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Fantasy Football Week 12 Reaction and Week 13 Lookahead - Mahomes Continues NFL MVP March

Time to dissect the biggest Week 12 fantasy storylines, beasts and busts, and a look at the final week of the fantasy football regular season.

Roy Larking

Patrick Mahomes – Posts Second Highest Career Passing Yards

Putting on an aerial show, Kansas City QB Mahomes completed 37-of-49 passes for 462 yards and three touchdowns. That’s the second most passing yards of his career behind the 478 yards he posted during Week 11 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs moved to 10-1 with a 27-24 win over Tampa Bay.

Bettors looking to wager on Mahomes, as the NFL MVP, should move quickly as his moneyline has shrunk to (-278) at DraftKings. When we looked at the odds, prior to Week 10, Mahomes (+200) was trailing MVP favorite Russell Wilson (+125). Aaron Rodgers is now second chalk with (+400) odds.

Deshaun Watson – Torches Detroit on Thanksgiving Thursday

Continuing a torrid pace, Watson posted a season high 36.30 fantasy points during the Texans 41-25 blowout win over the Lions. He completed 17-of-25 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns. Watson has posted at least 27 fantasy points in six of his last seven starts and hasn’t thrown an INT since Week 5.

While he remains a must start, Watson faces tough tests over the next three weeks. The Texans play the Colts at home, the Bears on the road and the Colts again in Indianapolis. During the final week of the fantasy playoffs, Houston hosts Cincinnati who have allowed 22 touchdown passes this season.

Aaron Rodgers – Surpasses 50,000 Career Passing Yards

Rebounding from a tough Week 11 loss to the Colts, Green Bay crushed Chicago 41-25 during the SNF prime time game. Rodgers completed 21-of-29 passes for 211 yards and four touchdowns. His fourth score of the game, a 36-yard TD pass to TE Robert Tonyan, put him over 50,000 career passing yards.

Rodgers now has 50,046 passing yards and trails John Elway who sits 10th with 51,475 yards. Green Bay (8-3) is battling New Orleans (9-2) for the top seed in NFC and they host Philadelphia in Week 13. Once fantasy playoffs begin, Rodgers has prime matchups against Detroit, Carolina and Tennessee.

Josh Allen – Disappointing Results in Anticipated Shootout

In what was forecast as a shootout, Buffalo defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 27-17 at home on Sunday. Allen completed 18-of-24 pass attempts for 157 yards with one touchdown; one interception and one fumble lost. He added 32 rushing yards and one score to finish with 20.50 fantasy points.

It’s a disappointing total after Allen posted 40.15 and 32.20 points prior to the Bills’ Week 11 bye. Buffalo is on the road in Week 13 against San Francisco who held LA Rams QB Jared Goff to 198/0/2 line on Sunday. The venue is still to be determined due a ban on contact sports in Santa Clara.

Mitchell Trubisky – Struggles in Return as the Bears Starter

Benched since Week 3, Trubisky replaced Nick Foles who was inactive due to a hip injury. He completed 26-of-46 pass attempts for 242 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Green Bay scored after both picks and he also lost a fumble that the Packers returned for a 14-yard score.

Since a 5-1 start to the season, Chicago (5-6) has lost five straight and trail Arizona by one game for the final NFC Wild Card berth. Despite a temping Week 13 matchup, against the Lions porous pass defense, Trubisky should not be considered as a viable starting option in any fantasy format.

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Derrick Henry – Destroys Tough Indianapolis Run Defense

Indianapolis has allowed three running backs to gain 100 plus yards over the last 46 games. Henry has done the damage each time. Virtually unstoppable, Henry racked up 178 yards and three scores during the Titans 45-26 thrashing of the Colts. He now has 414 rushing yards over his last three games.

Tennessee (8-4) took a one-game lead on Indianapolis (7-3) in AFC South playoff race. The Titans host Cleveland in Week 13. The Browns allowed Jaguars RB James Robinson 128 yards and one score on Sunday. That’s followed by favorable matchups in Jacksonville and at home against Detroit.

Antonio Gibson – Enjoys Thanksgiving Feast in Dallas

Firmly entrenched as the lead running back in Washington, Gibson posted 115 rushing yards and three touchdowns during a 41-16 romp over Dallas. He added five catches for 21 yards and finished with a season-high 36.60 fantasy points. His previous high was 22.80 points in Week 4 against Baltimore.

With the playoffs approaching, fantasy owners should temper their expectations as Gibson has a tough road ahead. Washington is on the road for their next two games, against Pittsburgh and San Francisco, before returning home to face Seattle. Those three teams are all ranked as top ten rushing defenses.

