Fantasy football Week 6 stat projections

Last week featured the mix of predictable and wildly unpredictable that we’ve come to expect from the NFL. DeMarco Murray went north of 100 yards, racking up 136 in Dallas’ win over Houston. Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdowns and led the Packers to a rout of the Vikings. Andrew Luck surpassed 300 yards, and the Colts won their third straight game. File all that under business as usual. What will happen this week? All we know for certain is that there are some events we can foresee, and others we’d never predict with all the analysis in the world. Hopefully, we can help you eliminate some of the guesswork with the SI.com stat projections for Week 6.

Last week featured the mix of predictable and wildly unpredictable that we’ve come to expect from the NFL. DeMarco Murray went north of 100 yards, racking up 136 in Dallas’ win over Houston. Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdowns and led the Packers to a rout of the Vikings. Andrew Luck surpassed 300 yards, and the Colts won their third straight game. File all that under business as usual.

• Week 6 Waiver Wire | Fact or Fiction | Time to downgrade McCoy?

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On the other side, Brian Hoyer led the Browns to the largest road comeback in NFL history, throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns as his team erased a 25-point deficit to win 29-28. The Steelers scored just 17 points in a lethargic, unimpressive win over the Jaguars. Detroit failed to protect a 14-point lead at home against the Bills, as Dan Carpenter kicked a game-winning 58-yard field goal.

What will happen this week? All we know for certain is that there are some events we can foresee, and others we’d never predict with all the analysis in the world. Hopefully, we can help you eliminate some of the guesswork with the SI.com stat projections for Week 6.

• Challenge your friends and win BIG in our weekly fantasy football game

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

QB: Blake Bortles – 244 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yards
RB: Toby Gerhart – 26 rush yards
RB: Storm Johnson – 38 rush yards
RB: Denard Robinson – 12 rush yards, 1 reception, 6 rec yards
WR: Allen Robinson – 6 receptions, 71 rec yards
WR: Allen Hurns – 4 receptions, 80 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Clay Harbor – 5 receptions, 58 rec yards
K: Josh Scobee – 1 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Jaguars – 1 INT, 30 points allowed

QB: Jake Locker – 285 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 18 rush yards
RB: Bishop Sankey – 60 rush yards, 2 receptions, 13 rec yards
RB: Shonn Greene – 22 rush yards
WR: Kendall Wright – 7 receptions, 80 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Justin Hunter – 5 receptions, 108 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Nate Washington – 3 receptions, 22 rec yards
TE: Delanie Walker – 5 receptions, 59 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Ryan Succop – 3 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Titans – 3 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 13 points allowed

This matchup sets up wonderfully for the Titans, but it all depends on Locker being out there. If he is able to give it a go after suffering a hand injury last week, expect a big day for this passing game.

• BURKE: Titans yield historic comeback at home to Browns

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB: Joe Flacco – 289 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: Justin Forsett – 78 rush yards, 4 receptions, 27 rec yards
RB: Lorenzo Taliaferro – 24 rush yards
RB: Bernard Pierce – 10 rush yards
WR: Steve Smith – 7 receptions, 96 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Torrey Smith – 4 receptions, 82 rec yards
TE: Owen Daniels – 5 receptions, 61 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Justin Tucker – 2 PAT, 4 FG
DST: Ravens – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 2 FR, 20 points allowed

QB: Mike Glennon – 249 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB: Doug Martin – 36 rush yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 14 rec yards
RB: Bobby Rainey – 40 rush yards, 1 reception, 7 rec yards
WR: Vincent Jackson – 7 receptions, 102 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Louis Murphy – 4 receptions, 38 rec yards
TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins – 5 receptions, 70 rec yards
TE: Brandon Myers – 1 reception, 8 rec yards
K: Patrick Murray – 2 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Buccaneers – 1 sack, 1 INT, 26 points allowed

Glennon has undoubtedly been an upgrade for the Tampa Bay offense, but this is still a bad matchup. The Ravens have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. On the other side, the Buccaneers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Flacco should bounce back this week.

