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NFL DFS Week 12: Quarterbacks Report - Patrick Mahomes Will Need to Air it Out
Week 12 NFL DFS Reports
- QUARTERBACKS
- RUNNING BACKS
- WIDE RECEIVERS
- TIGHT ENDS
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,100)
For the first time all year, Murray scored under 25.00 fantasy points in Week 11 (22.95) in a favorable matchup against Seattle. His short output was tied to a season-low in rushing production (2/15). He came out of the game with a shoulder injury that looks to be manageable for this week’s game. Murray continues to lead the quarterback position in scoring (32.01 FPPG) with three impact games (36.00, 41.70, and 41.75 fantasy points) for his higher salary level. The Patriots fell to 11th in quarterback defense (20.74 FPPG) after having no answer for Deshaun Watson (380 combined yards with three touchdowns). Their other failure came in Week 2 (SEA – 327 combined yards with five touchdowns). New England allows 8.7 yards per pass attempt, which is a sign of weakness in pass coverage. High floor player, but this game may feature a high number of runs speeding up the game clock.
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,000/FD – $9,000)
Mahomes moved within 29.00 fantasy points of the top-scoring spot at quarterback after Week 11 (26.00 fantasy points). He attempted over 41 passes in three straight games (42, 45, and 45) with four impact scores (43.85, 34.10, 40.80, and 35.20 fantasy points), with the last three coming at home. Even with success, he posted two passing touchdowns or fewer in six of his 10 starts. Tampa slipped to 12th in quarterback defense (21.23 FPPG), fading in two (37.60 and 28.80) of their three previous games. The Bucs hold passers to 7.0 yards per pass attempt, but they did give up 14 touchdowns to quarterbacks over the past five contests. Tampa plays well against the run, which means Mahomes will need to earn his keep in this matchup with his right arm.
Josh Allen, SEA (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,600)
The Bills scored 74 points in their last two matchups, highlighted by nine touchdowns against two top teams (SEA and ARI). Allen regained some momentum over this stretch (852 combined yards with seven touchdowns, pushing him to fourth in quarterback scoring (28.28 FPPG). He scored over 32.00 fantasy points in half of his 10 games. The Chargers held quarterbacks to fewer than 18.00 fantasy points in three straight contests, lifting them to 25th in quarterback defense (23.51). Los Angeles struggled in three matchups (KC – 356 combined yards and two touchdowns, TB – 369/5, and NO – 339/2). The Chargers hold receivers to 6.8 yards per pass attempt, which has been helped by a favorable schedule over the past five weeks (JAC, DEN, LV, MIA, and NYJ). Allen will need to run the ball well in this game to deliver a viable number in fantasy scoring.
Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $7,200/FD – $8,400)
Herbert averaged 3.1 touchdowns and 316 combined yards over his previous seven starts with three impact games (30.00, 41.95, and 31.40 fantasy points). Over his last five matchups, he averaged almost 42 passes per game with strength in his completion rate (67.5). Buffalo ranks 28th defending quarterbacks (24.12) with failure in four (31.45, 31.95, 30.00, and 33.35 fantasy points) of their previous five contests. The Bills have significant issues with quarterbacks in the run game (46/240/6). This matchup suggests playable value, and Buffalo will also score. The Bills did pick up 16 sacks over their past four matchups—a possible step back in production even with a matchup that points to upside.
Tom Brady, TB (DK – $6,600/FD – $9,000)
In two of his previous three games, Brady struggled to make plays, leading two poor showings at home (209/0 and 216/2). In these matchups, he tossed five interceptions while gaining only 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Despite frustration with Brady, he is the 8th highest scoring quarterback (23.36 FPPG) with three impact games (369/5, 369/5, and 341/3). In 2019, Brady came up short against the Chiefs (169/1). Kansas City lost some momentum defending quarterbacks over the previous two games (357/3 and 281/3), pushing them down to ninth defending quarterbacks (20.62 FPPG). The Chiefs give up only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Brady should have a bounce-back game, which would be helped by a better rushing offense by the Bucs.
