2021 Palmetto Championship at Congaree - DFS Plays, Bets, and Fades

SI Fantasy analyst Mark Farris breaks down his top plays for this week’s PGA Tour event.

Previous 2021 PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary

• The Memorial Tournament Presented by Nationwide: Patrick Cantlay ($9,500)
• Charles Schwab Challenge: Jason Kokrak ($9,000)
• PGA Championship: Phil Mickelson ($6,700)
• AT&T Byron Nelson: Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($6,900)
  
• Wells Fargo Championship: Rory McIlroy ($10,000)
• Valspar Classic: Sam Burns ($7,900)
• RBC Heritage: Stewart Cink ($6,700)
• The Masters Tournament: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,300)
• Valero Texas Open: Jordan Spieth ($10,700)
• World Golf Championship - Dell Technologies Match Play: Billy Horschel ($7,200)
• The Honda Classic: Matt Jones ($7,400)
• The Players Championship: Justin Thomas ($9,900)
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000)
• Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa ($9,500)
• The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa ($8,200)
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger ($10,100)
• Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka ($8,800)
• Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed ($10,100)
• The American Express: Si Woo Kim ($8,200)
• Sony Open: Kevin Na ($7,500)
• Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English ($8,700)

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$9,000+ Range

Tyrell Hatton

DraftKings Price: $10,200

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +1100

Unlike a lot of weeks, this tier has some names in it that you would not normally see. And, as with many weeks, I’m leery about playing the high-priced guys. Most of the time, it’s simply because of price and the fact that the remainder of the list makes it difficult to get six guys you’re comfortable with. This week, I can get D.J. or Koepka in a lineup and the general weakness of the field doesn’t worry me since it’s simply weak. After the top four or five guys, there isn’t much “value” when you consider the pricing.

I’m starting with Tyrrell Hatton as my pick this week and probably won’t go any higher than Matthew Fitzpatrick. D.J. and Brooks are clearly the dominant names in this field. However, next week is the U.S. Open. Why does that matter? Well, since D.J. and Koepka are both already in that field, and it is on the other side of the country, everything must go perfectly for these guys to have interest going into the weekend. If either has a bad first or second round and is close to missing the cut, you may see them fold up the tent and head to Torrey. I hate making this statement about any athlete and it’s not intended as a slam towards either of their work ethics. It’s simply the nature of golf and the fact that Majors are the priority for guys of this caliber.

Additional Play(s) to Consider

• Sungjae Im ($9,700 | +1600)
• Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500 | +2500)
• Ian Poulter ($9,200 | +2500) - Normally I don’t like him at this price, but I’ll do it this week
• Garrick Higgo ($9,000 | +4000) - Been hot on the Euro Tour and may be under the radar here

$7,500-$8,900 Range

Alex Noren, Brandt Snedeker, and Rafa Cabrera Bello (RCB)

DraftKings Price: Noren: $8,900 | Snedeker: $8,400 | RCB: $7,800

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: Noren +2500 | Snedeker +5000 | RCB: +8000

This week is where pricing and value meet the cliff. There are a few other guys I like here, but with no course history, it’s hard for me to differentiate since that is one of my favorite criteria.

Noren just finished top 15 at a very difficult course and has been top 25 in four of his last five events. Current form is probably my favorite criteria. That being said, let me introduce "Sneds." He’s been top 20 in three of his last five events and is usually someone that will limit his mistakes even on courses where he has little experience.

I’m throwing in RCB as my “escape from Rickie Fowler status” player of the week. Much like Fowler, RCB was always one of my favorite mid-range plays. Also, like Rickie, his game had followed this week’s “price to value” breakpoint off the proverbial cliff. I’m starting to trust Rickie again, but he’s not playing this week. RCB has three straight made cuts with more than adequate results given his $7,800 price tag.

Additional Plays to Consider

• Keith Mitchell ($8,800 | +4000)
• Lucas Glover ($8,600 | +3300)
• Vince Whaley ($7,700 | +8000) - I would really be willing to substitute him for any of the three I listed above. In fact, his price based on current form is fantastic!

$7,400 and Under Range

David Lipsky

DraftKings Price: $7,400

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: (+10000)

I'm sorry, Ican’t give you the $6,100 “KISS” call this week. We know someone down here is going to make the cut and play well. It’s just a matter of getting the right one. Other than a couple of missed cuts, Lipsky has been playing very well on the Korn Ferry Tour. In fact, I think this week’s tournament will have the same feel as a KFT event. Again, not a slam, just the let down the week prior to a Major.

Additional Play(s) to Consider

• James Hahn ($7,100 | +10000)
• Cole Hammer ($6,800 |+25000) - New kid from Texas. He’s bound to play well at some point and this somewhat “relaxed” field event and no real course history for anyone may help this week.

Top Fade

Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka

DraftKings Price: DJ ($11,400) | Koepka ($11,100)

DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: DJ: +750 | Koepka: +800

As I stated above, my intent is to fade both of these guys this week because I don’t quite trust either of them to be around for the weekend unless they are in a position to win Friday afternoon. Even if they make the cut and have no chance, the weekend rounds will simply be practice rounds. Given D.J. hasn’t been playing as much, I would favor him to stay over Brooks if I had to choose.