Fantasy football 2014 draft prep: New Orleans Saints team preview

Author:
Michael Beller
Publish date:
Aug 5, 2014

There is little debate about where Jimmy Graham ranks among tight ends in fantasy leagues. While perhaps there should be more -- Rob Gronkowski did put up more points per game in 2011 and 2012 -- Graham enters this season as the unquestioned No. 1 tight end in the rankings.

There is plenty debate, however, as to where exactly he slots in the overall rankings. Is Graham a safe first-round selection, or are guys in his average draft position neighborhood such as Dez Bryant, Marshawn Lynch and DeMarco Murray better picks, pushing Graham into the early-to-mid-second round? Let’s audit his numbers to figure out just where he belongs.

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Before jumping into a discussion on how Graham compares with the other elite fantasy players, we need to dispose of his stats. Graham has had a significant role in the New Orleans offense for the last three seasons. From 2011 through 2013, he has averaged 90 receptions (142 targets) for 1,169 yards and 12 touchdowns. In standard-scoring leagues, that translates to 188.9 fantasy points. Last year, the No. 10 running back, Reggie Bush, had 193.2 points, and the No. 11 back, Ryan Mathews, had 187.1 points.

Of course, 2014 Graham won’t simply be a reflection of 2011 through 2013 Graham. There’s plenty of reason to believe he’s both getting better as a player and that his position within the Saints’ offense is gaining prominence. Graham scored a career-high 16 touchdowns last year, a development that can be linked, at least in part, with Darren Sproles’ declining role. Sproles is now in Philadelphia, and while Pierre Thomas proved himself as a pass-catching back a season ago, he’s not the sort of weapon out of the backfield that cannibalizes Graham’s production the way Sproles did.

Secondly, in 2011 and 2012, Marques Colston was at the peak of his production. Not including the 2007 season in which he played just 11 games, he set career lows in yards (943) touchdowns (five) and yards per catch (12.6) last year. He also had just 110 targets, a career low for a season in which he played at least 15 games. Graham is now undoubtedly the top target for one of the league’s best quarterbacks in one of the league’s most potent offenses.

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With Graham established as a safe first-round pick, where does he rank among players at all positions? Graham’s average draft position is 8.3, which makes him the seventh pick in a typical draft, trailing LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson and Eddie Lacy. That means the opportunity cost of selecting Graham is a top-tier receiver like Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant, or a second-tier running back like Marshawn Lynch or Montee Ball. Fantasy owners might feel like they can’t invest that high a pick in a tight end with running backs at a premium and receivers so high-scoring.

However, they should also know that the first round is about locking in floors. Graham comes with one of the safest floors of any player in the league, certainly safer than any of the non-elite running backs. With the devaluation in running backs, owners should be looking past the position once the top group is off the board anyway, and the receiver position is as deep as ever. His current spot as the seventh player off the board in a typical draft is appropriate. Don’t worry about that “TE” designation next to his name. Just make the pick and watch the yards and touchdowns roll in.

Most overvalued player

Marques Colston, WR -- Colston remains a productive player in one of the NFL’s best offenses. He will be counted on to be the second option behind Graham, and is still a huge weapon for Drew Brees in the red zone. At the same time, he slipped to career-worst totals across the board last year. He has never been an explosive receiver, which is perhaps a good thing as he ages since that club was never really in his bag to begin with. Unfortunately, it also limits his ceiling.

The wide receiver position is deep, and Colston is being selected in the same range as guys like Emmanuel Sanders and Kendall Wright. Colston is a bit of a square peg in a round hole here, as he isn’t traditionally overvalued, but he does come with a lower ceiling than many of the similarly priced receivers.

Most undervalued player

Drew Brees, QB -- While waiting on a quarterback still makes sense if you miss out on the top-three guys, grabbing one of them locks in rock-solid production for 16 consecutive weeks. Why is it, then, that Brees is available into the third round in some 12-team drafts? Going back to 2006, here is where Brees has ranked among quarterbacks in fantasy points each season: 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 2nd. Not only is Brees a model of consistency that comes with a high floor and a high ceiling, but you can pair him with two other very high picks in most leagues, given that he’s coming off the board in the late-second or early-third round in most drafts. Don’t let antiquated thinking about quarterbacks in fantasy leagues allow you to ignore how dominant Brees has been for nearly a decade.

