2021 PGA Farmers Insurance Open - DFS Plays, Bets, and Fades

Ben Heisler and Mark Farris run through their favorite DFS tiers and bets for the PGA's Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, as well as their top fade of the slate.

Previous 2021 PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary

• The American Express: Si Woo Kim ($8,200)
  
• Sony Open: Kevin Na ($7,500)
• Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English ($8,700)
• RSM Classic: Robert Streb ($6,300)
• The Masters: Dustin Johnson ($10,000)
• Vivint Houston Open: Carlos Ortiz ($6,700)
• Bermuda Championship: Brian Gay ($6,300)
• Zozo Championship: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)
• CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak ($7,000)
• Shriners Hospitals for Children Open: Martin Laird ($6,400)
• Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia ($8,600)
• Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship: Hudson Swafford ($6,700)
• U.S. Open: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900)
• Safeway Open: Stewart Cink ($6,300)

BETTING ODDS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE...

Groupings and starting times for the first and second rounds of the Farmers Insurance Open@PGATOUR | @FarmersInsOpen pic.twitter.com/wYJ97n0vea

— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) January 26, 2021

$9,000+ Range

Ben Heisler: Xander Schauffele

DraftKings Price: Schauffele ($10,400)

DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: Schauffele (+1200) 

By now, many of you have likely seen and researched Xander's struggles at Torrey Pines. And while I typically keep course history in mind, I'm going to avoid it here; simply due to how locked he is at the moment.

"X" ranks first among the field in strokes gained: total, first in SG: putting, and top 20 in both SG: off-the-tee and SG: around-the-green. He hasn't finished worse than 17th over his last five rounds and has only had one negative "Bogeys Avoided" score since the 2020 Zozo Championship.

I understand the concern to pay $10K+ for a golfer who has only made the cut once in the five times he's played, but I'm banking on recent form and an extremely high level of confidence heading into this weekend.

ALTERNATIVE PLAYS:

Harris English ($9,800) | (+2200)

Viktor Hovland ($9,300) | (+3050)

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Mark Farris: Viktor Hovland + Xander Schauffele

DraftKings Price: Hovland ($9,300) | Schauffele (10,400)

DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: Hovland (+3050) | Schauffele (+1200)

I like both of these guys this week. In Xander’s last five tournaments, he’s placed T17 twice and has been top 5 in the other three. We’re playing on two different courses on Thursday and Friday and the South (more difficult) Course being played on the weekend. X is, to me, a grinding player that doesn’t let a bad shot ruin the next two. On my model that is 40% Current Form, 40% Key Stats and 20% Course History, neither of these guys are top 10. However, you can’t get all of the ones in the top 10 in a lineup and how many times in golf does the top 5 statistically finish 1st through 5th.

I always like Xander until he gives me a reason not to. However, for $1,100 less, I may actually prefer Viktor this week. (It also appears I like the last five letters of the alphabet.) Viktor isn’t the top 20 machine that Xander has been, but he has made every cut since the U.S. Open in September. He’s one of the cheaper guys in this range and his tee-to-green game has been top 15 in his last six tournaments.

Note: I do like John Rahm and Rory McIlroy this week as potential winners. But $11,300 and $11,000 respectively makes me hesitate from a lineup construction standpoint. 

BET THE 2021 FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN AT DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

$7,500 - $8,900

Ben Heisler: Billy Horschel 

DraftKings Price: $8,200

DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +4500 or 45/1

Horschel tends to go in waves and right now he's back to playing some of his best golf since July and August of 2020; finishing T2 and T7 and no worse than T25 in in four of five events.

This winter, he's back on a roll with a 5th place finish at the OHL, 24th at the Tournament of Champions and 7th at the Sony Open where he gained nine total strokes, eight of which game with a red-hot putter.

He hasn't missed a cut since late August at the Northern Trust. I'll continue to ride the wave with Billy until we both burn out, which hopefully can wait until after this week.

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Mark Farris: Cameron Smith 

DraftKings Price: $8,500

DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +6600 or 66/1

I wasn’t 100% sure which Cameron I was going with this week, but I actually like both. Cameron Smith has been a machine making cuts. He also had a streak of five top 25s prior to the Sony Open where he finished T62. It was a birdie-fest and his final round of +1 pushed him back.

Cam Davis ($7,900) is cheaper but hasn’t been as consistent. However, his last two events have netted a compiled score of (-33) with a 3rd place finish last week. Depending on you salary limitations, you can use either of these guys.

$7,400 and Under

Ben Heisler: Kramer Hickok

DraftKings Price: $6,800

DK Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +25000 or 250/1

If we're looking for bargains, why not search in the "recent form" section where Hickok has a T19 and T21 in his last two two appearances.

His putter really came to life at last week's American Express and he's been brilliant driving the ball in his last two tournaments; finishing with a combined 7.8 strokes gained off-the-tee. Via Rick Gehman, Hickok actually led the field at the American Express off-the-tee last week. 

The former Longhorn star is starting to get a little more name recognition, and he'll be motivated to tee it up with some of the bigger names on Tour this week.

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Mark Farris: John Huh 

DraftKings Price: $7,000

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +9000 or 90/1

"Hey Mark, who do you like here?" 

"Huh." 

"What?" 

"Huh!" 

Did you not understand me the first time? Yeah, John Huh!

Honestly, I haven’t written this guy up. However, I have played him multiple times since the new season began. He’s basically come out of nowhere, but has been consistently placing inside the top 20 (three times in his last 5 and one of the others was a T21). Coincidence or not, he also places 21st on my model - Huh? Or should I say uh Huh? (Yeah, I know it’s corny but visualize a head-nod there!)

“Double Ought” let me down last week and that’s highly possible with guys in this price range. But I think, at $7K and a made cut, you won’t be upset this week!

Torrey in January 😍#farmersinsuranceopen #tuneintotorrey pic.twitter.com/JlMGWNIVkC

— Farmers Ins Open (@FarmersInsOpen) January 15, 2021

Top Fade

Ben Heisler: Jason Day

DraftKings Price: $8,600

DraftKings Sportsbook Odds to Win: +3500

Day hasn't tee'd it up since the weekend before Thanksgiving when he finished 12th at the RSM. His putter carried him throughout the course, gaining 5.3 strokes alone. But with so much time away, I'm spending elsewhere this week.

Even with a T12 and T7 finish in two of his last three starts, his recent form still is a bit of a mess. Over his last 24 rounds, Day comes in 109 in SG: tee-to-green, 124th SG: ball striking, and 143rd in SG: approach. I'd much rather pivot down to someone like Horshel at $8,200, Cam Smith at $8,500 or even Ryan Palmer at $8,400 and feel much more secure.

I like playing and betting Day after he's gotten back into a rhythm with a few tournaments under his belt. Right now is not that time.

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Mark Farris: Brooks Koepka

DraftKings Price: $9,400

DraftKings Sportsbook Odds to Win: +3650

What to do here? It’s the site of a major, but it’s not a major, and BK is laser-focused on majors. I’m not willing to pay up for a guy that’s missed two cuts in a row, but he isn’t really the highest-price. I’m going to hedge. 

I’m personally not playing Koepka, but I see the script that would make you want to play him. He’s my fade, but saving almost $2K between him and Rahm makes me nervous.

ENTER LINEUPS FOR THE FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN THIS THURSDAY AT DRAFTKINGS