Preseason update: Injuries, roster cuts to consider in fantasy draft prep
With the third week of the preseason behind us, we are truly closing in on the start of the 2014 NFL season. A lot has happened so far in the preseason, and if you’re drafting this week, you’ll want to make sure you’re up to date on all the latest news. Here are a few tidbits to keep in mind when you sit down around the draft table.
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Welker’s Week 1 status in doubt after concussion
Wes Welker suffered a concussion in the Broncos’ third preseason game, and that could have a ripple effect on the entire Denver passing game. The 33-year-old had two concussions late in the 2013 season, so getting one more so close to the others has to be troubling. His status for Week 1 is up in the air, though word out of Denver suggests that he will play in the season opener against the Colts.
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If Welker doesn’t suit up for the first game of the year, rookie Cody Latimer could get a chance to show what he can do much earlier than expected. The Indiana product projected as a strong late-round flier given the role he could potentially have in the Denver offense. He caught 72 passes for 1,096 yards and nine touchdowns during his final year in Bloomington, but it was believed he wouldn’t get much of a shot in the offense until later in the season. If there was one position on the roster where the Broncos could afford to bring a rookie along slowly, it was wide receiver. That may no longer be the case.
Even if Welker does play against the Colts, this concussion illustrates why the Broncos were so concerned about him staying healthy all season. Both Latimer and Andre Caldwell could have a shot early on in the season, though fantasy owners want to be targeting Latimer late in drafts. Emmanuel Sanders deserves a bump, as well, given that he’d also see more targets if Welker had to miss time. He should still be ranked behind guys like Torrey Smith, Michael Floyd and Jeremy Maclin, but ahead of Golden Tate, Terrance Williams and Brandin Cooks.
Stevan Ridley on the roster bubble?
It seems ludicrous to say so, but it sounds like Ridley may be looking for a new employer next week. ESPN Boston’s Mike Reiss made his latest 53-man Patriots roster projection on Monday, and Ridley was noticeably absent.
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Ridley landed in Bill Belichick’s doghouse last year – even though he was the team’s most accomplished runner – after dealing with a case of fumbleitis. He put the ball on the ground in the second game of the preseason, and though the Patriots recovered the fumble, Belichick could not have been pleased. That displeasure may have shown through in the third game, when he played in just 11 snaps in what amounts to a dress rehearsal for the regular season. Meanwhile, Shane Vereen played 31 snaps and James White played 15.
It still seems unlikely the Ridley gets cut, and I would still be drafting him, though at a much lower price. What this news does primarily is boost the draft stock of White and, to a lesser degree, Vereen. The pass-catching back Vereen was always going to have a big role in the New England offense as a receiver, and that role shouldn’t really change all that much regardless of Ridley’s fate. If the Patriots do cut him, though, White would be the team’s lead ball-carrier. Even just the speculation that Ridley could be cut is enough to make White a guy who should be owned in all leagues. If Ridley does get cut before your draft, you might even want to add Brandon Bolden to your radar.
2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers Vol. 2
Jeremy Hill - RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Hill is the new power back to compliment Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati. The second-round rookie should play a role similar to BenJarvus Green-Ellis last season but with significantly more upside.
LeGarrette Blount - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Blount averaged five yards per carry last season in New England and his style translates perfectly to Pittsburgh’s smash-mouth style. He’s one Le’Veon Bell injury away from being a fantasy asset.
Storm Johnson - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Toby Gerhart is a true three-down back but he had better perform in his first season as a starter, because Johnson will be waiting for his chance. The talented rookie from UCF has the tools to emerge as a capable fantasy option.
Latavius Murray - RB, Oakland Raiders
Murray is only draftable in extremely deep leagues, but he’s a talented runner who is backing up two injury-prone veterans on the depth chart. Keep an eye on him if Maurice Jones-Drew or Darren McFadden goes down with an injury.
Darren Sproles - RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Sproles has caught at least 70 balls in each of the last three seasons and moved to Chip Kelly’s pass-happy offense in Philadelphia. He’s a big-play threat who should outperform his average draft position, especially in PPR formats.
Mark Ingram - RB, New Orleans Saints
Will this be the year that the 2009 Heisman Trophy winner breaks out? It could be, with Darren Sproles out of town and Pierre Thomas falling down the depth chart. Ingram is still only 24 years old and has the tools to be a fantasy star.
Jonathan Grimes - RB, Houston Texans
Grimes is emerging as the primary backup to Arian Foster with a nice training camp. Fantasy owners know all about Foster’s injury history and his backups tend to make an impact at some point during the season.