Nick Chubb – Posts Season High Fantasy Points

Chubb had 19 carries for 144 yards and one touchdown in the Browns 27-25 Week 12 win on the road in Jacksonville. He added three receptions for 32 yards and finished with a season high 26.60 fantasy points. Cleveland (8-3) currently holds the first Wild Card playoff berth in the AFC.

Posting a third straight 100-yard rushing game, this contest was different for Chubb. In the two previous games, Chubb needed runs of 54 and 59 yards to eclipse the century mark. Against the Jaguars his longest run was 29 yards. Chubb is a mid-range RB1 going forward and he gets the Jets in Week 16.

Latavius Murray – Breaks Out to Lead Saints Backfield

During an all-around strange game in Denver, Murray led the Saints with 19 rushing attempts for 124 yards and two touchdowns. Murray is the first running back to exceed 120 rushing yards against the Broncos this season. He scored on a 36-yard run in the third quarter and an 8-yard run in the fourth frame.

Murray posted a season high 25.60 fantasy points and now has 173 rushing yards over two games since Taysom Hill took over for Drew Brees. Alvin Kamara took a backseat for a second straight week as he posted 54 yards and no scores on 11 carries. Hill also scored two rushing touchdowns for New Orleans.

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Tyreek Hill – Shreds the Tampa Bay Pass Defense

Posting career high numbers across the board, Hill caught 13-of-15 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs' victory over the Buccaneers. That includes 203 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter. It was a happy Thanksgiving for fantasy owners as Hill finished with 57.90 points.

Seven other Kansas City players hauled in 24 receptions for just 193 combined yards. With 699 yards and six touchdowns over his last three games - Hill now leads the NFL with 1,021 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is second overall with 978 receiving yards.

Will Fuller V – Lights up the Lions on Thanksgiving Day

Fantasy players, who stacked Fuller and Watson in DraftKings DFS contests, were strong out of the gate on Thursday. Fuller hauled in a season high 171 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He now has career-highs in receiving yards (879) and touchdowns (8) with five games still to be played.

Jarvis Landry – Records Season High Fantasy Points

Players posting season-high fantasy numbers was a theme in Week 12. Landry got in on the action has he caught 8-of-11 passes for 143 yards and one TD. He finished with 28.30 fantasy points and has a favorable matchup in Week 13 when Cleveland visits Tennessee in what should be a high-scoring game.

Justin Jefferson – Leads Minnesota With Thielen Sidelined

With Adam Thielen sidelined, due to COVID-19 protocol, Jefferson caught 7-of-13 targets for 70 yards and two scores. He is the Vikings leading receiver with total 918 yards. Despite playing in the run-heavy Minnesota offense, Jefferson is making a strong case for Rookie of the Year consideration.

A.J. Brown – Scores Onside Kick Return Touchdown

Posting 25.80 fantasy points, Brown caught four passes for 98 yards and one receiving touchdown. He capped his day with 42-yard score when Indianapolis attempted an onside kick late in the game. Brown’s explosive playmaking ability makes him a high end WR2 in Week 13 against Cleveland.

Deebo Samuel – Strong in Return for San Francisco

Sidelined since Week 8, Samuel returned to action and caught 11-of-13 pass targets for 133 yards. He was the primary focus of QB Nick Mullens as seven other receivers had 22 combined targets and 119 yards. Samuel should be a big part of the 49ers offense when San Francisco plays Buffalo in Week 13.

Evan Engram – Leads All New York Giants Receivers

Posting a season high 18.90 fantasy points, Engram caught 6-of-9 targets for 129 yards during the Giants 19-17 win against Cincinnati. He now has at least nine targets in four of the last five games The Giants visit Seattle in Week 13 but Engram may lose value if QB Daniel Jones sits out with a hamstring injury.

Robert Tonyan – Second Straight Game With Double Digit Points

A breakout season continues for Tonyan as he caught all five of his targets for 67 yards and one TD against Chicago. Somewhat surprising, he led all Green Bay receivers as Davante Adams was second with 61 yards and one score. He should be considered as a low-end TE1 over the Packers next four games.

Rob Gronkowski – Leads All Tampa Bay Receivers

Hauling in 6-of-7 targets, Gronkowski had 106 receiving yards and 16.60 fantasy points in the Buccaneers loss to the Chiefs. The seven targets matched a season high and a 48-yard reception accounted for the bulk of his receiving yards. Tampa Bay hosts Minnesota for what is a must-win game in Week 13.

Travis Kelce – Numbers Dip Slightly Versus Tampa Bay

Following three weeks with at least 24.90 fantasy points, Kelce caught all eight of his targets for 82 yards and finished with 16.20 points. Despite catching just three passes, for a season low 31 yards against Denver in Week 7, Kelce remains as the top TE in Week 13 when Kansas City hosts Denver

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Roy Larking
ROY LARKING

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