Cam Newton, NE (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,700)
Over nine starts, Newton only has four passing touchdowns. His value in the run game (83/341/9) helps his floor, but he has six showings with fewer than 200 yards passing. Newton only has one playable game (39.55 FPPG) despite a high completion rate (68.1) and success in his yards per pass attempt (7.7). Arizona ranks 27th vs. the quarterback position (23.67 FPPG). The Cardinals have risk against running quarterbacks (40/204/1), and they’ve allowed 10 passing touchdowns over their past four games. Three teams (CAR – 32.00, SEA – 36.80, and BUF – 32.20 fantasy points) delivered impact games. Without success at wide receiver, Newton can’t deliver an impact game.
Teddy Bridgewater, CAR (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,000)
Bridgewater came out of Week 10 with a knee issue, which ended up costing him a start. The Panthers hope to have him back on Sunday. Over his last two starts, he picked up three touchdowns in each game thanks to a pair of rushing scores. His highlight game came in Week 9 (329/3) vs. the Chiefs. Bridgewater doesn’t have a week with more than two passing touchdowns. The Vikings inched up to 21st defending quarterbacks (22.65 FPPG), with their biggest failure coming in Week 1 (ATL – 364/4) and Week 6 (379/4). I need more info on Bridgewater's health while owning the wide receiver talent to surprise.
Taysom Hill, NO (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,300)
Hill excelled in all areas in his first NFL start. He ended up being an excellent value play at DraftKings while saving his day with his success on the ground (10/51/2). The best part about his game was the unlocking of Michael Thomas (9/104). The Saints tend to play better at home, so Hill is far from a lock on the road. Denver is about league average vs. quarterbacks (21.52 FPPG), with their best success coming over the past two weeks (8.70 and 13.60 fantasy points). Over their first seven games, the Broncos gave up between 21.85 and 26.85 fantasy points) to each quarterback. Still in play, thanks to his ability to run.
Philip Rivers, IND (DK – $6,100/FD – $6,800)
Over the last five weeks, Rivers tossed three touchdowns in three different contests while improving his passing yards to 291 per game. His only playable game (29.55 fantasy points) came in Week 6 vs. the Bengals. Michael Pittman flashed over the past two games (7/122 and 3/61/3), but T.Y. Hilton remains a lost soul with no touchdowns or impact games. Two weeks ago, Rivers passed for 308 yards with a touchdown against the Titans. Tennessee sits 26th against quarterbacks (23.52 FPPG). Their only disaster showing came in Week 6 (HOU – 361/4). An improving offense, with enough depth at receiver to surprise in the passing game.
Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,100)
In his last four home starts, Cousins tossed three touchdowns in each game while averaging 282 passing yards. On the year, 14 of his 20 touchdowns came in Minnesota with an impressive 10.1 yards per pass attempt. Adam Thielen landed on the Covid list this week, which may lead to him sitting out on Sunday. Carolina has the 13th best defense vs. quarterbacks (21.24 FPPG), with fade coming in Week 7 (28.15), Week 9 (35.20), and Week 10 (35.25 fantasy points). Tempting if Thielen plays with his downside coming from Dalvin Cook stealing the show.
Jared Goff, LAR (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,000)
The Rams' passing game showed growth over their past three games (355/1, 302/0, and 376/3). Goff posted his best game in Week 3 (31.45 fantasy points), followed by his success last week (28.80). His completion rate (67.7) is at career-high levels, but Goff has over two touchdowns in just two contests. In Week 6, he struggled to make plays vs. the 49ers (198/2 – 50.0 percent completion rate). San Francisco is 15th in quarterback defense (21.46 FPPG). Their pass defense had no answer for Russell Wilson (284/4) and Aaron Rodgers (311/4) in Week 9 and 10. Los Angeles will move the ball well via the pass in most weeks, but they will also score on the ground in close. Only a coin toss.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,800)
The passing excitement for Tagovailoa hasn’t been high over his first four NFL starts (593 yards with six touchdowns). On the positive side, he has yet to throw an interception. Miami gave him the hook in the second half against the Dolphins. New York allows the fourth-most fantasy points (25.64) to quarterbacks with failure in four games (33.30, 31.10, 41.65, and 31.40 fantasy points). A lot to prove while possibly being at risk again if the Dolphins fall behind early.
