2020 New York Jets Fantasy Team Preview: Sam Darnold Breakout Looks Unlikely

SI Fantasy's Team Preview series from high-stakes legend Shawn Childs aims to break down the New York Jets to evaluate the offense, defense, coaches and everyone in between with a fantasy-slanted analysis.

Shawn Childs | Jul 17, 2020

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New York Jets

Coaching Staff

Adam Gase led the New York Jets to their ninth straight season without a playoff berth. New York finished with a 7-9 in 2019, which was their highest win total since 2015 (10-6). Gase has a 30-34 record in his four years as a head coach for the Dolphins and the Jets with one playoff appearance. He has 15 seasons of NFL experience, with all of his coaching coming on the offensive side of the ball.

Dowell Loggains returns as the offensive coordinator, which is the same position he held over the previous four seasons in Chicago, Miami, and New York. Last year the Jets fell to 32nd in the NFL in offensive yards, which was their third straight season of decline (26th in 2016, 28th in 2017, and 29th in 2018). New York scored only 276 points (31st), which was 57 fewer than the previous season. Loggains won’t survive another season if the Jets don’t improve by a wide margin in 2020.

The Jets brought in Gregg Williams to run the defense after spending 2018 as the Browns defensive coordinator and interim head coach. Williams has been in charge of an NFL defense for 19 seasons. Gregg went 22-34 over four different years as a head coach. In 2019, the Jets improved to seventh in the league in yards allowed (25th in 2018) while shaving 82 points off the scoreboard (16th in points allowed – 359).

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold (RANK - ADP)

2020 was a rough year for Darnold and the Jets’ offense. After a short Week 1 (175/1), he missed three games with a battle with mononucleosis. Darnold finished with one impact game (293/4) while posting 32 or under passing attempts in eight contests. At this point in his career, Darnold lacks the star power to be a top tier QB in the fantasy market. The Jets struggled to run the ball last year with weakness at the TE position (44/446/6 on 57 targets).

New York added WR Denzel Mims with the 27th pick in the second round in 2020, which gives the Jets a deep threat with scoring ability. He has volume pass-catcher in WR Jamison Crowder, and the combination of WR Breshad Perriman and TE Chris Herndon should add more length to the passing options in 2020.

Darnold has the talent to be a league-average QB (4,000 yards and 24 TDs), but this offense has a lot to prove this year. In the first run of the projections, I have Darnold passing for 3,691 yards with 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

James Morgan

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Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell (RANK - ADP)

The quest for a payday in the NFL led to Bell getting $27 million in guaranteed money from the Jets, but he had to be clicking his heels during the year while saying, “there’s no place like Pittsburgh.” He finished the year with a measly 3.2 yards per rush and regression in his yards per catch (7.0). New York gave him 311 touches, leading to 1,250 combined yards or a 36 percent regression in yards (1,946) from 2019. Bell played through shoulder, knee, and ankle issues while missing one game due to an illness.

Bell gained over 2,100 yards in 2014 with 83 catches and 11 TDs, almost 1,900 yards in 2016 with 75 catches, and nine TDs, and over 1,900 yards in 2017 with 85 catches and 11 TDs. Over his six years in the NFL, he averaged 24,05 touches per game.

Tough to get excited here, but Bell will out touch many backs drafted higher than him in 2020. Don’t dismiss as his resume and opportunity give him a chance to rebound with better offensive play. I’m bullish on him this year (1,435 combined yards with ten TDs and 63 catches). Buy the expected touches while knowing he has a chance at offering more upside.

Frank Gore, La’Mical Perine & Josh Adams

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Wide Receivers

Jamison Crowder (RANK - ADP)

The Jets gave Crowder the most targets (122) of his career, which helped him set a career-high in catches (78). He finished 26th in WR scoring (197.7) in PPR leagues despite not gaining over 100 yards receiving in any game. His season started with massive targets (17) and a great showing (14/99) in Week 1. Crowder played well over a three-game stretch midseason (8/83/1, 5/81/1, 5/76/1) while offering one other impact showing (6/90/2). His downside showed in eight additional weeks when he combined for only 22 catches for 180 yards and no TDs on 44 targets. Inconsistent WR3 with more competition for targets in 2020 with WR Breshad Perriman and rookie WR Denzel Mims added to the roster.

More steady than explosive with any growth being directly tied to the Jets improving as a passing team.

Denzel Mims & Breshad Perriman

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Tight Ends

Chris Herndon (RANK - ADP)

Herndon drew some attention in the 2019 early fantasy draft season as a possible back-end TE1. He showed some upside in a few games (4/42/1, 4/62, 7/57, and 6/82/1) over the final 11 weeks in 2018, but a four-game suspension paired with a hamstring issue, and a broken rib led to a lost 2019 season. Last year the Jets ranked near the bottom of the league in TE production (44/467/6). His replacement Ryan Griffin did flash in two games (4/66/2 and 5/109/1). Possible playable value in four to five games, but Herndon needs Darnold to play better this season.

Defense

New York finished 2nd defending the run (1,391) with 12 TDs and only eight runs gaining over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 3.3 yards per carry. Their pass defense ranked 17th (3,779 yards) while allowing 25 TDs and picking up 12 Ints. They finished with 35 sacks.

In the premium outlook, on defense you'll find write-ups for DT Steve McLendon, DE Quinnen Williams, DE Henry Anderson, LB C.J. Mosley, LB Avery Williamson, LB Jordan Jenkins, LB Jabari Zuniga, CB Pierre Desir, S Jamal Adams & S Marcus Maye

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Team Defense

Overall, this defense has three possibly four talented players that project upside. They should have front runner value against the run, but their cornerbacks are going to have issues covering wide receivers in a top offense. More a second fantasy defense with matchup value.

Free Agency, Draft, Offensive Line, Offensive Schedule & Defensive Schedule

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Published Jul 17, 2020

SHAWN CHILDS