary Maybery for Rodeo on SI

Viva Las Vegas! The festivities have started. It is fitting that the National Finals Rodeo action starts at the South Point Hotel and Casino, owned by Michael Gaughan. The man has had an incredible influence on the town and the fact that it turns into 'Cowboy Town' for almost two weeks every December.

What better way to start the show than with 15 of the most talented breakaway ropers in the world?

These ladies all rode into town with a gold buckle in mind. Here we will give you a snapshot of how things looked before day one and then how they ended with analysis on who has a chance at the World Championship and what has to happen. Get ready, let's dig in.

Here are the Pre-NFBR standings for the ladies of the breakaway:

1. Shelby Meged (2023 World Champion) $146,664.56
2. Josie Conner $139,098.18
3. Jackie Crawford $135,498.02
4. Kelsie Domer $133,036.93
5. Taylor Munsell $132,997.53
6. Martha Angelone $131,098.51
7. Maddy Deerman $112,897.38
8. Danielle Lowman $97,998.75
9. Rickie Fanning $97,007.54
10. Macy Young $89,530.89
11. Kendal Pierson $87,558.56
12. Hali Williams $84,790.79
13. TiAda Gray $82,446.97
14. Rylee George $81,956.93
15. Jordan Jo Hollabaugh $77,756.64

Now, let's remind everyone what the payouts look like at the NFBR:

Each of the 10 Rounds:
1 $6,196.58
2 $5,128.20
3 $4,059.83
4 $2,991.45
5 $1,923.08
6 $1,068.38

Average Payoff:
1 $16,913.63
2 $13,722.38
3 $10,850.25
4 $7,978.13
5 $5,744.25
6 $4,148.63
7 $2,872.13
8 $1,595.63

Now, let's talk specifics for a minute. There are still seven ladies who have roped all five calves. This means that it is still possible that all of the average spots could be paid out on ten head. The question is whether or not those ladies can just catch the rest. If they do, that could significantly impact the World Championship race. We will come back to that in a minute.

Here are the updated, obviously unofficial standings after the first five rounds:

1. Josie Conner $151,277.86
2. Shelby Meged $151,187.35
3. Jackie Crawford $143,617.67
4. Taylor Munsell $142,185.55
5. Martha Angelone $140,088.68
6. Kelsie Domer $139,767.70
7. Maddy Deerman $115,888.84
8. Danielle Lowman $104,658.29
9. Macy Young $100,214.65
10. Rickie Fanning $99,998.99
11. Hali Williams $99,641.21
12. Rylee George $97,875.72
13. Kendal Pierson $89,054.29
14. TiAda Gray $83,922.90
15. Jordan Jo Hollabaugh $77,756.64

What makes all of this very interesting though is if we stop to take a look at what happens with the average. If the rounds were over right now and the standings updated and the average paid out after five rounds, Kelsie Domer would be the 2024 World Champion.

Domer would edge out Conner by $616.79 purley due to their current rank in the average. But, the roping doesn't stop after five and all 15 talents will have five more chances to shine on the arena floor.

What that means for the competitors and fans alike is that this is still anyone's game. Conner and Meged are neck and neck in the standings and both have missed just one calf, so essentially they are even in the average, too. If it comes down to just those two, it will literally be who has a better day.

The race isn't just about them though. Jackie Crawford has just as good of chance to win the world as anyone right now. She has roped all five calves and is still very much in the average and the championship. Depending on the performance of others, her fate may come down to one broken barrier.

Taylor Munsell went a long way out of the average and while she is certainly capable of winning rounds, a lot would have to happen with other ropers having pretty bad luck for Munsell to still be in the World Championship discussion. What she will be though is a thorn in those ladies' sides. You can bet Munsell will be coming full steam ahead tomorrow with round wins on her mind.

Martha Angelone has moved up one place in the world standings after day one. She was absolutely spot on placing in the first four consecutive rounds. Then she unfortunately missed in round five. This dropped her all the way to the ninth spot in the current average ranking. Don't despair though, this cowgirl will come back tomorrow with a clear head and on a mission.

Kelsie Domer is the one to watch. The truth in this story is that she is commanding the entire situation. If she places in a few more rounds on day two and stays holding down her solid number two position in the average, she is quite likely the World Champion.

So, now we wait and watch. We watch these incredible ladies back in the box five more times - each with the same expenses as every other cowboy and cowgirl going down the road. Each with the same gold buckle dream. We wait and we watch them compete for a fraction of what others will have the opportunity to win later in the week. We watch them break ceilings, set new standards, and revive dreams. We watch them smile and wave to the crowd, even when their dreams just left the building with a rope still attached to the horn after a miss. What we won't wait for is to watch their class and sportsmanship - they have already clearly shown us that.

Good luck to every single one that backs in the box for their final five calves of the 2024 season.

Stay tuned to Rodeo on SI for full coverage.