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MMA DFS: UFC 250, Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer Preview
That’s right. Fantasy players can play this week at DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. DraftKings is hosting its first-ever millionaire-maker tourney for UFC 250, where the top spot takes home a cool $1 million top prize!
The UFC heads back to Las Vegas this weekend for UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer. Nunes, the women's pound-for-pound best, looks to defend her featherweight title against former Invicta FC's champion Felicia Spencer. In about a year since joining the UFC, Spencer has established herself as a game-changer, winning twice via finish. She's making a name for herself as she took everything Cyborg Santos could throw at her, before eventually dropping a decision. Can Spencer shock the world Saturday night by taking down the champ? We will soon find out.
Co-headlining the event will be two of the bantamweight’s best, as #9 Cody Garbrandt makes his long-awaited return after a year away, against #5 ranked Raphael Assuncao. Assuncao, a perpetual contender, looks to get back on track after losing a unanimous decision to Cory Sandhagen last August. Garbrandt is heavily focused and motivated to get back to title conversations, after losing his previous three fights via KO, ending his streak of 11 straight victories to start his professional career.
The entire card will be filled with action, as the UFC continues its use of the smaller, 25' octagon at the APEX, instead of the standard 30' cage. The purpose of the smaller octagon has historically increased fight finish rates and shortened average fight times. This is due to the ability to create more action and engagement between the two fighters. Take note.
The card gets underway at 6 pm ET and is scheduled for 12 matches in total, which will air live on ESPN and work its way to Pay Per View for the main card.
UFC 250 Details
DATE: Saturday, June 6, 2020
BROADCAST: Pay Per View – PRELIMS: ESPN
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
# of MATCHES: 12
Main Card
WOMEN’S FEATHERWEIGHT TITLE, 145 LBS
(C) AMANDA NUNES 19-4 VS FELICIA SPENCER 8-1
BANTAMWEIGHT, 135 LBS
#5 RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO 27-7 VS #9 CODY GARBRANDT 11-3
BANTAMWEIGHT, 135 LBS
#2 ALJAMAIN STERLING 18-3 VS #4 CORY SANDHAGEN 12-1
WELTERWEIGHT, 170 LBS
NEIL MAGNY 22-7 VS ANTHONY ROCCO MARTIN 17-5
BANTAMWEIGHT, 135 LBS
EDDIE WINELAND 24-13-1 VS SEAN O’MALLEY 11-0
Prelims
FEATHERWEIGHT, 145 LBS
ALEX CACERES 15-12 VS CHASE HOOPER 9-0-1
MIDDLEWEIGHT, 185 LBS
#13 IAN HEINISCH 13-3 VS GERALD MEERSCHAERT 31-12
FEATHERWEIGHT, 145 LBS
#12 CODY STAMANN 18-2-1 VS BRIAN KELLEHER 21-10
MIDDLEWEIGHT, 185 LBS
CHARLES BYRD 10-6 VS MAKI PITOLO 12-5
FLYWEIGHT, 125 LBS
#4 JUSSIER FORMIGA 23-7 VS #9 ALEX PEREZ 23-5
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT, 205 LBS
ALONZO MENIFIELD 9-0 VS DEVIN CLARK 11-4
CATCHWEIGHT, 150 LBS
EVAN DUNHAM 18-8-1 VS HERBERT BURNS 10-2
MMA DFS Strategies
- Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his or her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
- Play the heavyweights. The approximant overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
- Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
- Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
- Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high percentage of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high percentage of submission losses.
Need to Know - APEX Venue
A narrative for DFS players to consider going into his card is the UFC's decision to use the smaller, 25' octagon at the APEX, instead of the standard 30' cage. The use of the smaller octagon has historically increased fight finish rates, and shortened average fight times, due to the ability to create more action and engagement between the two fighters.
UFC 250: Heat Chart
As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
Below is the card’s striking differential for each fighter. This measures their historical striking output versus absorption taken themselves. The higher the differential, the better. Hit more than you get hit is the key.
This chart simply correlates the given fighter’s takedown defense, coupled with their opponent’s historical takedown success. We are looking for pink to red in both columns.
Notable Fight Betting Odds
Fighters who have probable odds on winning their fights inside the distance
- Nunes -215
- O’Malley -160
- Menifield -145
- Burns -105
Fighters least likely to win via finish
- Spencer +670
- Wineland +490
- Dunham +475
- Formiga +450
- Magny +430
Fights with probable odds to not go to decision
- Nunes/Spencer -295
- Menifield/Clark -275
- Cacees/Hooper -210
- O’Malley/Wineland -195
- Pitolo/Byrd -180
Fighters with highest percentage of their wins via finish
- Menifield 100%
- Meerschaert 93%
- Nunes 84%
- Garbrandt 82%
- Kelleher 81%
Fighters with lowest percentage of their wins via finish
- Clark 36%
- Formiga 43%
- Stamann 44%
- Magny 46%
- Heinisch 46%
Final Recommendations
- Remember, the smaller cage is being used. Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
- Take a look at the main event obviously with the five rounds and higher probability for a finish. I like NUNES.
- The script is set up for HOOPER to win via finish here.
- Sandhagen vs. Sterling will be fireworks. This should be the real co-main and a lot of hype around this one. Expect some ownership
- Speaking of ownership, Sean O’Malley will be up there with Nunes.
- Don’t sleep on DUNHAM. He’s in play at this price.
- Two top tier fighters recommended are NUNES and MENIFIELD.
- Two value plays recommended are DUNHAM and FORMIGA.
Good luck everyone, and I hope to see some of you cashing after Saturday night!
