2020 Fantasy Baseball: ADP Report – Starting Pitchers & Closers

In this fantasy baseball ADP report for starting pitchers and closers, SI Fantasy high stakes insider Shawn Childs gives a final look at the average draft position movement.

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With the baseball season only being 60 games, many talented arms that looked to be on inning limits can now close the gap on the top pitchers in baseball in the fantasy market.

Here’s a look at the top 12 starters ranked by SIscore in 2019:

Both Justin Verlander (+16.07) and Gerrit Cole (+15.25) created massive edges by SIscore. The average of the top 12 starting pitchers in 2019 had 15 wins, 238 strikeouts, a 2.865 ERA, and 0.991 WHIP.

Here are the projections (7/18) for the top 12 starters at Sports Illustrated ranked by SIscore:

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The stats highlighted by the yellow line show the average projections for the top 12 projected starting pitchers in 2020 (a pitcher needs to pitch 77.5 innings with four seven wins, 2.79 ERA, 1.005 WHIP, and 98 strikeouts).

Here’s a look how they rank by ADP in five NFBC Main Event drafts in July: 

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Gerrit Cole looks to be in a class by himself. He pitches for a team that will score plenty of runs with strength in their bullpen. Cole finished last year with elite value thanks to short pitch counts in many innings while dominating in strikeouts. It will be challenging to land him after the first six picks in any draft in July.

The only black mark on Jacob deGrom’s resume is the lack of wins in 2017 (10) and 2018 (11). His arm remains a significant edge while pushing his way to the middle of the first round in 2020. I expect him to be more productive in wins this year.

The go-to guy for fantasy owners as the third starting pitcher off the board over the last week was Walker Buehler. He locked and loaded to make a big step forward in 2020 while expected to handle a full season of starts. I can’t give him the “stud tag” until he earns it, even if he looks the part. 

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Closers ADP Report

The most volatile position in baseball is closer. There is some stability at the top end of the reliever inventory. Saves are trending down as fantasy owners wait for the next group of developing arms to blossom into ninth inning studs.

As the regular season approaches, more information emerges about bullpen roles allowing fantasy owners to make better-educated bets on which players they trust the most to keep their closing jobs.

The average top 12 closer last year had four wins, a 2.38 ERS, a 0.976 WHIP, 31 saves, and 97 strikeouts over 66.5 innings.

Here are the projections (7/18) for the top 12 closers at Sports Illustrated ranked by SIscore:

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The stats highlighted by the yellow line show the average projections for the top projected closers in 2020 (a reliever needs to pitch 25.2 innings with two wins, 2.65 ERA, 0.978 WHIP, 12 saves, and 36 strikeouts to be considered the league average).

Here’s a look how they rank by ADP in early March:

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Josh Hader is the best option at closer due to his ability to pitch multiple innings while offering impact strikeouts for a reliever. Last year he struggled with home runs at times. Must own if possible, but his price point (ADP – 48) is shooting up draft boards in July.

Last year Kirby Yates emerged as an elite closing option thanks to the development of his split-finger fastball. His command is now elite while looking poised to deliver 40-plus saves with help in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.

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