National Finals Rodeo Round 10 Scenarios

Here’s what you need to know as the 2023 Wrangler National Finals Rodeo wraps up on Saturday, Dec. 16.

PRCA Photo by Hailey Rae

There are two world title races that have already been decided and the rest will be determined by a one-head match at the Thomas & Mack arena on Saturday, Dec. 16, at the 2023 Wrangler National Finals Rodeo. 

Here are your scenarios to watch:

All-Around:

The world champion all-around cowboy is Stetson Wright, who has earned $479,620.60. After Round 9, his nearest competitor is Caleb Smidt, with earnings of $235,543.38. The year's competition is over because Round 10 will not offer enough payout for Smidt to catch up with Wright.

Barrel Racing:

Brittany Pozzi Tonozzi has had an incredible year so far, as she has already secured the world title in barrel racing with a record-setting performance. She sealed the victory after Round 8, breaking the regular and year-end season earnings records. Tonozzi has placed in eight out of the nine rounds and is on track to break the record for the fastest average total time. If she finishes Round 10 in 14.17 seconds or less, she will set a new record and win the average. It is expected that Tonozzi will easily surpass $500,000 in earnings for the year.

Lisa Lockhart, a fan favorite, won second place in Round 9 and surpassed the talented Sherry Cervi to become the all-time career earnings record holder. Lockhart has earned $3,408,613, more than Cervi's previous record of $3,388,790. However, this year's world champion, Tonozzi, is just a little behind, earning $3,284,271.

Bareback Riding:

The current leader in bareback riding is the Rookie of the Year, Keenan Hayes, who has earned $324,596.30. Hayes is currently ranked second in the average standings with a score of 760.0 on nine head, just behind Jess Pope who is leading with 767.0 on nine head.

Clayton Biglow is second in the world standings with $269,892. However, he is currently in 10th place in the average standings due to his low scores of 75 in Round 9 and 75.5 in Round 3.

Rocker Steiner has moved from seventh to third place by winning $112,094 at the NFR. Steiner is ranked eighth in the average, scoring 749.5 on nine head.

The bottom line is that if Hayes successfully rides his horse and gets a score, he will be the world champion. However, they could catch up to him if he bucks off and Biglow or Steiner perform well.

Pope has won $124,158 at the NFR and is currently leading in the average standings. The average payoff is $78,747.07. Pope has climbed from 10th to fourth place after nine rounds. So, it's important not to underestimate him.

Ultimately, it all comes down to Hayes.

Steer Wrestling:

Dalton Massey has maintained his No. 1 position throughout the finals and currently leads the steer wrestling world standings with $264,677.96. In Round 8, Massey took a 10.0 second run, which hurt his average position. He is currently sixth overall in the average, with a $19,315 payout.

Several contenders have a chance at the world title.

However, the outcome is in Massey's hands. If Massey stays in the average at the sixth-place position, and Jesse Brown remains in the second place, Brown would have to place two positions higher in Round 10 than Dalton to earn the world title.

If Massey were to drop entirely out of the average, then the world title would be up for grabs for anyone, including Jesse Brown and Tyler Waguespack.

Team Roping:

Round 10 will turn into a one-head match in the team roping, where Thorp and Wade are currently in third place in the average as one of three teams that have roped eight head. Derrick Begay and Colter Todd are the only team to have roped all nine.

If Thorp and Wade get a no time in Round 10, it can drop them up to three places in the average. This possibility requires the other teams to hold their place in the average and place in the round.

The leaders of the average are Turquoise Circuit cowboys, Derrick Begay and Colter Todd. If they win the average and Wade and Thorp get a no time, Begay and Todd would need to place second or higher in the round to earn the world championship.

Saddle Bronc:

Zeke Thurston is currently leading after the ninth round in the saddle bronc competition. He has a strong chance of winning the title, leading the average with 776.5 points on nine head. Seven cowboys have qualified on all nine horses, but if Thurston gets a qualified ride in Round 10, he will likely be the world champion. However, if he bucks off, Sage Newman is the only cowboy who could catch up with him. It is difficult to predict the outcome, as the average placings would depend on several rides. Nevertheless, Thurston will likely be the world champion for 2023.

Tie-Down Roping:

The tie-down ropers have been delivering an exhilarating performance, and the championship title will be determined in the tenth round.

Riley Webb has been consistently impressive throughout the week, placing in five out of the nine rounds and performing exceptionally well in the others. His aggressive roping skills have earned him second place in the average after nine rounds. If he maintains this position, he won't need to place in the final round to become the world champion. His current earnings of $63,889.14 for being second in the average would take his year-end earnings to $450,851.79, which is unbeatable for Haven Meged, even if he wins the average and the final round.

Meged is currently leading in the average with 68.7 seconds on nine, just a little ahead of Webb at 72.0 on nine. The fans should give Meged credit for making the race an exciting one. So far, Meged has won $137,448.48 at the NFR, with Webb picking up $108,557.67 after the ninth round.

However, if Webb falls out of the average, Meged could have a chance at the title.

Therefore, the race is far from over yet.

Bull Riding:

Round 9 of bull riding was left unfinished because Ky Hamilton was given the option of a re-ride on Saturday, Dec. 16.

Currently, Hamilton has a commanding lead that no one can catch. He has banked $516,666.68, while the second-place cowboy, Stetson Wright (who is not competing at the NFR), has $378,629.98.

Josh Frost is in third place in Round 9 before Hamilton takes his re-ride. The third-place prize would add $18,324.79 to Frost's total, which, even if he could win the average and the round in the final performance, it would not be enough to catch Hamilton.

Hamilton has the world title sewn up, regardless of what happens.

Round 10:

This year's Round 10 promises to be as thrilling and action-packed as ever, with the potential for multiple records to be broken and new heights to be achieved.