UFC 251: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal - MMA Betting & DFS Preview

A welterweight title bout between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal highlights this UFC 251 main card. MMA expert Casey Olson runs down the best bets & DFS plays.

In what seemed like an eternity, we’ve successfully survived a two-week absence from the UFC. In its absence, we got to watch Joey Chestnut do his thing, order curbside delivery fireworks, and slice some golf balls to max out that mulligan count. But just like that, we are firing up some Beach Boys “Kokomo,” and diving into the first official card from Fight Island, aka Yas Island, located in Abu Dhabi, for UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal, which will no doubt be a monster card on Saturday night.

It must be said; the UFC has done some serious work to get this thing pulled off and continuing as one of the only sports successfully keeping its schedule intact throughout the pandemic. The fighters, staff, and crew will also be doing their part going through some additional precautionary measures to get this done. Shout outs to all involved. Take a look at the journey these athletes will take to fight on Saturday night:

• First COVID-19 testing 48 hours before departure
• Departure to Abu Dhabi (flight time from Las Vegas is 19.5 hours)
• Arrive at Abu Dhabi
• Second Covid-19 testing at the airport upon arrival
• Arrival and hotel check-in
• Quarantine in hotel room until test results received
• Third Covid-19 test from the hotel
• Quarantine in hotel room until test results received
• Access to training facility granted after successful test
• Pre-event Covid-19 test
• UFC 251 event
• Final Covid-19 test before leaving Fight Island
• Depart Abu Dhabi and head home

As you can see, some considerable, detail-specific precautions are being taken to get these events off and running. Events are already locked in for July 11, July 15, July 18, and July 25 from this venue. That said, we will have a full slate on deck over the next couple of weeks, so let's get back to it.

After going 8-2 in predictions and 3-0 with wagers last card, we look to keep things rolling as we dive into this 13-fight card, featuring three title fights, with the headliner matching up the current welterweight champ, Kamaru Usman (16-1) now facing on just six days notice #3 ranked Jorge Masvidal, who steps in for Gilbert Burns, who withdrew due to testing positive for COVID. The co-main sets up a featherweight rematch, as former champion Max Holloway (21-5) looks to even the score against the man who took his belt, current champ Alexander Volkanovski (21-1). In a third title fight, bantamweight contenders will take control of the vacant belt, as Petr Yan (14-1) faces legend Jose Aldo (28-6), with the winner leaving Fight Island as the new bantamweight king.

Although the fighters will be facing off between 2 am and 8 am local time from the island, viewers stateside will be able to catch the prelims live on ESPN at 6 pm ET, followed by the PPV at 10 pm ET.

UFC 251 Details

DATE: SATURDAY 07/11/2020
BROADCAST: PAY PER VIEW – Prelims: ESPN
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
# of MATCHES: 13

MAIN CARD

WELTERWEIGHT TITLE 170LBS

C KAMARU USMAN 16-1 VS #3 JORGE MASVIDAL 35-13

FEATHERWEIGHT TITLE 145 LBS

C ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI 21-1 VS #1 MAX HOLLOWAY 21-5

BANTAMWEIGHT TITLE 135 LBS

#3 PETR YAN 14-1 VS #6 JOSE ALDO 28-6

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT 115 LBS

#1 JESSICA ANDRADE 20-7 VS #2 ROSE NAMAJUNAS 8-4

WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT 125 LBS

#14 AMANDA RIBAS 9-1 VS PAIGE VANZANT 8-4

PRELIMS

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205 LBS

#7 VOLKAN OEZDEMIR 17-4 VS JIRI PROCHAZKA 26-3-1

WELTERWEIGHT 170 LBS

ELIZEU DOS SANTOS 22-6 VS MUSLIM SALIKHOV 16-2

FEATHERWEIGHT 145 LBS

MAKWAN AMIRKHANI 15-4 VS DANNY HENRY 12-3

LIGHTWEIGHT 155 LBS

LEONARDO SANTOS 17-3-1 VS ROMAN BOGATOV 10-0

HEAVYWEIGHT 265 LBS

MARCIN TYBURA 18-6 VS MAXIM GRISHIN 30-7-2

FLYWEIGHT 145 LBS

#14 RAULIAN PAIVA 19-3 VS ZHALGAS ZHUMAGULOV 13-3

WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT 135 LBS

KAROL ROSA 12-3 VS VANESSA MELO 10-7

BANTAMWEIGHT 135 LBS

MARTIN DAY 9-3 VS DAVEY GRANT 9-4

More UFC 251 Info

• The fights will not be on the beach. No sand, no sun, and no water will be in the backdrop. It will take place in a temporary structure called the Flash Forum.
• We are back to the big octagon. The 25-ft cage at UFC Apex was fun while it lasted. But while in Abu Dhabi, the 30 ft cage is back.
• The fights will take place between 2 am and 8 am local time. To put that into perspective, when it's 8 pm in Vegas, it will be 7 am there at the event.
• The air quality during the event will be poor. We will leave it at that.
• Oddsmakers aren’t doing us any favors with this main event, but the UFC production team is. Well done.