• BANKS: Snap Judgments: Bucs should be pleased with Mike Glennon's play

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

QB: Peyton Manning – 335 pass yards, 4 TD
RB: Ronnie Hillman – 40 rush yards, 2 receptions, 11 rec yards
RB: C.J. Anderson – 20 rush yards
RB: Juwan Thompson – 10 rush yards
WR: Demaryius Thomas – 8 receptions, 130 rec yards, 2 TD
WR: Emmanuel Sanders – 6 receptions, 78 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Wes Welker – 5 receptions, 55 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Julius Thomas – 5 receptions, 70 rec yards
K: Brandon McManus – 4 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Broncos – 3 sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, 10 points allowed

QB: Geno Smith – 171 pass yards, 2 INT, 18 rush yards
RB: Chris Ivory – 75 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 21 rec yards
RB: Chris Johnson – 28 rush yards, 1 reception, 11 rec yards
WR: Eric Decker – 4 receptions, 50 rec yards
WR: Jeremy Kerley – 3 receptions, 41 rec yards
WR: David Nelson – 2 receptions, 14 rec yards
TE: Jace Amaro – 3 receptions, 30 rec yards
TE: Jeff Cumberland – 3 receptions, 23 rec yards
K: Nick Folk – 1 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Jets – 1 sack, 34 points allowed

Peyton Manning threw his 500th touchdown pass last week, then added Nos. 501, 502 and 503. He’s now just five behind Brett Favre for most all time. He could get that against the hapless Jets' pass defense on Sunday.

• KING: Week 5 puts vintage Manning and Brady on display

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

QB: Matthew Stafford – 268 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
RB: Reggie Bush – 44 rush yards, 3 receptions, 26 rec yards
RB: Joique Bell – 52 rush yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 14 rec yards
WR: Golden Tate – 6 receptions, 96 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Jeremy Ross – 4 receptions, 50 rec yards
TE: Eric Ebron – 6 receptions, 61 rec yards
K: Matt Prater – 2 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Lions – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 24 points allowed

QB: Teddy Bridgewater – 281 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 12 rush yards
RB: Matt Asiata – 33 rush yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 7 rec yards
RB: Jerick McKinnon – 12 rush yards, 4 receptions, 37 rec yards
WR: Greg Jennings – 7 receptions, 78 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Cordarrelle Patterson – 5 receptions, 75 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Jarius Wright – 4 receptions, 54 rec yards
TE: Rhett Ellison – 3 receptions, 24 rec yards
K: Blair Walsh – 3 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Vikings – 2 sacks, 2 INT, 20 points allowed

If you’re reading the tea leaves, you should expect Calvin Johnson to be out because of his ankle injury. If that’s the case, Stafford will be a risky play on Sunday. Bridgewater, however, should be back after missing last week’s game against the Packers. He elevates this entire offense and would be a low-end QB1.

• Vikings QB Bridgewater returns to practice after ankle injury

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

QB: Tom Brady – 310 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
RB: Stevan Ridley – 46 rush yards, 1 reception, 6 rec yards
RB: Shane Vereen – 24 rush yards, 5 receptions, 51 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Julian Edelman – 6 receptions, 70 rec yards
WR: Brandon LaFell – 4 receptions, 44 rec yards
WR: Aaron Dobson – 3 receptions, 35 rec yards
TE: Rob Gronkowski – 6 receptions, 90 rec yards, 2 TD
TE: Tim Wright – 2 receptions, 11 rec yards
K: Stephen Gostkowski – 3 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Patriots – 3 sacks, 2 INT, 19 points allowed

QB: Kyle Orton – 250 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
RB: Fred Jackson – 73 rush yards, 2 receptions, 15 rec yards
RB: C.J. Spiller – 35 rush yards, 4 receptions, 26 rec yards
WR: Sammy Watkins – 6 receptions, 100 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Robert Woods – 2 receptions, 17 rec yards
WR: Mike Williams – 3 receptions, 36 rec yards
TE: Scott Chandler – 3 receptions, 29 rec yards
K: Dan Carpenter – 1 PAT, 4 FG
DST: Bills – 1 sack, 1 INT, 30 points allowed

The Patriots had their best game of the season against a strong Cincinnati defense a week ago. The Bills present another challenge, but Brady and company at least look to be on the right path. Jackson is better bet than Spiller in a vacuum. The Buffalo offense ran a bit better with Orton under center, but it didn’t exactly set the world on fire, either. Watkins is a good play given how frequently he’s targeted.

