Fantasy football Week 12 stat projections

What surprises do the Patriots have in store for the fantasy community in Week 12? Who will be the running back who leads his owners to a big win this week? Find out that and more in the SI.com fantasy football stat projections for Week 12.

You can never really be too sure what the Patriots are going to do, other than score somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 points. If you allowed that knowledge to guide your lineup last week, you may have enjoyed one of the most unexpected individual performances of the season.

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Jonas Gray, who was on New England’s practice squad before Stevan Ridley’s season-ending knee injury, racked up 201 yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries in the Patriots’ 42-20 win over the Colts last week. He scored 44.1 fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues, so if you had the foresight to get him in your lineup, chances are you picked up a win in Week 11.

What surprises do the Patriots have in store for the fantasy community in Week 12? Who will be the running back who leads his owners to a big win this week? Find out that and more in the SI.com fantasy football stat projections for Week 12.

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

QB: Alex Smith – 242 pass yards, 1 TD, 15 rush yards
RB: Jamaal Charles – 125 rush yards, 2 TD, 4 receptions, 31 rec yards
RB: Knile Davis – 25 rush yards
WR: Dwayne Bowe – 6 receptions, 67 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: A.J. Jenkins – 4 receptions, 38 rec yards
TE: Travis Kelce – 5 receptions, 53 rec yards
K: Cairo Santos – 3 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Chiefs – 4 sacks, 3 INT, 10 points allowed

QB: Derek Carr – 255 pass yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
RB: Darren McFadden – 47 rush yards, 3 receptions, 17 rec yards
WR: James Jones – 5 receptions, 57 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Andre Holmes – 4 receptions, 52 rec yards
WR: Kenbrell Thompkins – 2 receptions, 38 rec yards
TE: Mychal Rivera – 4 receptions, 55 rec yards
K: Sebastian Janikowski – 1 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Raiders – 1 sack, 27 points allowed

One of these teams cannot stop the run, and the other excels at running the ball. What do you think is going to happen? Expect a huge game for Charles.

• BURKE: Chiefs' defense stands tall; Week 11 winners/losers

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons

QB: Brian Hoyer – 286 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB: Terrance West – 73 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 22 rec yards
RB: Isaiah Crowell – 52 rush yards, 2 receptions, 14 rec yards
WR: Josh Gordon – 5 receptions, 83 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Andrew Hawkins – 5 receptions, 72 rec yards
WR: Taylor Gabriel – 3 receptions, 40 rec yards
TE: Gary Barnidge – 3 receptions, 35 rec yards
K: Billy Cundiff – 2 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Browns – 3 sacks, 1 FR, 24 points allowed

QB: Matt Ryan – 275 pass yards, 3 TD
RB: Steven Jackson – 68 rush yards, 2 receptions, 12 rec yards
RB: Devonta Freeman – 23 rush yards
WR: Julio Jones – 6 receptions, 104 rec yards, 2 TD
WR: Roddy White – 5 receptions, 81 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Harry Douglas – 4 receptions, 48 rec yards
TE: Levine Toilolo – 2 receptions, 17 rec yards
K: Matt Bryant – 3 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Falcons – 1 sack, 1 INT, 20 points allowed

You’ve held onto Gordon this long, or recently made a trade for him. You aren’t going to put him on your bench, are you? That would be a mistake. At the same time, this is a nice matchup for the Falcons at home.

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles

QB: Zach Mettenberger – 253 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
RB: Bishop Sankey – 77 rush yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 14 rec yards
WR: Justin Hunter – 3 receptions, 68 rec yards
WR: Kendall Wright – 7 receptions, 88 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Nate Washington – 2 receptions, 21 rec yards
TE: Delanie Walker – 4 receptions, 49 rec yards
K: Ryan Succop – 2 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Titans – 3 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 30 points allowed

QB: Mark Sanchez – 279 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: LeSean McCoy – 87 rush yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 19 rec yards
RB: Darren Sproles – 16 rush yards, 4 receptions, 37 rec yards
WR: Jeremy Maclin – 6 receptions, 97 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Jordan Matthews – 4 receptions, 74 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Zach Ertz – 2 receptions, 25 rec yards
TE: Brent Celek – 2 receptions, 11 rec yards
K: Cody Parkey – 3 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Eagles – 4 sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, 17 points allowed

The Titans had their best game with Zach Mettenberger under center last Monday and get an even better matchup this week with the Eagles. Despite a terrible real-life performance, the Eagles delivered from a fantasy standpoint, as they so often do, last week.