Usman vs. Masvidal

Not even a week ago, Kamaru Usman opened up at -300 or higher across the board. But as fight week commenced, Ben Askren laying stiff on the mat just five seconds into his fight against Jorge Masvidal has been driven into our skulls, and the Usman line is now closing in on -200. Masvidal has been around for some time and is on the best run of his career. After 48 fights, he gets his first appearance in a UFC title fight, and it's been a long time coming. His opponent and the current champ, Kamaru Usman, was ready to go to war with Gilbert Burns in this spot, but with the positive COVID test, out goes Burns, and we insert Masvidal on six-days notice. Usman’s ready and Masvidal will be as well, more than people expect. 

Masvidal has in front of him the testing and travel and a weight cut of 22 lbs in less than a week. Aside from that bundle of fun, Masvidal is fight-ready. Dustin Poirier went on record and shared that Masvidal was in the gym with him the entire 5-6 weeks leading up to his match against Dan Hooker just two weeks ago. He was his main sparring partner. Masvidal even flew in All American wrestlers Bo Nickels and Cody Law to work with him even when fight negotiations with Usman fell through. He never stopped training. That aside, Usman will still be able to take down Masvidal. He’s the more superior wrestler and will leverage just that to avoid the big shots from Masvidal. 

Here's what Justin Barrasso said about Usman and the recent swap out of Burns for Masvidal: 

This is a very different fight than Usman was training for this whole time against Burns, where he was expecting to grapple. Usman has the more well-rounded skillset, but Masvidal preys upon fighters—like Usman—that have the tendency to let their emotions control their actions in the cage. If this stays a technical fight, Usman will retain. But a new opponent, particularly one Usman does not like, changes his whole approach. This will be especially compelling match-up because Usman is expected to wrestle, which is one of his opponent’s weaknesses, but Masvidal does possess strong takedown defense.

I’ve seen Masvidal struggle when on the mat numerous times in the past, and if Usman can successfully get this one down, it will make for a very frustrating night for Masvidal. There are just more ways to win for Usman here, who’s gone 11-0 in the UFC, and it's tough to not side with the guy. It could be slippery in there, which could cause this one to be on the feet more than Usman would prefer. If the public gets this line down to the -200 range, I’ll jump in.

PREDICTION: KAMARU USMAN

Holloway vs. Volkanovski

Volkanovski cruises and validates his previous win over Holloway in the co-main.

Fan-favorite Max "Blessed" Holloway looks to redeem himself after losing his strap to Saturday's opponent Alexander Volkanovski last December. Basically, a role reversal with this matchup, though the current champ looks to be even more motivated to that their first match up surprisingly. The fallout from his victory brought out some doubters, as some thought the fight was much closer than it was scored. It was a sure-win for Volkanovski as he took three rounds, with the other two even. Coming into this match, Volkanovski wants no questions to be left unanswered, while Holloway has been vocal about this just being another fight. I just don’t see the motivation I’d like to see in the former champ. It's almost like a been-there, done-that mentality, and him being content being in there. It's just a little too casual as he has a shot at reclaiming the belt from the guy who took it from him.

Additionally, the word is on the street (I mean beach) now regarding Holloway’s training camp for this event. Holloway hasn’t gone to the gym or seen his coaches during his UFC 251 training camp. Holloway had no training partners and did not spar. The team was taking precautions during the pandemic, which included a stay-at-home order in Hawaii. He's done zoom sessions until finally linking up with his team on Fight Island.

Volkanovski didn’t get the credit he deserved by beating him in their first match up. I'd suspect we see him perform to validate his spot as the true undisputed featherweight champ.

PREDICTION: ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI -200 (BET)

UFC 251 Notes & Predictions

C KAMARU USMAN 16-1 vs #3 JORGE MASVIDAL 35-13

• Masvidal is making the trip on six days' notice.
• Masvidal has been in the gym training for some time, even without a fight secured.
• Usman is on a 15-fight winning streak, including 11-0 in the UFC.
• Usman has a 3.44 TD AVG/15. The highest of any fighter on the card

PREDICTION: KAMARU USMAN

C ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI 21-1 VS #1 MAX HOLLOWAY 21-5

• Volkanovski is on an 18 fight win streak, including 8-0 in the UFC
• Holloway has gone three or more rounds in his last nine matches
• Volkanovski fights have gone over 2.5 rounds in his last seven fights
• This is the only fight on the card where both fighters average over 6.0 SLpM

PREDICTION: ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI (BET -200)

#3 PETR YAN 14-1 VS #6 JOSE ALDO 28-6

• Yan is on a 9-fight winning streak and is 6-0 since entering the UFC
• Yan will have the edge in all striking statistics coming into this matchup
• Aldo is 3-5 in his last eight fights