As an aside, nearly every player who is projected to have a role in the New Orleans offense is worth drafting. That means wide receivers Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks, and running backs Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, should be universally selected in fantasy leagues. In an offense like this, any of them is liable to turn a profit this year.

Depth chart

QB: Drew Brees, Luke McCown, Ryan Griffin
RB: Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Travaris Cadet, Khiry Robinson
WR: Marques Colston, Kenny Stills, Brandin Cooks, Robert Meachem, Nick Toon
TE: Jimmy Graham, Benjamin Watson

Defensive analysis


	Total	vs. Pass	vs. Run	Points allowed
NFL Rank	4	2	19	4
	vs. QB	vs. WR	vs. RB	vs. TE
Fantasy Rank	3	7	8	7

All the attention is heaped upon Brees and the New Orleans offense, but this defense in 2013, under first-year coordinator Rob Ryan, was very good. The Saints held opponents to 305.7 yards and 19 points per game, both of which ranked fourth in the league. They were also fourth in sacks with 49, and had the 11th-best pass rush according to Pro Football Focus. While they were tough on opposing skill players, though, it didn’t necessarily translate into fantasy success. The Saints generated just 18 turnovers, tied for the second-lowest total. Those, of course, are the plays that lead to big scores in fantasy leagues.

Ten of last year’s starters are back, with cornerback Champ Bailey the only newcomer. The heartbeat of the 3-4 scheme is defensive end Cameron Jordan. The fourth-year man out of California had 12.5 sacks last year, and is easily the unit’s best player in IDP leagues. Rush linebacker Junior Galette was second on the team with 12 sacks a year ago, and holds down the left side with Jordan on the right. The two of them stand as the team’s best pass rushers. Linebacker Curtis Lofton, another player worthy of selection in IDP leagues, led the team with 125 tackles last year.

Strong safety Kenny Vaccaro, in his second year out of Texas, quarterbacks the secondary. He, too, should be drafted in IDP leagues after racking up 79 tackles, one sack and one interception as a rookie. Bailey does bring an impressive resume and leadership to the secondary, but he’s no longer the lockdown corner he once was.

The Saints defense is a good bet to bounce back in fantasy leagues this year. One of the best real-life units should force more turnovers than this group did a season ago, and chances are it will recover more than 37.5 percent of opponents fumbles, as it did last year. Heading into the season, the Saints should be considered a top-12 fantasy defense.

2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Knile Davis - RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Davis is about as important a handcuff as you’ll find in the league. Davis would impact fantasy standings if Jamaal Charles goes down at any point. Davis picked up 81 yards and two TDs on 27 carries when Charles was resting Week 17 last season.

Terrance West - RB, Cleveland Browns

The rookie will need to beat out veteran Ben Tate for touches, but his upside is enormous. Browns running back coach Wilbert Montgomery recently told reporters, ''He has that Ricky Watters, Walter Payton, lure-you-to-sleep-on-the-sideline move that I can accelerate or play like I’m going to accelerate and come back inside. Those are traits I haven’t seen in a while.''

Dri Archer - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s possible that the undersized third-round pick is restricted to kick return duty in his rookie year. It’s also possible that Archer emerges as a dynamic RB/WR who could score anytime he touches the ball.

Lache Seastrunk - RB, Washington Redskins

The Baylor product is behind Alfred Morris and Roy Helu on the depth chart and has developed a reputation for having awful hands. He actually dropped 10 balls and only caught nine during his two years in college. That said, Seastrunk’s running ability would make him a fantasy asset if Morris goes down with an injury.

Ka’Deem Carey - RB, Chicago Bears

Carey is an all-around running back who is capable of stepping in and producing for fantasy owners if Matt Forte gets hurt. He’s the type of rookie who would be a hot commodity if he were drafted by a team without an elite running back.

