Fantasy Football Busts (2021): Five Stars To Avoid Based on ADP

Elite NFL players make up this list of busts you should avoid in your fantasy football leagues

Fantasy football championships are often won by not only targeting breakout players but also by avoiding stars who have too much risk attached to their average draft position (ADP) demand. Successful fantasy managers need to invest in players who avoid injury and avoid those with disclosed issues heading into the season. 

Which stars should you avoid in 2021? Let's dive in.

2021 FANTASY FOOTBALL BUSTS

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (ADP, 9)

One of my top bust candidates based upon ADP includes New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley. The oft-injured star running back is a huge risk as a first-round investment in 2021. Barkley has missed 17 games over the past two seasons due to injury. In addition, we have failed to see the former Penn State standout in live action this entire preseason. The Giants have a questionable offensive line, and Barkley could take a significant amount of hits at or behind the line of scrimmage. I will be limiting my exposure to Barkley and allowing my opponents to make the risky first-round investment.

Alternatives: Aaron Jones (ADP, 11), Jonathan Taylor (AD, 12)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP, 16)

The former LSU Tiger is a player who immensely frustrated his fantasy managers last season after many invested high draft capital on the featured back in the high-powered Kansas City offense. Fantasy managers will likely have to make a second-round investment to acquire Edwards-Helaire in 2021. In addition, it appears that CHE is already battling an ankle injury which could lead to a time-share with Darrell Williams. From all indications, the Kansas City coaching staff is high on utilizing Williams, who was used in short-yardage situations the last time we saw the Chiefs in real game action- Super Bowl LIV. If you decide to invest in Edwards-Helaire, I suggest grabbing Williams in the later rounds to limit risk.

Alternatives: Antonio Gibson (ADP, 18), Joe Mixon (ADP, 19)

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (ADP, 35)

Listing Swift in this feature is painful for me to do since I already own several shares of the second-year running back. As of Wednesday, there are serious concerns that Swift, who is dealing with a groin injury, will be ready for Week 1 against San Francisco. After missing three games in his rookie season in 2021, his ADP is becoming too risky of an investment. The Lions went out and added former Green Bay Packers running back Jamaal Williams in free agency and adding Jermar Jefferson in the draft. Playing for a club Vegas oddsmakers are predicting will be among the worst in 2021, Swift could often face a negative game script if Detroit is often trailing in the second half of games. For Swift to be worthy of third-round draft capital as his current ADP demands, he will need to play a full, healthy season with a role in the passing game. Groin injuries can often linger into the season, and as of now, I will not be adding more shares of Swift unless I hear some positive news come out of Detroit.

Alternatives: James Robinson (ADP, 39), Damien Harris (ADP, 66)

Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports

Wide Receivers

Kenny Golladay, New York Giants (ADP, 73)

Kenny Golladay is now a member of the New York Giants after spending four seasons with the Detroit Lions. The veteran receiver, who only played in five games last season, is dealing with a hamstring injury that has kept him sidelined since the beginning of August. Golladay joins an offense that consists of Sterling Shepard, rookie first-round pick Kadarius Toney, Evan Engram, and Darius Slayton. Golladay will need to develop chemistry with Daniel Jones to return value on mid-round draft capital. Missing a whole month of training camp severely casts doubt over that occurring in his first season in New York. At this point, Golladay is only worth adding as a WR4 in leagues that demand three starting wideouts. Golladay can be kept on your bench by using that roster construction until he displays that he is fully healthy and can be trusted in starting lineups.

Alternatives: Antonio Brown (ADP, 94), Corey Davis (ADP, 107)

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (ADP, 69)

We learned this week that Thomas has been placed on the PUP list - meaning he will miss at least the first six weeks of the 2021 season. As we know, Thomas, who is only two seasons removed from his prolific 2019 season, missed nine games last season with a groin injury. Unfortunately, Thomas was never able to recover fully, and surgery became necessary in June. Drafting Thomas (ADP 69) means fantasy managers are forced to invest sixth-round draft capital to secure the talented wideout. As a player who is easily a boom-or-bust candidate this season, Thomas should only be looked at in round 10 or later as a WR5.

Alternatives: Laviska Shenault Jr. (ADP, 105), Michael Pittman Jr. (ADP, 112)

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.