• BENOIT: Bills defense faces pivotal challenge from Patriots in Week 6

Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals

QB: Cam Newton – 247 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 13 rush yards
RB: Jonathan Stewart – 52 rush yards, 2 receptions, 9 rec yards
RB: Darrin Reaves – 29 rush yards
WR: Kelvin Benjamin – 6 receptions, 92 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Jason Avant – 3 receptions, 21 rec yards
WR: Jerricho Cotchery – 4 receptions, 36 rec yards
TE: Greg Olsen – 7 receptions, 81 rec yards
K: Graham Gano – 1 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Panthers – 1 sack, 1 FR, 27 points allowed

QB: Andy Dalton – 295 pass yards, 2 TD
RB: Giovani Bernard – 82 rush yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 33 rec yards
RB: Jeremy Hill – 45 rush yards, 1 reception, 10 rec yards
WR: A.J. Green – 7 receptions, 109 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Marvin Jones – 5 receptions, 67 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Mohamed Sanu – 3 receptions, 41 rec yards
TE: Jermaine Gresham – 3 receptions, 22 rec yards
K: Mike Nugent – 3 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Bengals – 3 sacks, 1 INT, 2 FR, 16 points allowed

Newton is likely to have a much tougher time against the Bengals than he did against the Bears last week. The Panthers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and fifth-most to running backs, so this sets up nicely for Dalton and Bernard. Keep an eye on Green and Jones, who are both battling injuries.

• Charlotte, Cincinnati mayors want "Queen City" debate settled in Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

QB: Ben Roethlisberger – 288 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: Le’Veon Bell – 105 rush yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 38 rec yards, 1 TD
RB: LeGarrette Blount – 27 rush yards
WR: Antonio Brown – 7 receptions, 99 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Markus Wheaton – 5 receptions, 60 rec yards
WR: Justin Brown – 4 receptions, 39 rec yards
TE: Heath Miller – 5 receptions, 47 rec yards
K: Shaun Suisham – 3 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Steelers – 1 sack, 1 FR, 21 points allowed

QB: Brian Hoyer – 270 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB: Ben Tate – 93 rush yards, 2 TD, 3 receptions, 17 rec yards
RB: Terrance West – 19 rush yards
RB: Isaiah Crowell – 8 rush yards, 2 receptions, 14 rec yards
WR: Andrew Hawkins – 5 receptions, 64 rec yards
WR: Miles Austin – 3 receptions, 25 rec yards
WR: Taylor Gabriel – 3 receptions, 50 rec yards
TE: Jordan Cameron – 6 receptions, 84 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Billy Cundiff – 3 PAT
DST: Browns – 3 sacks, 1 INT, 24 points allowed

The Browns enter this game as slim favorites, a status they’ve definitely earned through five weeks this season. Expect the Steelers to get the ball in Bell’s hands more often after inexplicably getting him just 14 touches last week. Tate clearly owns the Cleveland backfield and is a strong RB2.

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Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins

QB: Aaron Rodgers – 310 pass yards, 3 TD
RB: Eddie Lacy – 75 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 20 rec yards
WR: Jordy Nelson – 6 receptions, 102 rec yards, 2 TD
WR: Randall Cobb – 6 receptions, 88 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Davante Adams – 5 receptions, 50 rec yards
TE: Andrew Quarless – 3 receptions, 25 rec yards
K: Mason Crosby – 4 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Packers – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 20 points allowed

QB: Ryan Tannehill – 260 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB: Lamar Miller – 80 rush yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 42 rec yards
RB: Knowshon Moreno – 57 rush yards, 2 receptions, 13 rec yards
WR: Mike Wallace – 6 receptions, 86 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Brian Hartline – 5 receptions, 57 rec yards
TE: Charles Clay – 4 receptions, 48 rec yards
K: Caleb Sturgis – 2 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Dolphins – 2 sacks, 34 points allowed

Miami certainly presents Green Bay with a tougher defensive test than it has seen the last two weeks, but Rodgers has this offense clicking. Ultimately, the Dolphins won’t slow it down. Moreno could very well return this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to slide right back into a featured role given how well Miller has played.