Devonta Freeman - RB, Atlanta Falcons

There is a legitimate chance that Freeman will eventually start over Steven Jackson; the rookie's average draft position will skyrocket with a dominant preseason. The former FSU back should see the field a lot if he can handle pass protection.

Christine Michael - RB, Seattle Seahawks

Michael is an instant stud if Marshawn Lynch goes down. Either way, the Seahawks have hinted at a committee approach and Lynch’s brief holdout may not have helped matters for the veteran running back. Michael has the skill set to provide RB1 numbers if he receives enough carries.

Carlos Hyde - RB, San Francisco 49ers

Anyone who saw Carlos Hyde at Ohio State knew he wouldn’t get buried in San Francisco, even with a crowded backfield. He’s arguably the most talented rookie RB and is one Frank Gore injury away from fantasy stardom.

Tre Mason - RB, St. Louis Rams

Many fantasy owners are high on Zac Stacy entering the season. But ask anyone who drafted Daryl Richardson in 2013 if Jeff Fisher is afraid to make a change at running back. The dynamic rookie Tre Mason is too talented to ride the pine forever and he’d turn into a nice fantasy option if given carries.

Chris Polk - RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Even with Darren Sproles in town, Polk would hold a ton of fantasy value if LeSean McCoy were to miss time at any point. Chip Kelly’s offense turns RBs into fantasy stars and Polk is the clear-cut backup to McCoy.

Charles Sims - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The rookie from West Virginia is expected to be an immediate handcuff to Doug Martin for fantasy purposes. Smith should contribute in passing situations early, but could steal carries from Martin as the season progresses.

Markus Wheaton - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Wheaton is expected to inherit a starting gig with Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders gone. The sophomore from Oregon State has big-play ability and could easily emerge as a must-start fantasy option on a weekly basis.

Marqise Lee - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lee is a candidate to lead the Jaguars in receptions as a rookie, but his competition isn’t exactly elite. He should be able to rack up catches and yards with Jacksonville expected to be playing from behind more often than not.

Kenny Stills - WR, New Orleans Saints

Stills has a ton of breakout potential coming off a rookie season in which he posted 641 yards on 32 catches with five TDs. He’s a big-play threat on ever possession and should easily surpass the 46 targets he received last season. He might only need 50 catches to score double-digit TDs.

Kelvin Benjamin - WR, Carolina Panthers

The 6-foot-5, 240-pound, No. 28 overall pick is a perfect red-zone target and he could help the Panthers win games immediately. For fantasy purposes, he’s merely a WR3 or a WR4 until he proves he can be more than just a TD-dependent gamble on a weekly basis.

Tavon Austin - WR, St. Louis Rams

As a rookie in 2013, Austin only caught 40 passes for 418 yards and never really found a true role. He’s admitted that the adjustment from college to the NFL took a toll on him and he continuously dropped passes early in the season. If things click in his second year, Austin has the skillset to be a star.

Justin Hunter - WR, Tennessee Titans

The second-year receiver showed signs of his high ceiling last season with a few big games down the stretch. Hunter has the tools to develop into a WR1 in his prime and should play a prominent role on young Titans’ offense.

Jordan Matthews - WR, Philadelphia Eagles

DeSean Jackson’s departure opens the door for Matthews to step up. The 2014 season could turn into a perfect storm for Matthews to succeed with Jeremy Maclin coming off a torn ACL and Riley Cooper coming off a career season.

Eric Ebron - TE, Detroit Lions

The Lions turned heads when they selected Ebron No. 10 overall in May’s Draft. It might take a season or two for the UNC product to reach his potential, but Ebron is an elite fantasy TE in the making. He’s been compared to Jimmy Graham and has the skillset to live up to his lofty expectations.

Ladarius Green - TE, San Diego Chargers

The 6-6, 237-pound Green is an obvious red-zone target and has the tools to be an impact fantasy option if he receives ample targets. Antonio Gates, the incumbent TE in San Diego, is 34 and slowed significantly down the stretch in 2013. Green caught 17 passes for 376 yards and three TDs last season, highlighted by a three-game stretch in which he caught nine balls for 206 yards and two scores.