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Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

QB: Matthew Stafford – 274 pass yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
RB: Joique Bell – 73 rush yards, 1 TD, 1 reception, 5 rec yards
RB: Reggie Bush – 32 rush yards, 4 receptions, 36 rec yards
WR: Calvin Johnson – 6 receptions, 107 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Golden Tate – 4 receptions, 78 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Eric Ebron – 3 receptions, 31 rec yards
K: Matt Prater – 3 PAT
DST: Lions – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 30 points allowed

QB: Tom Brady – 310 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
RB: Jonas Gray – 42 rush yards
RB: Shane Vereen – 18 rush yards, 5 receptions, 57 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Julian Edelman – 6 receptions, 74 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Brandon LaFell – 4 receptions, 60 rec yards
WR: Danny Amendola – 2 recpetions, 12 rec yards
TE: Rob Gronkowksi – 7 receptions, 103 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Stephen Gostkowski – 3 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Patriots – 3 sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, 21 points allowed

The Lions expect Bush back, and Gray ran for 200 yards and four touchdowns last week, but this game will likely be decided by the passing attacks. If that’s the case, I like Brady and the Patriots.

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

QB: Aaron Rodgers – 325 pass yards, 3 TD
RB: Eddie Lacy – 84 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 25 rec yards
WR: Jordy Nelson – 7 receptions, 111 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Randall Cobb – 6 receptions, 103 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Davante Adams – 3 receptions, 42 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Andrew Quarless – 3 receptions, 23 rec yards
K: Mason Crosby – 4 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Packers – 4 sacks, 2 INT, 13 points allowed

QB: Teddy Bridgewater – 228 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 13 rush yards
RB: Jerick McKinnon – 56 rush yards, 3 receptions, 22 rec yards
RB: Matt Asiata – 23 rush yards
WR: Greg Jennings – 5 receptions, 58 rec yards
WR: Cordarrelle Patterson – 3 receptions, 40 rec yards
WR: Charles Johnson – 3 receptions, 34 rec yards
TE: Kyle Rudolph – 5 receptions, 52 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Rhett Ellison – 2 receptions, 14 rec yards
K: Blair Walsh – 1 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Vikings – 2 sacks, 34 points allowed

Rodgers is too good for his own fantasy good. He has sat out all or most of three different fourth quarters this season. Don’t be surprised if that is the case again this week.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

QB: Blake Bortles – 259 pass yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
RB: Denard Robinson – 63 rush yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 11 rec yards
RB: Toby Gerhart – 22 rush yards
WR: Cecil Shorts – 6 receptions, 77 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Allen Hurns – 3 receptions, 58 rec yards
WR: Marqise Lee – 3 receptions, 25 rec yards
TE: Clay Harbor – 5 receptions, 60 rec yards
K: Josh Scobee – 2 PAT
DST: Jaguars – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 31 points allowed

QB: Andrew Luck – 333 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
RB: Trent Richardson – 85 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 19 rec yards
RB: Dan Herron – 27 rush yards
WR: T.Y. Hilton – 5 receptions, 101 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Reggie Wayne – 5 receptions, 82 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Hakeem Nicks – 4 receptions, 52 rec yards
TE: Coby Fleener – 6 receptions, 65 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Adam Vinatieri – 4 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Colts – 4 sacks, 3 INT, 14 points allowed

Rarely is a 6-4 team considered a lock for the playoffs as the Colts are right now. That has to do mostly with Luck, but it will be very interesting to see how this offense adjusts to life without Ahmad Bradshaw.

• BURKE: Sour Rankings: Castonzo's TD dance among Week 11 oddities

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

QB: Andy Dalton – 260 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: Jeremy Hill – 92 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 18 rec yards
WR: A.J. Green – 7 receptions, 110 rec yards, 2 TD
WR: Mohamed Sanu – 5 receptions, 67 rec yards
WR: Brandon Tate – 3 receptions, 27 rec yards
TE: Jermaine Gresham – 3 receptions, 34 rec yards
K: Mike Nugent – 3 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Bengals – 3 sacks, 2 INT, 20 points allowed

QB: Ryan Mallett – 240 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
RB: Arian Foster – 103 rush yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 33 rec yards
RB: Alfred Blue – 34 rush yards
WR: DeAndre Hopkins – 4 receptions, 85 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Andre Johnson – 7 receptions, 91 rec yards
TE: Garrett Graham – 2 receptions, 28 rec yards
K: Randy Bullock – 2 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Texans – 3 sacks, 1 INT, 24 points allowed

Dalton bounced back from a nightmare performance by throwing for 220 yards and three touchdowns last week. Giovani Bernard could miss another game because of his hip injury, making Hill a must-play again this week. The Texans expect to get Foster back from a groin injury this week, but they know they don’t have to rush him with Blue a more than capable backup.