PREDICTION: PETR YAN (BET -210)

#1 JESSICA ANDRADE 20-7 VS #2 ROSE NAMAJUNAS 8-4

• Namajunas has been out of action for 14 months
• Namajunas will have a 3-inch reach advantage
• Andrade won their last match up via slam KO
• After contemplating retirement, interested to see where Rose is mentally
• The line is off, value spot

PREDICTION: JESSICA ANDRADE (BET +180)

#14 AMANDA RIBAS 9-1 VS PAIGE VANZANT 8-4

• VanZant makes her return after a 17-month layoff

• Ribas is making her 125lb debut
• Ribas will have a clear advantage grappling
• Ribas is the biggest favorite on the card, ranging -750 to -1000

PREDICTION: AMANDA RIBAS

#7 VOLKAN OEZDEMIR 17-4 VS JIRI PROCHAZKA 26-3-1

• Expect fireworks in this one
• Prochazka is making his UFC debut
• Prochazka has 21 wins via KO in the first round
• Oezdemir has only been KO’d once, against Daniel Cormier

PREDICTION: VOLKAN OEZDEMIR (BET UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS +125)

ELIZEU DOS SANTOS 22-6 VS MUSLIM SALIKHOV 16-2

• Before MMA, Salikhov went 185-13 in kickboxing and lost via KO in only 1 of his 199 fights
• 12 of Salikhov’s 16 wins came in round 1
• Santos will look for takedowns but will struggle against the Russian and his heavy hips

PREDICTION: MUSLIM SALIKHOV (BET -125)

MAKWAN AMIRKHANI 15-4 VS DANNY HENRY 12-3

• Henry returns after a 15-month layoff
• Amirkhani is 2-2 in his last four fights
• Amirkhani has faced higher-level opponents
• Amirkhani has won via RD 1 submission in 9 of his 15 victories

PREDICTION: MAKWAN AMIRKHANI

LEONARDO SANTOS 17-3-1 VS ROMAN BOGATOV 10-0

• Santos has had a 13-month layoff
• Bogatov is making his UFC debut
• Santos is a 4th-degree black belt
• Bogatov is an elite wrestler, with very good double legs and top control

PREDICTION: LEONARDO SANTOS

MARCIN TYBURA 18-6 VS MAXIM GRISHIN 30-7-2

• Grishin making his UFC debut on nine days notice
• Tybura is 2-4 in his last 6
• Grishin has only one loss in his last 21 matches
• Grishin’s first heavyweight fight since 2011

PREDICTION: MAXIM GRISHIN

#14 RAULIAN PAIVA 19-3 VS ZHALGAS ZHUMAGULOV 13-3

• Zumagulov is making his UFC debut.
• Paiva will be the bigger fighter, holding height and reach advantage.
• Zumagulov has gone to the decision in 8 of his last 9 matches.

PREDICTION: RAULIAN PAIVA (BET -165)

KAROL ROSA 12-3 VS VANESSA MELO 10-7

• Melo is 0-2 in the UFC
• Melo has gone to the decision in 82% of her fights
• In her UFC debut, Rosa landed 11.4 SLpM against Lara Procopio

PREDICTION: KAROL ROSA

MARTIN DAY 9-3 VS DAVEY GRANT 9-4

• Day is making his return after a 19-month layoff
• Day will have a 4.5-inch reach advantage
• Day has never been submitted, which is Grant’s strength
• Grant has won 73% of his fights via submission and lost 100% in the same fashion

PREDICTION: MARTIN DAY

UFC 251 Bet Summary

ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI -200
PETR YAN -210
JESSICA ANDRADE +180
MUSLIM SALIKHOV -125
RAULIAN PAIVA -165
PROCHAZKA/OEZDEMIR UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS +125

Last event prediction recap: 8-2
Fight card predictions overall: 195-105-6 (65%)
Targeted matchups (wagers): 71-29-2 (71%) Avg. odds -107

UFC 251 DFS Plays & DFS Strategies

• Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
• Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
• Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
• Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
• Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high percentage of submission victories matched with Fighter B, with a high percentage of submission losses.

As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC 251. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.

Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.

UFC 251 Final Recommendations

• Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)

• Take a look at the three title fights with the five rounds to work. I could see some stack opportunities on this card. Good strategy in some cash games.

• Fights projected to not go the distance include: (my suggestion in all caps)

• Prochazka/OEZDEMIR -210
• Henry/AMIRKHANI -175
• YAN/Aldo -150
• Dos Santos/SALIKOV -135
• Tybura/GRISHIN -135

• Top Tier fighters to build around include Usman, Volkanovski, Yan

• Mid-tier fighter considerations are Amirkhani and Oezdemir

• Live Dogs are Andrade, Salikhov, and Grishin

• Expect Masvidal and Aldo to be popular at these prices.