• Lacy, Rodgers come alive as Packers roll over Vikings on TNF

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

QB: Philip Rivers – 286 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: Branden Oliver – 87 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 23 rec yards
WR: Keenan Allen – 6 receptions, 110 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Eddie Royal – 4 receptions, 43 rec yards
WR: Malcom Floyd – 3 receptions, 60 rec yards
TE: Antonio Gates – 3 receptions, 35 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Ladarius Green – 1 reception, 12 rec yards
K: Nick Novak – 3 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Chargers – 3 sacks, 3 INT, 10 points allowed

QB: Derek Carr – 210 pass yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
RB: Darren McFadden – 44 rush yards, 3 receptions, 20 rec yards
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew – 18 rush yards, 2 receptions, 11 rec yards
WR: James Jones – 5 receptions, 73 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Kenbrell Thompkins – 4 receptions, 47 rec yards
WR: Andre Holmes – 3 receptions, 31 rec yards
TE: Mychal Rivera – 2 receptions, 13 rec yards
K: Sebastian Janikowski – 1 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Raiders – 1 sack, 1 INT, 30 points allowed

This looks like one of the biggest mismatches of the season to date, with the seemingly unstoppable Chargers visiting the doormat Raiders. Oakland has actually fared pretty well against quarterbacks, but that has a lot to do with their schedule; they’ve faced the Jets, Texans, Patriots and Dolphins thus far. Rivers should direct an effective attack.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

QB: Jay Cutler – 287 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: Matt Forte – 130 rush yards, 2 TD, 5 receptions, 51 rec yards
WR: Alshon Jeffery – 6 receptions, 110 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Brandon Marshall – 5 receptions, 60 rec yards
WR: Santonio Holmes – 3 receptions, 20 rec yards
TE: Martellus Bennett – 4 receptions, 37 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Robbie Gould – 4 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Bears – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 30 points allowed

QB: Matt Ryan – 321 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
RB: Steven Jackson – 45 rush yards, 2 receptions, 10 rec yards
RB: Jacquizz Rodgers – 12 rush yards, 2 receptions, 13 rec yards
RB: Devonta Freeman – 10 rush yards, 1 reception, 7 rec yards
RB: Antone Smith – 20 rush yards, 1 reception, 10 rec yards
WR: Julio Jones – 7 receptions, 115 rec yards, 2 TD
WR: Roddy White – 5 receptions, 92 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Devin Hester – 3 receptions, 40 rec yards
TE: Levine Toilolo – 2 receptions, 18 rec yards
K: Matt Bryant – 3 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Falcons – 1 sack, 1 INT, 31 points allowed

First to 30 could very well win this game between two strong offensive teams that don’t play much defense. The Bears have been terrible in the second half each of the last two weeks, registering more turnovers than points after halftime. Expect both offenses to put on a show, with Forte leading all running backs in fantasy points this week.

• Falcons owner gives vote of confidence to team amid struggles

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

QB: Tony Romo – 252 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
RB: DeMarco Murray – 83 rush yards, 3 receptions, 17 rec yards
WR: Dez Bryant – 6 receptions, 95 rec yards
WR: Terrance Williams – 4 receptions, 53 rec yards
TE: Jason Witten – 6 receptions, 77 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Dan Bailey – 1 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Cowboys – 1 sack, 24 points allowed

QB: Russell Wilson – 258 pass yards, 1 TD, 38 rush yards
RB: Marshawn Lynch – 112 rush yards, 2 TD, 3 receptions, 20 rec yards
WR: Percy Harvin – 5 receptions, 76 rec yards, 1 TD, 20 rush yards
WR: Doug Baldwin – 5 receptions, 62 rec yards
WR: Jermaine Kearse – 3 receptions, 33 rec yards
TE: Luke Willson – 3 receptions, 25 rec yards
K: Steven Hauschka – 3 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Seahawks – 4 sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, 16 points allowed

The Seahawks defense is an absolute monster at home. Eventually, someone is going to hold Murray under 100 yards. Smart money is on the defending Super Bowl champions doing so on Sunday. However, expect the Cowboys to keep it close.