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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

QB: Michael Vick – 237 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 37 rush yards
RB: Chris Ivory – 58 rush yards, 2 receptions, 11 rec yards
RB: Chris Johnson – 32 rush yards, 3 receptions, 18 rec yards
WR: Percy Harvin – 5 receptions, 68 rec yards
WR: Eric Decker – 5 receptions, 47 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Jeremy Kerley – 3 receptions, 36 rec yards
TE: Jace Amaro – 4 receptions, 42 rec yards
K: Nick Folk – 1 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Jets – 3 sacks, 1 INT, 16 points allowed

QB: Kyle Orton – 249 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB: Fred Jackson – 43 rush yards, 2 receptions, 15 rec yards
RB: Bryce Brown – 24 rush yards
RB: Anthony Dixon – 13 rush yards
WR: Sammy Watkins – 7 receptions, 105 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Robert Woods – 5 receptions, 73 rec yards
TE: Scott Chandler – 4 receptions, 47 rec yards
K: Dan Carpenter – 1 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Bills – 4 sacks, 1 INT, 2 FR, 10 points allowed

No one will fault you if you don’t watch one second of this game, even if you’re a fan of one of the teams involved. Keep an eye on Fred Jackson’s practice participation this week.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

QB: Josh McCown – 284 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: Charles Sims – 65 rush yards, 3 receptions, 20 rec yards
RB: Bobby Rainey – 28 rush yards
WR: Mike Evans – 7 receptions, 122 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Vincent Jackson – 5 receptions, 81 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Louis Murphy – 3 receptions, 30 rec yards
TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins – 2 receptions, 27 rec yards
K: Patrick Murray – 2 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Buccaneers – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 30 points allowed

QB: Jay Cutler – 315 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: Matt Forte – 112 rush yards, 1 TD, 5 receptions, 46 rec yards
WR: Brandon Marshall – 6 receptions, 88 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Alshon Jeffery – 7 receptions, 117 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Marquess Wilson – 2 receptions, 20 rec yards
TE: Martellus Bennett – 3 receptions, 40 rec yards
K: Robbie Gould – 3 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Bears – 3 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 23 points allowed

Lovie Smith and Josh McCown return to Chicago, where the Bears finally got in the win column last week. Expect there to be plenty of points on the board in this game.

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

QB: Drew Stanton – 258 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB: Andre Ellington – 50 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 19 rec yards
WR: Larry Fitzgerald – 6 receptions, 80 rec yards
WR: Michael Floyd – 4 receptions, 94 rec yards
WR: John Brown – 3 receptions, 52 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: John Carlson – 1 reception, 10 rec yards
K: Chandler Catanzaro – 2 PAT, 3 FG
DST: Cardinals – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 20 points allowed

QB: Russell Wilson – 204 pass yards, 1 INT, 31 rush yards
RB: Marshawn Lynch – 90 rush yards, 2 TD, 2 receptions, 12 rec yards
WR: Doug Baldwin – 5 receptions, 66 rec yards
WR: Jermaine Kearse – 3 receptions, 38 rec yards
WR: Paul Richardson – 3 receptions, 35 rec yards
TE: Luke Willson – 2 receptions, 17 rec yards
K: Steven Hauschka – 2 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Seahawks – 4 sacks, 1 INT, 23 points allowed

This is the reverse of the Buccaneers-Bears game. These two teams are superior to those two, but this is not going to be a very explosive game offensively. We’ve been harping on it for weeks, but fantasy owners can’t trust Wilson in matchups where his legs are unlikely to be a factor.

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St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers

QB: Shaun Hill – 250 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
RB: Tre Mason – 83 rush yards, 1 TD
RB: Benny Cunningham – 14 rush yards, 3 receptions, 17 rec yards
WR: Kenny Britt – 5 receptions, 71 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Tavon Austin – 3 receptions, 25 rec yards
WR: Stedman Bailey – 3 receptions, 19 rec yards
TE: Jared Cook – 5 receptions, 60 rec yards
TE: Lance Kendricks – 2 receptions, 20 rec yards
K: Greg Zuerlein – 2 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Rams – 4 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 19 points allowed

QB: Philip Rivers – 258 pass yards, 1 INT
RB: Ryan Mathews – 85 rush yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 13 rec yards
RB: Branden Oliver – 41 rush yards, 2 receptions, 18 rec yards
WR: Keenan Allen – 5 receptions, 76 rec yards
WR: Malcom Floyd – 3 receptions, 44 rec yards
WR: Eddie Royal – 2 receptions, 21 rec yards
TE: Antonio Gates – 6 receptions, 78 rec yards
K: Nick Novak – 1 PAT, 4 FG
DST: Chargers – 2 sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, 17 points allowed

The Rams just pulled off the biggest upset of the season and may be poised to spring another one on the Chargers. San Diego’s offense has sputtered in its last four games, though Mathews ran well in his first game back from injury last week.

