2020 Fantasy Baseball: Aaron Judge Player Outlook

A closer fantasy look at New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge who needs to stay healthy for a full season before he can really take the next steps to advance his game.

Chicks dig the long ball. New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge missed 62 games in 2019 and yet he remains one of the game’s most popular players. Part of his popularity comes from his power.

There isn’t a player in baseball that can swing it like Judge. There is no match for Judge’s ability to hit for power. Just take a look at how hard he hits the ball (hard-hit rate – 57.1 in 2019, second-best in baseball) when he makes contact (CTBA – .461, .441, and .435 over the past three years). He possesses an elite hit rate (1.981).

This is all not to say he is a perfect fantasy option. There is a risk and it comes with a massive strikeout rate (31.5), along with a needs-improving RBI rate (11.2 in 2019 and 13.9 in his career). Thanks to his impressive walk rate (14.3 percent), there is still some value here in runs.

Judge dominated left-handed pitching (.343, eight HRs and 19 RBI over 99 at-bats). His HR/FB rate (35.1) comes in with league-leading power, although he could afford to add more loft to his swing (fly-ball rate – 32.4 in 2019 and 43.2 in his 50-HR season in 2017).

Last season, an oblique injury cost him two months of playing time. Judge didn’t find his stride in 2019 until mid-August (.301 with 15 HRs and 23 RBI over his final 133 at-bats). There is some injury risk since he’s missed time in both of his last two seasons, and this has softened his draft day price (ADP – 46). If given 500 or more plate appearances (or the equivalent in a shortened season), you could expect a neutral average with a 110/50/110/5 skill set. To continue to improve, his next step needs to come with an increasing RBI rate and showing a better ability to make contact.

SI's senior baseball writer Tom Verducci noted we likely have already missed a good portion of Judge's prime:

This year everybody is looking at a shortened season because of the pandemic. But Judge originally fractured a rib back in September. It was diagnosed in March, and eight months later, he's having a C.T. scan on that injury this month. Judge turned 28 last month. He's older than Bryce Harper, who's played more than 1000 career games. Next year, Judge turns 29 and will have played only one season with more than 500 plate appearances.

Injuries and the pandemic have robbed Aaron Judge of what traditionally are the prime years of a ballplayers career. 

The Yankees are widely considered the favorite to not only win the AL East, but to be the team representing the American League in the World Series. Make no mistake that Judge is a big reason for such an assessment.

READ MORE: 2020 New York Yankees Team Preview