Matt Ryan, ATL (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,600)
The Falcons gave up eight sacks last week, which led to an empty game (232/0) by Ryan. Over the previous eight games, he has six contests with one touchdown or fewer. Ryan played well in three games (273/4, 371/4, and 284/3). This week he could be without Julio Jones, which would be a significant strike to his playability. Las Vegas ranks 24th in quarterback defense (23.51 FPPG). Five opponents passed for over 300 yards, with the Chiefs (355/3) and Bucs (370/4) having the most success. A possible high scoring game keeps Ryan a viable option.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,500)
The last sighting of Tannehill on the fantasy map at DraftKings came in Week 6 (366/4). Over his past five games, he averaged only 203 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns while facing four good defenses (PIT, CHI, IND, and BAL). The Colts held him to only 147 yards and one touchdown in Week 10. Indy continues to have a top defense vs. quarterbacks (18.02 FPPG – 3rd). Their worst showing came in Week 8 (336/3). Only a contrarian play.
Derek Carr, LV (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,100)
Carr played better in Week 11 (275/3), which came after three short outings (111/1, 165/2, and 154/0) when he averaged only 24 passes per game. His top performance came in Kansas City (347/3). He has one other showing with over 300 yards passing and two games with three touchdowns. The Falcons remain last in the NFL vs. quarterbacks (29.94 FPPG), with six teams scoring over 30.00 fantasy points. Even with downside risk, Atlanta gave up only four passing touchdowns over their previous four games. Right king of swing in the daily space.
Daniel Jones, NYG (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,200)
The passing game for the Giants is well below expected value coming into 2020. Jones averaged 19.00 fantasy points over his previous four starts, but he failed to produce more than 25.00 fantasy points in any week this year. His completion rate (63.5) is slightly higher than his rookie season (61.9) while struggling to produce passing touchdowns (8) and make big plays (6.4 yards per pass attempt). Jones does help his floor with his ability to run (49/384/1). The Bengals showed more risk defending quarterbacks over the past five games (29.55, 33.85, and 32.65 fantasy points), leading to a drop to 20th in quarterback defense (22.59 FPPG). Jones only needs 22.00 fantasy points to fill his salary bucket. Keep in mind that the Giants played nine of their 10 games vs. teams ranked in the top 15 in quarterback defense.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,900)
The Browns enter Week 11 with a 7-3 record, which puts them on a pace to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Despite success in the win column, Cleveland has been outscored by 23 points while owning a favorable schedule on the season at home. The weather has been a factor in their last three games, which all came at home. Mayfield failed to deliver a touchdown over this span while averaging only 22.3 passes per game. On the year, he has one game of value (297/5). Mayfield ranks 26th in quarterback scoring (15.21 FPPG) with eight games with fewer than 225 yards passing. The Jaguars gave up a minimum of three touchdowns in each of their nine straight losses with alternating risk vs. the run and pass. Jacksonville allowed the third-most fantasy points (26.07) to quarterbacks, with four opponents scoring over 29.00 fantasy points. Mayfield doesn’t excite, but the Browns lost their top cornerback (Denzel Ward), and I expect the Jaguars to make another switch at quarterback in this game, inviting a bump in scoring. There is the potential of a low-value stack here.
Nick Mullens, SF (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,600)
Over his last five games, which cover four starts, Mullens only has six touchdowns with five interceptions while averaging 264 passing yards per game. Despite his shortfall, his completion rate (66.9) and yards per pass attempt (8.2) grade well. Mullens has four completions over 20 yards in all four of his starts. The Rams have the second-best defense against quarterbacks (17.59 FPPG), with six of their previous seven opponents scoring fewer than 17.00 fantasy points. Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert may play this week, giving the 49ers more firepower on offense. Not an explosive matchup.
Drew Lock, DEN (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,700)
Lock played through a rib injury in Week 11, which led to another empty game (270/0). Since returning from his shoulder issue (missed two games), he tossed 11 interceptions with weakness in his completion rate (54.8), yards per pass attempts (6.7), and passing touchdowns (6). His top game (360/3) came against the worst quarterback defense (Atlanta). The Saints played well vs. the run, which will force the Broncos to the air if they are competitive on the scoreboard. New Orleans ranks 10th in quarterback defense (20.74 FPPG) while improving over their previous five games (21.70, 20.90, 7.45, 14.65, and 9.60 fantasy points). Fade for me.
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