2021 Memorial Tournament - PGA Fantasy Plays, Best Bets, and Top Fades

SI Fantasy and Gambling analysts Ben Heisler and Mark Farris share their top PGA DFS tiers, best bets, and a top fade for the 2021 Memorial Tournament.

Ben Heisler | Jun 2, 2021

Previous 2021 PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary

Charles Schwab Challenge: Jason Kokrak ($9,000)
PGA Championship: Phil Mickelson ($6,700)
AT&T Byron Nelson: Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($6,900)
Wells Fargo Championship: Rory McIlroy ($10,000)
Valspar Classic: Sam Burns ($7,900)
RBC Heritage: Stewart Cink ($6,700)
The Masters Tournament: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,300)
Valero Texas Open: Jordan Spieth ($10,700)
World Golf Championship - Dell Technologies Match Play: Billy Horschel ($7,200)
The Honda Classic: Matt Jones ($7,400)
The Players Championship: Justin Thomas ($9,900)
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000)
Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa ($9,500)
The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa ($8,200)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger ($10,100)
Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka ($8,800)
Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed ($10,100)
The American Express: Si Woo Kim ($8,200)
Sony Open: Kevin Na ($7,500)
Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English ($8,700)

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$9,000+ Range

Ben Heisler: Tony Finau

DraftKings Price: $9,200

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +2000

Finau comes and goes in waves, and now is the right time to ride it.

After missing the cut in three of his last four tournaments, he's bounced back nicely with an 8th place finish at the PGA Championship, followed by a T20 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. What's remarkable is Finau had his worst round of putting in a year and a half, losing 4.4 strokes alone, but still managing to hang around.

I'm banking on Finau continuing to be outstanding tee-to-green (8th in strokes gained over his last 24 rounds) and bouncing back with his putter at a course that he has historically played very well at. Via Reid Fowler at PGATOUR.com, Finau has never finished worse than 13th at Muirfield since 2015, and is fourth in Strokes Gained: Total on Jack Nicklaus courses over the previous 24 rounds."

Additional Plays to Consider:

Jon Rahm ($11,100 | +1100) - Reigning champion a year ago. Always a threat to repeat. Favorite in the field.
Collin Morikawa ($10,400 | +1600) - I took him last week at Colonial, and while he didn't win, he finished T14 with a brilliant 68 on Sunday.
Viktor Hovland ($9,900 | +1400) - 4th in SG: total over his last 24 rounds. Only one missed cut in his last 29 events.
Patrick Reed ($9,100 | +3300) - Another golfer I was on last week who struggled. Reed tends to bounce back nicely after missed cuts; winning the Farmers Insurance Open in January and finishing T22 at THE PLAYERS.

Mark Farris: Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland

DraftKings Price: Morikawa: $10,400 | Hovland: $9,900

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: Morikawa: +1600 | Hovland: +1400

This field is loaded! Much like preparing for a major tournament, you have to pick someone and take a stand. This week, I’m going with two young guns with plenty of skill to play what will be a very difficult course. My logic? No one wants to go into a tough course playing badly. In the last five weeks: Morikawa (T14-T8-T7-T18-T41). Hovland (T30-T3-T3-T21-CUT).

Additional Plays to Consider:

Xander Schauffele ($9,700 | +1600) - Any week under $10K I like Xander.
Jordan Spieth ($11,300 | +1600) - I’m close to fading him simply due to pricing, but his current form is simply too good.

$7,500-$8,900 Range

Ben Heisler: Shane Lowry

DraftKings Price: $8,400

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +5000

Lowry has three top 10 finishes in 2021 and is coming off his best outing of the season with a 4th place finish at the PGA Championship.

Known for his short game, Lowry has been much improved in both driving distance and accuracy. Since March 14, Lowry is averaging over 300 yards with his driver and finishing just under 70% last week in driving accuracy (via FantasyLabs data).

Additional Plays to Consider:

Charley Hoffman ($8,300 | +4500) - You want to fade someone who's finished no worse than 18th over his past five rounds? Me neither!
Keegan Bradley ($8,000 | +4500) - Bradley's recent form is terrific, ranking in the 88th percentile in adjusted score and in the 90th for GIR (greens in regulation).
Gary Woodland ($7,900 | +5500) - Woodland has quietly been playing much better golf with a T5 and 14th place finish in two of his last three events. Good pivot off of Hoffman and Bradley who are likely to be more chalk.
Kevin Streelman ($7,500 | +5000) - Streelman's recent form is solid and he rarely plays a terrible round, likely making him safe to make the cut. The last outing above a 73 was back in early February at the Genesis Invitational. He also has two top 10s and two top 20s at Muirfield over the last six years.