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Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

QB: Ryan Tannehill – 271 pass yards, 1 TD, 38 rush yards
RB: Lamar Miller – 77 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 24 rec yards
WR: Mike Wallace – 4 receptions, 85 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Jarvis Landry – 6 receptions, 77 rec yards
WR: Brian Hartline – 3 receptions, 38 rec yards
TE: Charles Clay – 4 receptions, 45 rec yards
K: Caleb Sturgis – 2 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Dolphins – 2 sacks, 31 points allowed

QB: Peyton Manning – 295 pass yards, 3 TD
RB: C.J. Anderson – 102 rush yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 22 rec yards
WR: Demaryius Thomas – 8 receptions, 120 rec yards, 2 TD
WR: Emmanuel Sanders – 4 receptions, 61 rec yards
WR: Wes Welker – 3 receptions, 36 rec yards
TE: Julius Thomas – 4 receptions, 55 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Brandon McManus – 4 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Broncos – 3 sacks, 1 FR, 20 points allowed

The Dolphins figure to present a much greater challenge defensively to the Broncos than the Rams did last week, but something tells me Manning and company aren’t going to come up short two weeks in a row. Miller’s owners should have faith in him after seeing him run so well last week.

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Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers

QB: Robert Griffin – 255 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yards
RB: Alfred Morris – 68 rush yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 12 rec yards
RB: Roy Helu – 10 rush yards, 4 receptions, 27 rec yards
WR: DeSean Jackson – 4 receptions, 80 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Pierre Garcon – 3 receptions, 35 rec yards
WR: Andre Roberts – 3 receptions, 27 rec yards
TE: Jordan Reed – 5 receptions. 58 rec yards
K: Kai Forbath – 2 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Redskins – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 27 points allowed

QB: Colin Kaepernick – 267 pass yards, 1 TD, 35 rush yards, 1 TD
RB: Frank Gore – 89 rush yards, 1 TD
RB: Carlos Hyde – 35 rush yards, 3 receptions, 17 rec yards
WR: Anquan Boldin – 6 receptions, 87 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Michael Crabtree – 5 receptions, 72 rec yards
WR: Steve Johnson – 3 receptions, 41 rec yards
TE: Vernon Davis – 2 receptions, 22 rec yards
K: Phil Dawson – 3 PAT, 2 FG
DST: 49ers – 4 sacks, 1 INT, 2 FR, 17 points allowed

Washington has once again devolved into chaos, making Morris and Jackson the only trustworthy players on the roster. This sets up as a very nice matchup for Kaepernick and Gore, who should be able to carve up the Washington defense.

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

QB: Tony Romo – 274 pass yards, 2 TD
RB: DeMarco Murray – 135 rush yards, 2 TD, 3 receptions, 27 rec yards
WR: Dez Bryant – 7 receptions, 128 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Terrance Williams – 4 receptions, 67 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Jason Witten – 5 receptions, 51 rec yards
K: Dan Bailey – 4 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Cowboys – 4 sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, 17 points allowed

QB: Eli Manning – 280 pass yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
RB: Rashad Jennings – 63 rush yards, 4 receptions, 33 rec yards
RB: Andre Williams – 18 rush yards
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. – 6 receptions, 87 rec yards, 1 TD
WR: Rueben Randle – 4 receptions, 49 rec yards
TE: Larry Donnell – 5 receptions, 78 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Josh Brown – 2 PAT, 1 FG
DST: Giants – 34 points allowed

Romo, Murray and Bryant dominated the Giants the last time these two teams met. Manning may not throw five interceptions like he did last week, but expect the Cowboys to cruise yet again.

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Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints

QB: Joe Flacco – 277 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB: Justin Forsett – 93 rush yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 26 rec yards
WR: Steve Smith – 6 receptions, 92 rec yards
WR: Torrey Smith – 4 receptions, 72 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Owen Daniels – 5 receptions, 57 rec yards, 1 TD
K: Justin Tucker – 3 PAT, 2 FG
DST: Ravens – 3 sacks, 1 INT, 28 points allowed

QB: Drew Brees – 308 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
RB: Mark Ingram – 66 rush yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 10 rec yards
WR: Marques Colston – 6 receptions, 83 rec yards
WR: Kenny Stills – 4 receptions, 90 rec yards, 1 TD
TE: Jimmy Graham – 7 receptions, 110 rec yards, 2 TD
K: Shayne Graham – 4 PAT
DST: Saints – 2 sacks, 1 INT, 27 points allowed

The Saints have to adjust to life without Brandin Cooks, who went on injured reserve with a broken thumb. That makes Stills and Colston a whole lot more attractive for fantasy purposes. Meanwhile, Torrey Smith has averaged 10.3 fantasy points per game since Week 3, better than teammate Steve Smith’s pace for the entire season.