Islam Makhachev Playing With Stacked Deck
SI’s MMA Notes, Quotes, and Anecdotes runs every Monday.
In retrospect, there was no way Islam Makhachev was losing.
Alexander Volkanovski, it turned out, was in no condition to defeat Makhachev on Saturday at UFC 294. That became clear as soon as we saw Volkanovski in the Octagon lacking the definition he typically possesses after a full training camp. The fantasy of Volkanovski winning–and I was among those who picked him to win–was quickly replaced with the harsh reality: he had no shot.
That is how the fight played out over the next three minutes, with Makhachev knocking out Volkanovski all while making a convincing case for why he is the best fighter in the world.
But is that the case?
Courtesy Zuffa LLC
Makhachev is a phenomenal fighter, no doubt one of the best. He also takes full advantage of the rules, which is a champion’s prerogative. Like Volkanovski said last week, there was no way Makhachev was accepting a fight like this on such short notice. His calculated approach is pragmatic as it is successful, and the proof is in the results–Makhachev has won 25 of his 26 bouts.
Before the fight was offered to Alexander Volkanovski, it was also offered to Justin Gaethje. He was wise to avoid this fight, declining to fill in for the injured Charles Oliveira, as he knew that cutting down from 188 pounds in less than two weeks was one of many red flags. Had Gaethje accepted the fight and then lost, he would be removed from title contention–and that is precisely what happened to Volkanovski, who was knocked out in the opening round on Saturday.
Fighting Makhachev on short notice is a guaranteed loss. And for all his brilliance in the cage, three of Makhachev’s last five wins have come against opponents fighting on short notice. In addition to the victory against Volkanovski, Makhachev defeated Dan Hooker (filling in for Rafael Dos Anjos) in October of 2021 at UFC 267, which took place only weeks after Hooker defeated Nasrat Haqparast at UFC 266. After Beneil Dariush backed out of a bout against Makhachev in February of 2022, Bobby Green had only 10 days to prepare for Makhachev, who quickly won their bout.
This is not to imply Makhachev is anything less than magnificent. But he is also a master of taking advantage of the situation.
Moving forward, Makhachev’s next title defense should be against Gaethje. Makhachev already made quick work of Oliveira, who could be in line for the winner. Gaethje will be a very challenging bout for Makhachev, who is in desperate need of stealthy competition after wiping out Volkanovski.
Khamzat Chimaev or Dricus du Plessis: who should be next in line for a middleweight title shot against Sean Strickland?
Courtesy Zuffa LLC
Chimaev staked his claim on Saturday with a majority decision victory against Kamaru Usman. After controlling the first round, he struggled with Usman in the second and third. Chimaev said he injured his hand in the first round, potentially even breaking it, but the victory against Usman–who was making his middleweight debut on short notice–was far from dominant.
Du Plessis, however, blitzed Robert Whittaker this past summer at UFC 290 in a title eliminator. The TKO victory was spectacular, and he manhandled Whittaker in a manner that is rare.
Courtesy Zuffa LLC
While both would make for interesting title fights, du Plessis should be next in line.
At the UFC 294 post-show press conference, Dana White was asked about the possibility of Vadim Nemkov fighting for the UFC.
Nemkov is the reigning light heavyweight champion in Bellator. He would be a phenomenal addition for the UFC–as would middleweight champ Johnny Eblen, lightweight champ Usman Nurmagomedov, welterweight champion Yaroslav Amosov, and AJ McKee (does anyone else get the feeling the Pitbull brothers would sign with the PFL?). Of course, that is all a moot point, as each of those fighters is signed to a contract with Bellator.
But what happens if that is no longer the case?
If the end of Bellator is near, what happens to the existing contracts? If the fighters are allowed to enter free agency, it will open up a whole new set of opportunities.