• Harvin has three TDs called back during Seahawks' Monday night win

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals

QB: Kirk Cousins – 287 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: Alfred Morris – 93 rush yards, 1 TD, 1 reception, 7 rec yards
RB: Roy Helu – 27 rush yards, 3 receptions, 18 rec yards
WR: Pierre Garcon – 7 receptions, 94 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: DeSean Jackson – 5 receptions, 105 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Andre Roberts – 2 receptions, 15 rec yards
TE: Niles Paul – 4 receptions, 46 rec yards
K: Kai Forbath – 3 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Redskins – 3 sacks, 2 INT, 13 points allowed

QB: Logan Thomas – 208 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
RB: Andre Ellington – 47 rush yards, 2 receptions, 19 rec yards
WR: Michael Floyd – 3 receptions, 74 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Larry Fitzgerald – 5 receptions, 67 rec yards
WR: John Brown – 3 receptions, 32 rec yards
TE: John Carlson – 1 reception, 11 rec yards
K: Chandler Catanzaro – 1 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Cardinals – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 24 points allowed

The Cardinals are in serious trouble if Thomas has to start this game. They’ll hold out hope for both Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, but it looks like they’ll have to tab the rookie out of Virginia Tech as their third starting quarterback of the season. On the other side, Washington played a respectable game against Seattle last week and could take advantage of the depleted Arizona defense.

• Cardinals coach Arians: NFL should suspend players who cause injuries

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

QB: Eli Manning – 322 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
RB: Andre Williams – 88 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 16 rec yards
WR: Victor Cruz – 7 receptions, 107 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Rueben Randle – 5 receptions, 85 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. – 4 receptions, 55 rec yards
TE: Larry Donnell – 6 receptions, 62 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Josh Brown – 4 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Giants – 4 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 28 points allowed

QB: Nick Foles – 301 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
RB: LeSean McCoy – 97 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 20 rec yards
RB: Darren Sproles – 33 rush yards, 4 receptions, 35 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Jeremy Maclin – 6 receptions, 86 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Riley Cooper – 4 receptions, 50 rec yards
WR: Jordan Matthews – 4 receptions, 53 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Zach Ertz – 3 receptions, 49 rec yards
K: Cody Parkey – 4 PAT
DST: Eagles – 1 INT, 31 points allowed

Three weeks ago, the Eagles looked like the runaway favorite in the NFC East. Now the Giants and Cowboys are serious threats to their crown. Williams steps right in for the injured Rashad Jennings, and Beckham should open things up even further for Manning. Meanwhile, the Eagles are still without Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce along the offensive line, and that could continue to keep a lid on McCoy’s production.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams

QB: Colin Kaepernick – 226 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yards, 1 TD
RB: Frank Gore – 90 rush yards, 1 reception, 6 rec yards
RB: Carlos Hyde – 43 rush yards
WR: Michael Crabtree – 4 receptions, 81 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Anquan Boldin – 5 receptions, 58 rec yards
WR: Steve Johnson – 3 receptions, 37 rec yards
TE: Vernon Davis – 3 receptions, 22 rec yards
K: Phil Dawson – 2 PAT, 4 FG
DST: 49ers – 3 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 23 points allowed

QB: Austin Davis – 276 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: Zac Stacy – 38 rush yards, 2 receptions, 14 rec yards
RB: Benny Cunningham – 32 rush yards, 3 receptions, 21 rec yards
WR: Brian Quick – 5 receptions, 84 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Kenny Britt – 5 receptions, 77 rec yards
WR: Austin Pettis – 3 receptions, 31 rec yards
TE: Jared Cook – 4 receptions, 44 rec yards
K: Greg Zuerlein – 2 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Rams – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 26 points allowed

The 49ers have gotten back to their running ways in the last two weeks, scoring victories over the Eagles and Chiefs. With Stacy struggling and banged up, the Rams offense is in the seemingly capable hands of Davis. Don’t be surprised if the home team steals this one.