Mark Farris: Joaquin Niemann & Louis Oosthuizen

DraftKings Price: Niemann: $8,800 | Oosthuizen: $8,500

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: Niemann: +3300 | Oosthuizen: +2000

Cut makers, cut makers, cut makers! The fairways here are wide and Niemann is usually better when fairways aren’t as tight. Plus, he’s 17 out of 17 on made cuts this year. He’s only been outside the top 40 in two of his last ten events and one was last week where there was, wait for it…tight fairways. He’s made two of three cuts at this tournament. He missed the cut last year, but he’s playing very well right now and I would tend to lean toward a result more similar to 2018 and 2019.

Louis is 11 out of 12 in made cuts. He’s got 3 top 10s in his last 5 events. He’s had a good finish here in 2018 (T13) and two mediocre events in 2019 and 2020 (T57 & T54). However, I’m going with good Louis this week given his current play. I love playing Oosthuizen. My only concern with him at any time is his insane ability to withdraw on me at the last minute when I play him heavily.

Additional Plays to Consider:

Cam Smith ($8,600 | +4500)

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,700 | +2800)

Billy Horschel ($8,100 | +4000) - Good history here and playing well.

Charley Hoffman ($8,300 | +4500) - Play Charley when he’s on a roll, and he’s on a roll!

$7,400 and Under Range

Ben Heisler: Troy Merritt

DraftKings Price: $6,900

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +12500

Merritt is raking up DraftKings points in bunches, ranking 5th over his last 24 rounds in DK points gained via FantasyNational. He's also been outstanding on and around the green, ranking 10th in SG: short game and 13th in SG: around-the-green, so he should be locked in on the bentgrass greens at Muirfield.

Additional Plays to Consider:

Brendan Steele ($6,500 | +20000) - Comfort with Muirfield a season ago, finishing 13rd at The Memorial. Reliable cut maker who has not missed a weekend in 2021.
Kyle Stanley ($6,100 | +12500) - Coming off a T8 at Colonial. If he can improve his putting, he'll hang around once again at bare bones pricing.

Mark Farris: Kyle Stanley

DraftKings Price: $6,100

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +12500

I was always taught to use the KISS method. Keep It Simple Stupid! In this case it’s “Kyle In-Sync Stanley!" His last 5 events have been T8-T26-T39-CUT-T14. For $6,100? Hell, yes!

In this loaded field, it saves you so much money. It also doesn’t hurt that he has had three top 10 finishes here in his career. 3rd - 2013, T6 - 2017, T2 - 2018.

Additional Play(s) to Consider:

Brendan Steele ($6,500 | +20000)
Wyndham Clark ($6,700 | +20000)

Top Fade

Ben Heisler: Bryson DeChambeau

DraftKings Price: $10,900

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +1800

Before I get called a hypocrite for playing Finau despite a struggling short stick, keep in mind that DeChambeau is $1,700 more expensive, but almost the same price point in their betting odds to win. It's just not a viable DFS play this week.

DeChambeau fell apart on Sunday at Kiawah Island with a final round of 77, and hasn't looked the part the last few weeks with 38th and 55th place finishes. His putter, which helped carry him through a remarkable 2020 season has disappeared, losing 5.2 strokes over his previous two tournaments.

He's always capable of bombing away and whipping the field in strokes gained, but I'll pass on his price tag at least for this week.

Additional Fade(s) to Consider

Cameron Smith ($8,600 | +4500) - Metrics are a bit deceiving. He's sixth in SG: total over his last 24 rounds, but played brutal at Kiawah and has not been great off the tee, losing strokes in four of his last six tournaments in that category.

More PGA Coverage from Sports Illustrated:

Published Jun 2, 2021

BEN HEISLER

Ben Heisler is an editor, host and analyst for Sports Illustrated's fantasy and gambling coverage. A Chicago native, Ben currently resides in the Kansas City area.