James Starks - RB, Green Bay Packers
Starks averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season and is a must-own handcuff for all Eddie Lacy owners. Starks instantly becomes a high-end RB2 in all leagues if Lacy goes down at any point.
Andre Williams - RB, New York Giants
The rookie out of Boston College will take a backseat to Rashad Jennings early in the season but is talented enough to eventually steal the job. Either way, Williams is expected to be the goal-line back and fantasy owners should keep an eye on him.
Emmanuel Sanders - WR, Denver Broncos
Peyton Manning has a new toy and that's great news for fantasy owners. Sanders has the skillset to make a significant impact as the Broncos’ third receiver.
Cole Beasley - WR, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys should have a dominant passing game and Beasley should be a capable slot receiver. He could emerge as one of Tony Romo’s favorite targets.
Odell Beckham - WR, New York Giants
The rookie from LSU is expected to stretch the field for Eli Manning and could be a nice fantasy asset immediately. His average draft position should creep up as he proves healthy in camp.
Golden Tate - WR, Detroit Lions
Tate moves to an up-tempo offense in Detroit and gets to play opposite Calvin Johnson, which is very good news for his fantasy appeal. He should be a nice WR3 facing single coverage on a weekly basis.
Mike Evans - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The No. 7 overall pick has lofty expectations and is in a great situation to succeed. The 6’5 Evans will find plenty of single coverage playing opposite Vincent Jackson and could be the league’s top rookie for fantasy purposes.
Charles Johnson - WR, Cleveland Browns
The Grand Valley State product has been a training camp standout and could emerge as a starter in Cleveland. The Browns will be desperate for a play-making WR once Josh Gordon starts serving his suspension.
Kyle Rudolph - TE, Minnesota Vikings
Rudolph isn’t necessarily a “sleeper,” but he could easily outperform his ADP. Norv Turner turns tight ends into fantasy stars and Rudolph is primed for a career-best season.
Jordan Reed - TE, Washington Redskins
Reed showed glimpses of his potential last season, when he caught 45 balls in only nine games. The sky is the limit if Reed can stay healthy in 2014. He’s simply too talented to be overlooked.
Eli Manning - QB, New York Giants
The younger Manning gets a fresh start with new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo and he should improve upon his miserable 18/27 TD/INT ratio from 2013. You can draft him as a backup for fantasy purposes but he has the ability to sneak into the Top 12 QBs when the season concludes.
Andy Dalton - QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Dalton was quietly a fantasy monster last season, finishing with 4,293 passing yards and 33 TDs. Doubters will say Dalton is streaky, just signed a huge deal and has a new offensive coordinator, but, regardless, he is an absolute steal at his current ADP.
Josh McCown - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
McCown was an elite fantasy QB during a three-game stretch last season and parlayed the success into a starting gig in Tampa Bay. His new weapons (Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans) resemble his old weapons (Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery) in both size and ability. McCown is a sneaky option if you need a QB late in your draft.
Sam Bradford tears ACL
Bradford’s poor luck showed up again on Saturday when he tore the ACL in his left knee, the same knee in which he tore the ligament last year. He will miss the entire 2014 season, which had a bit of a make-or-break feel to it for the former No. 1 overall pick. In real life, the injury could be equally as devastating for the Rams, whose defense makes them legitimate playoff contenders. The impact will be felt in fantasy leagues, as well.
What's next for the Rams with Sam Bradford done for 2014?
The downgrade to Shaun Hill from Bradford is noticeable and will likely have a negative effect on everyone in St. Louis. Intuitively, fantasy owners may think that the injury gives Zac Stacy a boost. The logic goes that with Bradford out, the Rams will rely on Stacy and the run game more than they originally planned. However, that overlooks the fact that the offense as a whole is better with Bradford under center. Not only does Stacy not get a bump in value, he’s actually less attractive with Bradford out. I’ve been lower on him than most people all summer, but he isn’t even inside my top 20.
St. Louis’ receivers were already pretty low on draft boards. Tavon Austin is the only one with an average draft position inside the top 50 among receivers, and only he and Kenny Britt are taken with one of the first 160 picks in a typical draft. In other words, it’s not like their stock could realistically get any lower. If you were already looking at Austin or Britt with a late-round pick, the move to Hill from Bradford shouldn’t change that. The same is true for tight end Jared Cook, who has fallen out of the top 20 at his position. He should not be on your board unless you are in a very deep league.