UFC 292 Preview and Predictions
The MMA Notebook runs every Friday.
BOSTON, MA–The UFC is bringing a loaded card to its last big card of the summer, headlining UFC 292 with two title bouts and two others with high stakes.
The card is built around Aljamain Sterling’s quest to further cement himself as one of the UFC’s best bantamweights of all time. His opponent, Sean O’Malley, gets his first shot at gold, and Zhang Weili returns to the cage for the first time since November to defend her strawweight title against Amanda Lemos.
Ian Garry can make a statement with a win against welterweight division gatekeeper Neil Magny, and the card opens with a Chito Vera-Pedro Munhoz bout that should be compelling.
A day ahead of fight night, here are my predictions:
Main event: Bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley
Aljamain Sterling is going to demolish Sean O’Malley.
I just can’t envision this fight going any other way.
This is a shot for O’Malley to reach an entirely new level of notoriety in the sport. O’Malley (16-1, 1 NC) has a long reach, precision, knockout power, but simply has not competed against the caliber of fighters that Sterling has defeated during his ongoing nine-fight win streak. O’Malley did defeat Petr Yan, but it was especially close, and he enters this title fight with an array of question marks surrounding whether he truly is a title contender.
Sterling (23-3) can strike with O’Malley, and he is, by far, the more accomplished grappler. A victory here will likely propel him to the featherweight division for a massive bout against Alexander Volkanovski. The idea of O’Malley playing spoiler just doesn’t seem realistic.
Pick: Aljamain Sterling
****
Co-main event: Strawweight champion Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos
Zhang Weili has won 23 of her last 25 fights, with the only two losses coming against Rose Namajunas.
With Namajunas exploring a move in weight class, there is a new opportunity for someone else to dethrone Weili. Amanda Lemos has that chance at UFC 292, and her power makes her a threat. But Lemos (13-2-1) is not nearly as well rounded as Weili (23-3), who should control this fight once it goes to the ground.
Weili last fought in November when she won the belt back, defeating Carla Esparza. This will be her first fight in Boston, and she will have Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla in attendance supporting her. Unlike the Celtics, who let a championship opportunity slip away this past NBA season, Weili should make the most of her moment.
Pick: Zhang Weili
****
Welterweight bout: Neil Magny vs. Ian Garry
Neil Magny has a history of exposing fighters who claim they are contenders. As gatekeeper of the welterweight division, he has provided rude awakenings to Phil Rowe, Daniel Rodriguez, and Max Griffin, but Ian Garry is a whole different matter.
Garry (12-0) looks to extend his undefeated streak and climb the rankings. Magny (28-10) replaced an injured Geoff Neal, which should make for an even better fight. He has the most wins (21) in division history, a number he added to in June when he defeated Rowe.
But Magny, 36, is also 11 years older than Garry, and he is making his second weight cut in two months. Garry’s judo should be a separating factor, and he is poised to deliver his biggest win yet.
Pick: Ian Garry
****
Bantamweight bout: Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista
This fight has the best backstory: Da’Mon Blackshear fought last Saturday, defeating Jose Johnson on the UFC Fight Night in Vegas with a masterful Twister submission, and now fills in for Cody Garbrandt at UFC 292.
Blackshear (14-5-1) winning fights on back-to-back weekends would be a remarkable feat. Yet standing in his way of history is Mario Bautista, who has quietly put together an impressive four-fight winning streak.
Bautista (12-2) will not get the same notoriety against Blackshear that he would have against Garbrandt, a former UFC bantamweight champion. But he’ll still get the victory, pouncing on Blackshear, who is cutting weight for the second time in two weeks.
Once Garbrandt was out, this fight became a candidate to be moved to the prelims. It would have been replaced with Chris Weidman’s return, but that Weidman-Brad Tavares bout is a better draw on ESPN.
Pick: Mario Bautista
****
Bantamweight bout: Chito Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz
The toughest fight on the card to pick is the opener.
Chito Vera looked surprisingly ordinary in his loss last March to Cory Sandhagen, but the aftermath of that fight has proven Sandhagen is operating at the highest level of his career. Prior to that loss, Vera (20-8-1) had won four in a row, including impressive victories against Dominick Cruz and Rob Font.
Pedro Munhoz is a solid, well-rounded fighter. He looked fantastic in April when he defeated Chris Gutiérrez, his first victory since February of 2021. Munhoz (20-7, 2 NC) lost a close bout against Cruz in December of 2021, and his fight with O’Malley ended as no contest after he was poked in the eye.
A victory here is a shot in the arm for either Vera or Munhoz’s title hopes. As competitive as this should be, I think Vera’s striking is the difference.
As of now, Vera is the only fighter to defeat Sean O’Malley. A rematch would make for a compelling fight after Vera wins at 292 and O’Malley loses.
Pick: Chito Vera
****
The Pick ‘Em Section:
UFC 292 bantamweight title bout: Aljamain Sterling (c) vs. Sean O’Malley
Pick: Aljamain Sterling
UFC 292 women’s strawweight title bout: Zhang Weili (c) vs. Amanda Lemos
Pick: Zhang Weili
UFC 292 welterweight bout: Neil Magny vs. Ian Garry
Pick: Ian Garry
UFC 292 bantamweight bout: Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista
Pick: Mario Bautista
UFC 292 bantamweight bout: Chito Vera vs. Pedro Munhoz
Pick: Chito Vera
Last week: 2-3
2023 record: 88-54
Justin Barrasso can be reached at JBarrasso@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @JustinBarrasso.
