Week 6 Dynasty Stock Watch: Buy, Sell, Hold Trade Advice

Whether in rebuilding or win-now mode, here are some tips to consider before making your next trade

Entering Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season, we have a clear picture of the fantasy football landscape. First- and second-year players will dominate the analysis, along with starter caliber players with lots of trade value. In this weekly dynasty stock watch, the breakdowns will focus on both the long view for rebuilding teams as well as helping those in win-now mode.

Everybody wants to win it all - and if we can’t, then we want to secure the first pick in the next rookie draft. Sure, it’s possible for you to squeak into the postseason as a sixth seed and hit a hot streak. However, our intent is to either be the best team with a ton of valuable assets or dive into rebuilding mode -- moving on from most of your best players to load up on draft picks. And to make my intentions known, it’s perfectly acceptable to tank if there are no rules against it -- as long as you field a competitive team. Even if it’s not against the rules, nobody likes the guy who doesn’t update his lineup every week.

Let’s ring the dynasty stock watch opening bell:

QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

We’re friends, right? We can speak plainly with each other and have a rational, nuanced conversation. Well throw all that out the window, because I’m coming out swinging. Hurts just isn’t any good at what is necessary to be a consistent and productive quarterback. He may very well be the Eagles’ QB for the next two or three years, but there will be more downs than ups. At this rate, there might be more incompletions than completions. Last night, he completed 46% of his passes. On paper and for fantasy managers, all seems well. He’s productive and among the top 10 at his position in fantasy scoring. But he can’t convert third downs with his arm. Hurts can’t place passes like he needs to on intermediate routes.

I don’t believe “buy low and sell high” is the foundational mantra in dynasty, as it may be in the stock market. Yet in this case, I’m selling high in rebuilds while seeking a very high 2022 first and third in return. Could Hurts make the leap in Year 3? I’ll let somebody else toil over that one.

Win-Now: HOLD

Rebuild: SELL

WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

They say you should never kick a man when he’s down. Well, Robinson has been down for a while, so think of it like you’re kicking the tires on a very bad situation. ARob’s value is in the tank after an atrocious start. I don’t see a lot of wiggle room here with the Bears’ offense already so one-dimensional. Chicago is averaging an atrocious 113 passing yards per game. You’d think they were running the wishbone, right? It can’t get worse—maybe it can, but let’s give Justin Fields the benefit of the doubt. If I’m 4-1 or 5-0 right now, I want Robinson if the price is right. If I’m rebuilding, then I should’ve gotten out sooner! If I’m selling him now, I want Kadarius Toney or a late first. If I’m buying him, I’d offer a 2023 early second.

Win-Now: BUY

Rebuild: SELL

WR Quez Watkins, Philadelphia Eagles

This early in the career of a playmaker, I’m less concerned with opportunity—which isn’t great considering what I just said about Hurts—and I’m more concerned with agility, speed, burst, hands and route-running. I love all of it with Watkins except for his hands. He still needs some polish on the finer details of being a receiver. Watkins is a burner and this offense is prime for a player like him to emerge. His price tag will be bumped up significantly compared to what it was throughout the preseason, especially with Watkins already out-snapping Jalen Reagor. The tricky thing here is the guy who has him probably likes him a lot. I’m maxed out at a 2022 mid-second-round pick. Your best-case scenario here is buying him from a win-now who is in need of running back help. And I can’t say it enough: always pick on the guy who needs running back help. Use his anxiety to your benefit!

Win-Now: BUY

Rebuild: BUY

TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

The moral of the story with this year’s tight end group is you should follow the productive offenses if you’re fading the position. Maybe lightning didn’t strike twice with Robert Tonyan, but he’s going to have a great stretch and score a heaping handful of touchdowns in a couple games. This year’s breakouts have been Knox and Dallas’ Dalton Schultz. And that’s breakouts for any position, not just tight end.

What they have in common is they are not their team’s perceived top receiving option. For too long, we’ve been spoiled by weak, uneven WR corps with clearcut, top-notch tight ends like Darren Waller or Mark Andrews. The tempting dalliances offered by guys like Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson or Noah Fant. Or spoiled by Travis Kelce, who is basically a Madden create-a-player personified. Knox is your classic third-year breakout who just needed a little seasoning and the coronation of Josh Allen as an elite QB.

I’ll get to the point: The bottom line is there is positional scarcity at tight end right now. We have a few good players and a lot of boom-or-bust results so far in this young season. Many of the third- and fourth-tier options coming into the year are delivering unimpressive results. Tight ends beyond the elite tier are extremely touchdown-dependent, none more so than Knox. I want to believe—I really do—but the guy has five touchdowns over his last four games. The former Ole Miss standout has 24 targets and he’s caught 18 of them. That’s a more than respectable 75% catch rate. Do we believe he is the next Kelce? I’ll err on the side of mediocrity. I believe it’s unsustainable. If you stick with him, I’ll tell you the same thing I told Icarus: You’re flying too close to the sun.

We’re only an hour into prom and I’m asking you to ditch your crush for the weird girl from band camp. But if you love someone, let them go.

I’ll extend an olive branch: If Knox is your best tight end, keep him and ride it out. There’s no reason to look a gift horse in the mouth. If you have somebody else who is providing TE1 production, let Knox go and fortify another part of your roster, unless it’s a premium TE league. (Lots of caveats on this one!)

Win-Now: HOLD

Rebuild: SELL