Nolan Arenado Fantasy Outlook: One of the Safest Bets in the Game

Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado has five straight seasons with big power stats across the board. Snag him if he is available at the end of the first round.

Yesterday, I outlined Colorado Rockies SS Trevor Story. Today, we shift our focus to the other stud bat in the Mile High City’s lineup, third baseman Nolan Arenado. With five straight years of awesome production, Arenado is one of the safest bets in fantasy baseball.

Over those previous five years, he averaged about 104 runs, 40 home runs, and 124 RBI while hitting .300. His strikeout rate a year ago (14.1) was his best since 2014 (12.4) while sustaining a solid walk rate (9.4).

Arenado was otherworldly in May (.425 with 25 runs, nine HRs, and 29 RBI over 106 at-bats) and August (.337 with 22 runs, 12 HRs, and 23 RBI over 101 at-bats) with sub-par numbers in June and July (.257 with 23 runs, seven HRs, and 31 RBI over 187 at-bats).

He somehow managed to hit the same averages against righties and lefties (.315) and played significantly better at home (.351 with 21 home runs and 70 RBI over 296 at-bats). Coors Field has that effect.

His hard-hit rate (37.4) came in 206th, which is surprising with his long history of big power numbers. Arenado ranked 119th in 2018 (40.3) and 127th in 2017. His HR/FB rate (18.2) has been above his career average (16.2) over the last two seasons while providing a fly-ball swing (44.7 percent). He had the same CTBA (.374) over the past three seasons while maintaining his high AVH (1.854) and RBI rate (20).

With an ADP of 11, Arenado has a .300/37/14/44 floor (.300/100/40/120 in 162 games) with a chance to reach high levels with better offensive play around him. A juicy baseball again in 2020 may lead to a push to 20 home runs.

READ MORE: 2020 Colorado Rockies Fantasy Team Preview